EUR/USD: 1.3642 the GOAL, STOP BUY 1.3729 1.3581
The USD/JPY FELL 75.49, possible to SELL: SELL
GBP/USD: buy 1.6595 1.6694 objective; STOP at 1.6550
USD/CHF: 9027.8931 OBJECTIVE, STOP to sell.. 9087
AUD/USD: LOOK TO SELL THE
USD/CAD: buy 1.1088 MODIFIED 1.1349 OBJ, stop 1.1018
EUR/JPY: for a LONG TIME is the ORIGINAL 141.50 85.32; STOP at 140.90
THE EUR/GBP: POSSIBLY BUY
EUR/CHF: POSSIBLY SELL
EUR/CAD: buy 1.5170 1.5450 STOP at 1.5110
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY WANT TO BUY
: long at. 8300.8433 target. 8250 to a halt.
REVIEW
EURUSD: 1.3815-1.3830 on the upside, 1.3405-1.3420 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.8945-0.8960 on the upside, 0.8670-0.8685 on the downside.
USDJPY: 105.45-105.60 on the upside, 102.60-102.75 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6720-1.6735 on the upside, 1.6410-1.6425 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1285-1.1300 on the upside, 1.0840-1.0855 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8360-0.8375 on the upside, 0.8235-0.8250 on the downside.
EURJPY: 142.35-142.50 on the upside, 140.65-140.80 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8280-0.8295 on the upside, 0.8115-0.8130 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9235-0.9250 on the upside, 0.8880-0.8895 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 94.20-94.35 on the upside, 89.10-89.25 on the downside.
EURAUD: 1.5830-1.5845 on the upside, 1.4990-1.5005 on the downside
CURRENCIES
The Dollar has taken a beating against the G3. The Dollar Index (80.474) has come down sharply and could be in danger of dipping to 80.00.
The Euro (1.3680) saw a stellar rise yesterday, first breaking above the earlier resistance at 1.3600 on the strong Eurozone PMI data and then benefitting from the sharp dip in the US-10Yr yield to 2.79%. The rally has recouped all of last week's losses. A further rise towards 1.38 could be seen unless selling comes in at current levels and pushes the market below 1.3650.
Dollar-Yen (103.51) dropped sharply yesterday to test 55-day MA at 102.97 yesterday, but has bounced a bit from there today. Our bullishness has received a bit of a setback and maybe we have to consider chances of a sideways range of 103-105 for a while. The Euro-Yen Cross (141.60) has been steady yesterday as both the Euro and the Yen have gained equally against the Dollar. Expect a sideways range of 141-143 for a few days.
The Pound (1.6632) is maintaining its upmove and a rise past 1.6650 can see it target 1.69-70. The Aussie (0.8764) fell sharply yesterday, hit by the weak Chinese PMI, and could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (61.9325) might move up today on weakness in Emerging Market currencies in the wake of the devaluation of the Argentinian Peso yesterday. wake of the devaluation of the Argentinian Peso yesterday.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.78%) saw sharp drop and fell below the support near 2.82%-2.83%, as a rise in demand for Haven Assets increased the money inflow. The Existing Home Sales data coming out lower than expected and the devaluation in the Argentinean Peso, being a few reasons for the increased demand. It is difficult to say as to where the Treasury yields will move from here. We may see the 10Yr now testing long term support near 2.50%.
The German 10Yr (1.71%) also dropped after a strong PMI release in Germany which in turn saw a strong rise in Euro. It is trading near the lower end of our range of 1.70%-1.85% and we may see it targeting the support near 1.70%-1.65% if the fall continues. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.02%) rose after the drop in the yields.
The Japan 10Yr (0.63%) has also dropped after a steady rise in the 2 days. We may see a ranged movement between 0.60% - 0.70%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.14%) has risen.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.66%) saw a further rise yesterday. We can expect a ranged movement between 8.60% - 8.75% till the RBI policy meeting early next week.
DATA TODAY
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
... Expected 1.30 % ...Previous 0.90 %
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3665 – 1.3750
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.3678 SL 1.3646 TP 1.3739
EUR/JPY
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6605 – 1.6705
Trend: Strong Up
Buy at 1.6619 SL 1.6587 TP 1.6693
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8995 – 0.8910
Trend: Down
Sell at 0.8984 SL 0.9016 TP 0.8919
USD/JPY
Trading range: 103.65 – 102.80
Trend: Strong Down
Sell at 103.55 SL 103.87 TP 102.8
The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3611, 1.3588, 1.3550 – 1.3745, 1.3768, 1.3806
USD/JPY 102.86, 102.60, 102.18 – 104.24, 104.50, 104.92
GBP/USD 1.6539, 1.6511, 1.6465 – 1.6699, 1.6727, 1.6773
USD/CHF 0.8912, 0.8887, 0.8847 – 0.8992, 0.9017, 0.9057
The USD/JPY FELL 75.49, possible to SELL: SELL
GBP/USD: buy 1.6595 1.6694 objective; STOP at 1.6550
USD/CHF: 9027.8931 OBJECTIVE, STOP to sell.. 9087
AUD/USD: LOOK TO SELL THE
USD/CAD: buy 1.1088 MODIFIED 1.1349 OBJ, stop 1.1018
EUR/JPY: for a LONG TIME is the ORIGINAL 141.50 85.32; STOP at 140.90
THE EUR/GBP: POSSIBLY BUY
EUR/CHF: POSSIBLY SELL
EUR/CAD: buy 1.5170 1.5450 STOP at 1.5110
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY WANT TO BUY
: long at. 8300.8433 target. 8250 to a halt.
REVIEW
EURUSD: 1.3815-1.3830 on the upside, 1.3405-1.3420 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.8945-0.8960 on the upside, 0.8670-0.8685 on the downside.
USDJPY: 105.45-105.60 on the upside, 102.60-102.75 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6720-1.6735 on the upside, 1.6410-1.6425 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1285-1.1300 on the upside, 1.0840-1.0855 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8360-0.8375 on the upside, 0.8235-0.8250 on the downside.
EURJPY: 142.35-142.50 on the upside, 140.65-140.80 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8280-0.8295 on the upside, 0.8115-0.8130 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9235-0.9250 on the upside, 0.8880-0.8895 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 94.20-94.35 on the upside, 89.10-89.25 on the downside.
EURAUD: 1.5830-1.5845 on the upside, 1.4990-1.5005 on the downside
CURRENCIES
The Dollar has taken a beating against the G3. The Dollar Index (80.474) has come down sharply and could be in danger of dipping to 80.00.
The Euro (1.3680) saw a stellar rise yesterday, first breaking above the earlier resistance at 1.3600 on the strong Eurozone PMI data and then benefitting from the sharp dip in the US-10Yr yield to 2.79%. The rally has recouped all of last week's losses. A further rise towards 1.38 could be seen unless selling comes in at current levels and pushes the market below 1.3650.
Dollar-Yen (103.51) dropped sharply yesterday to test 55-day MA at 102.97 yesterday, but has bounced a bit from there today. Our bullishness has received a bit of a setback and maybe we have to consider chances of a sideways range of 103-105 for a while. The Euro-Yen Cross (141.60) has been steady yesterday as both the Euro and the Yen have gained equally against the Dollar. Expect a sideways range of 141-143 for a few days.
The Pound (1.6632) is maintaining its upmove and a rise past 1.6650 can see it target 1.69-70. The Aussie (0.8764) fell sharply yesterday, hit by the weak Chinese PMI, and could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (61.9325) might move up today on weakness in Emerging Market currencies in the wake of the devaluation of the Argentinian Peso yesterday. wake of the devaluation of the Argentinian Peso yesterday.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.78%) saw sharp drop and fell below the support near 2.82%-2.83%, as a rise in demand for Haven Assets increased the money inflow. The Existing Home Sales data coming out lower than expected and the devaluation in the Argentinean Peso, being a few reasons for the increased demand. It is difficult to say as to where the Treasury yields will move from here. We may see the 10Yr now testing long term support near 2.50%.
The German 10Yr (1.71%) also dropped after a strong PMI release in Germany which in turn saw a strong rise in Euro. It is trading near the lower end of our range of 1.70%-1.85% and we may see it targeting the support near 1.70%-1.65% if the fall continues. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.02%) rose after the drop in the yields.
The Japan 10Yr (0.63%) has also dropped after a steady rise in the 2 days. We may see a ranged movement between 0.60% - 0.70%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.14%) has risen.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.66%) saw a further rise yesterday. We can expect a ranged movement between 8.60% - 8.75% till the RBI policy meeting early next week.
DATA TODAY
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
... Expected 1.30 % ...Previous 0.90 %
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3665 – 1.3750
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.3678 SL 1.3646 TP 1.3739
EUR/JPY
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6605 – 1.6705
Trend: Strong Up
Buy at 1.6619 SL 1.6587 TP 1.6693
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8995 – 0.8910
Trend: Down
Sell at 0.8984 SL 0.9016 TP 0.8919
USD/JPY
Trading range: 103.65 – 102.80
Trend: Strong Down
Sell at 103.55 SL 103.87 TP 102.8
The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3611, 1.3588, 1.3550 – 1.3745, 1.3768, 1.3806
USD/JPY 102.86, 102.60, 102.18 – 104.24, 104.50, 104.92
GBP/USD 1.6539, 1.6511, 1.6465 – 1.6699, 1.6727, 1.6773
USD/CHF 0.8912, 0.8887, 0.8847 – 0.8992, 0.9017, 0.9057
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