Forex Knowledge 31 JAN 2014 currency Report.
Market will continue to keep an eye on the emerging markets, but it has been relatively calm overnight in a large part of the celebration of the Chinese new year in Asia, out today. The Central Bank will meet in Mexico today, but it is not a great candidate for an interest rate hike.
Information about the main event of the calendar is the inflation in the euro area. Today, the German inflation data have not changed our forecast of the euro area HICP inflation is unchanged at 0.8% y/y in January. We expect core inflation to be edged with a slightly higher, but this has been offset by lower energy and food prices, inflation. Our forecast is a notch below the consensus and we are not even seeing a downside risk to it.
Otherwise, the personal spending and income for December and the Chicago PMI data for January is the main focus of the calendar.
In addition, we have a flood of Central Bank interventions. The ECB's Nowotny, Noyer, Rimsevics Coeure and is scheduled to speak today. The Fed Fischer (hawk, voter) and George (neutral, no voter) speaks at a later date.
Market sentiment from yesterday's session were to focus on the emerging markets continued to SAP-night wobbles. The S P500 rose by 1,1% in & us session up to the beginning of the year, who hit yesterday. 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp overnight for a second announcement of lower risk aversion.
Asian stock indexes are also trading in negative territory this morning, the Nikkei fell by 1.0%. China has been closed due to the new year holiday starts today, namely the Chinese news services will dry up in the next week. However, the official China manufacturing PMI published yet on Saturday, so this could be the next major event on the emerging market currencies. As the article EM in the turmoil of the claim: it's not over until the Chinese woman who sings troubles EM currencies might continue as long as the concern over China's still on the agenda.
Published overnight Japanese data point to the fact that the Japanese economy is still in a power forward, despite the upcoming consumption tax consumption tax hike in April. Industrial strength has confirmed JMMA and Markit's Manufacturing PMI for January, increasing 34.3 56.6 – the highest level since 2006. Overall, the data suggest that growth exceeds 3% q/q in Q4 and Q1 14 ann. 13. Please note, however, that industrial production was slightly weaker than expected.
Japan's inflation continues to edge more toward the 2 percent inflation target, the Bank of Japan CPI pl. fresh food (the BoJ) increased by 1.3% y/y in December, up 1.1% y/y in the next few months, we expect growth to decelerate inflation clearly. (adjusted consumption tax hike).
EUR/USD: 1.3587 the GOAL, STOP SELLING the ORIGINAL 1.3490 1.3642
USD/JPY: short 265.09 100.96; STOP at 103.81
GBP/USD: POSSIBLY SELL
USD/CHF: buy. 9011 FOR. 9,358; 8958 stop.
AUD/USD: POSSIBLY BUY
USD/CAD: LONG 1.1088 REVISED 1.1349 OBJ REVISED STOP 1.1100
EUR/JPY: Verify SELL 139.93 137.77, STOP 144.05
The EUR/GBP: LONG HAS. 8255 FOR. 8394; 8205 stop.
LOOK TO SELL THE EUR/CHF:
EUR/CAD: buy 1.5070 1.5450 STOP at 1.4985
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY BUY
short. 8275 modified. 8084; CHECK OUT the stop 8310
Economy:When positive forming in the United States and the ongoing woes of the emerging markets, money flowed back into dollars and out of bonds to see the USD Index posting the biggest one-day gain this year. U.s. Treasury yields and equities and the safe havens ' down it was a day the risk is for investors.
The u.s. economy will accelerate to 3.2%, 2013 Q3, by supporting the FBI decided to taper. Growth at this rate, it suggests the economy is steady, unemployment and population growth outpace.
But investors are still concerned about the depreciation of their currencies in emerging markets to continue in spite of the central banks of Turkey and South Africa, raising interest rates this week. It is likely they were expecting more of a tightening of monetary policy, while hedge funds continue to drive down the currency. Companies are buying DOLLAR bonds to protect their currency risk.
China's factory production contracts for the first time in 6 months the second largest economy in the world to take care of.
INDEXES:Taking into account the positive U.s. data equities indexes throughout the United States, Europe and Asia are considered to be above a key support levels but it was only on the Nasdaq over the previous days high.
USD:Posting the biggest one-day rise this year
AUD: The PPI came in higher-than-expected 0.2% compared to 0.7% less than expected. Regardless of the AUDUSD gathered up the 0.8820 resistance. Break this level confirms the double bottom, but we are still within the technically bearish, bearish channel and 200eMA.
CAD: The Canadian dollar weakening to lose the momentum of the bearish
COMMODITIES: Gold sell less than 1250, money flowed into safe assets and broke the bullish channel, which was built because of the low 1179. 1250 is cut.
The silver will remain bearish channel than silver and gold correlation seems to have returned.
WTI continues to look strong, despite stalling below 98.50 resistance. The daily chart is likely to attract a bullish swing traders goal of 100.
Gold: Breaks the ascending channel and below support
Even though we were bullish channel and above the 1250 to buy the dip looked like a technically good and my bias was the continuation of a back high in 1278. Well ... It clearly occurred after the positive Us data, valuable yellow metal becoming dumping and money flows in USD.
As a result, gold is a bearish session from December and break out of the channel and to less than 1250. Rough close this key level of bias is now a short-side 1232 is likely to be the target.
Although the weekly and monthly pivots are also consistent with the key levels, I have deleted them on the last trading day of the month chart (such as new levels of scale on Monday).
1250 is now a key level to watch and probably against, so rally up here can also attract a bearish swing traders.
If we break above 1250, 1268-70 is probably the stalling point is at the heart of the S/R level and previous swing high.
If we close today on the grounds of the weekly chart suggests a turning point ...
SILVER: Break out of the bearish consolidation targeting 6.30 pm low
So it was silver, which turned out to be to tell the "truth" between silver and gold as it rejected over the resistance and remain bearish channel 20.50. For now, at least, the correlation between two metal appears back on track, which is what also encourages my rough goals for both markets.
As we stopped in support of my bias is the modest retracement towards 19.50-60 before again downtrend.
EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
Market will continue to keep an eye on the emerging markets, but it has been relatively calm overnight in a large part of the celebration of the Chinese new year in Asia, out today. The Central Bank will meet in Mexico today, but it is not a great candidate for an interest rate hike.
Information about the main event of the calendar is the inflation in the euro area. Today, the German inflation data have not changed our forecast of the euro area HICP inflation is unchanged at 0.8% y/y in January. We expect core inflation to be edged with a slightly higher, but this has been offset by lower energy and food prices, inflation. Our forecast is a notch below the consensus and we are not even seeing a downside risk to it.
Otherwise, the personal spending and income for December and the Chicago PMI data for January is the main focus of the calendar.
In addition, we have a flood of Central Bank interventions. The ECB's Nowotny, Noyer, Rimsevics Coeure and is scheduled to speak today. The Fed Fischer (hawk, voter) and George (neutral, no voter) speaks at a later date.
Market sentiment from yesterday's session were to focus on the emerging markets continued to SAP-night wobbles. The S P500 rose by 1,1% in & us session up to the beginning of the year, who hit yesterday. 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp overnight for a second announcement of lower risk aversion.
Asian stock indexes are also trading in negative territory this morning, the Nikkei fell by 1.0%. China has been closed due to the new year holiday starts today, namely the Chinese news services will dry up in the next week. However, the official China manufacturing PMI published yet on Saturday, so this could be the next major event on the emerging market currencies. As the article EM in the turmoil of the claim: it's not over until the Chinese woman who sings troubles EM currencies might continue as long as the concern over China's still on the agenda.
Published overnight Japanese data point to the fact that the Japanese economy is still in a power forward, despite the upcoming consumption tax consumption tax hike in April. Industrial strength has confirmed JMMA and Markit's Manufacturing PMI for January, increasing 34.3 56.6 – the highest level since 2006. Overall, the data suggest that growth exceeds 3% q/q in Q4 and Q1 14 ann. 13. Please note, however, that industrial production was slightly weaker than expected.
Japan's inflation continues to edge more toward the 2 percent inflation target, the Bank of Japan CPI pl. fresh food (the BoJ) increased by 1.3% y/y in December, up 1.1% y/y in the next few months, we expect growth to decelerate inflation clearly. (adjusted consumption tax hike).
EUR/USD: 1.3587 the GOAL, STOP SELLING the ORIGINAL 1.3490 1.3642
USD/JPY: short 265.09 100.96; STOP at 103.81
GBP/USD: POSSIBLY SELL
USD/CHF: buy. 9011 FOR. 9,358; 8958 stop.
AUD/USD: POSSIBLY BUY
USD/CAD: LONG 1.1088 REVISED 1.1349 OBJ REVISED STOP 1.1100
EUR/JPY: Verify SELL 139.93 137.77, STOP 144.05
The EUR/GBP: LONG HAS. 8255 FOR. 8394; 8205 stop.
LOOK TO SELL THE EUR/CHF:
EUR/CAD: buy 1.5070 1.5450 STOP at 1.4985
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY BUY
short. 8275 modified. 8084; CHECK OUT the stop 8310
Economy:When positive forming in the United States and the ongoing woes of the emerging markets, money flowed back into dollars and out of bonds to see the USD Index posting the biggest one-day gain this year. U.s. Treasury yields and equities and the safe havens ' down it was a day the risk is for investors.
The u.s. economy will accelerate to 3.2%, 2013 Q3, by supporting the FBI decided to taper. Growth at this rate, it suggests the economy is steady, unemployment and population growth outpace.
But investors are still concerned about the depreciation of their currencies in emerging markets to continue in spite of the central banks of Turkey and South Africa, raising interest rates this week. It is likely they were expecting more of a tightening of monetary policy, while hedge funds continue to drive down the currency. Companies are buying DOLLAR bonds to protect their currency risk.
China's factory production contracts for the first time in 6 months the second largest economy in the world to take care of.
INDEXES:Taking into account the positive U.s. data equities indexes throughout the United States, Europe and Asia are considered to be above a key support levels but it was only on the Nasdaq over the previous days high.
USD:Posting the biggest one-day rise this year
AUD: The PPI came in higher-than-expected 0.2% compared to 0.7% less than expected. Regardless of the AUDUSD gathered up the 0.8820 resistance. Break this level confirms the double bottom, but we are still within the technically bearish, bearish channel and 200eMA.
CAD: The Canadian dollar weakening to lose the momentum of the bearish
COMMODITIES: Gold sell less than 1250, money flowed into safe assets and broke the bullish channel, which was built because of the low 1179. 1250 is cut.
The silver will remain bearish channel than silver and gold correlation seems to have returned.
WTI continues to look strong, despite stalling below 98.50 resistance. The daily chart is likely to attract a bullish swing traders goal of 100.
Gold: Breaks the ascending channel and below support
Even though we were bullish channel and above the 1250 to buy the dip looked like a technically good and my bias was the continuation of a back high in 1278. Well ... It clearly occurred after the positive Us data, valuable yellow metal becoming dumping and money flows in USD.
As a result, gold is a bearish session from December and break out of the channel and to less than 1250. Rough close this key level of bias is now a short-side 1232 is likely to be the target.
Although the weekly and monthly pivots are also consistent with the key levels, I have deleted them on the last trading day of the month chart (such as new levels of scale on Monday).
1250 is now a key level to watch and probably against, so rally up here can also attract a bearish swing traders.
If we break above 1250, 1268-70 is probably the stalling point is at the heart of the S/R level and previous swing high.
If we close today on the grounds of the weekly chart suggests a turning point ...
SILVER: Break out of the bearish consolidation targeting 6.30 pm low
So it was silver, which turned out to be to tell the "truth" between silver and gold as it rejected over the resistance and remain bearish channel 20.50. For now, at least, the correlation between two metal appears back on track, which is what also encourages my rough goals for both markets.
As we stopped in support of my bias is the modest retracement towards 19.50-60 before again downtrend.
EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
No comments:
Post a Comment