Wednesday, 22 January 2014

22 JAN 2014

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (81.08) is struggling near the major supply zone of 81.50 now as it remains in an uptrend above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.
Euro (1.3565) is in a feeble bounce from 1.35 and it may extend to1.3620-30 at most, but selling pressure may come at the higher levels any time. Below 1.35, the drop may extend to 1.333-1.34. The trend remains firmly down.
Dollar-Yen (104.36) has bounced back from our support zone of 103.65-104 to reassert the longer term uptrend. The rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.58) has bounced from our target support zone of 140.30-50. It may reach 142-142.15 and 143-143.30 above that. The drop may extend below 140 towards 138.50-140.
The Pound (1.6482) is in the 5th week of sideways trade between 1.66 and 1.63. Good Support at 1.63 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.
The Aussie (0.8855) has bounced from our major long term support at 0.87-0.8720 and if it can stay above 0.89 now, the bounce can extend to 0.9050-0.91.
Dollar Rupee (61.90) may open higher today near 62.05-10. It broke above the major supply zone of 61.70-75 and almost reached our initial target of 61.95 in the same day. It may reach our next target of 62.10 today and may extend the rally further towards 62.25-30.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.84%) remained unchanged yesterday after falling from 3.04% since 1st January 2014. It is now testing support in a near term uptrend at current levels and we may see a bounce from here targeting 3.00%.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) also remained unchanged yesterday. The yield has fallen from 1.95% on 3rd January 2014 and we can now see it targeting a trend support near 1.65%-1.70%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.10%) fell from a resistance near -1.00% and can target -1.20% in a long term downtrend.
The Japan 10Yr (0.67%) has seen a rise of 1 basis point since yesterday. The 10Yr yield curve is ranged between 0.75% to 0.50%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.15%) has been consolidating and can target 2.10%. The BOJ Meeting got concluded today and there was no change in the key interest rates.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.55%) has been falling since 27th December 2013 from 8.96%. We may now see it targeting 8.50%-8.45%.
DATA TODAY1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST AU CPI
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 1.20 % ...Actual 0.80%
3:00 GMT or 8:30 IST BOJ Meeting
...Previous <0.10 % ...Actual <0.10 %
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Unemp
...Expected 7.30 % ...Previous 7.40 %

15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %

1.365 has been a pivotal level I have been monitoring these past 2 weeks as I considered this a line between continued gains or continued losses. After we finally broke through this level and the primary bullish trendline, my next targets remain 1.348 and 1.332. But is it really that straight forward?

EUR/USD


EUR/JPY


EURUSD: 1.3610-1.3625 on the upside, 1.3475-1.3490 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.8925-0.8940 on the upside, 0.8700-0.8715 on the downside.
USDJPY: 105.05-105.20 on the upside, 103.55-103.70 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6545-1.6560 on the upside, 1.6340-1.6355 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1020-1.1035 on the upside, 1.0805-1.0820 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8385-0.8400 on the upside, 0.8150-0.8165 on the downside.
EURJPY: 142.20-142.35 on the upside, 140.20-140.35 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8265-0.8280 on the upside, 0.8140-0.8155 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9155-0.9170 on the upside, 0.9040-0.9055 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 92.80-92.95 on the upside, 91.10-91.25 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.5505-1.5520 on the upside, 1.5105-1.5120 on the downside.

GBP/USD


USD/CHF


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