Tuesday, 21 January 2014

21 jan 2013 Report

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (81.17) faces the major supply zone of 81.50 now as it remains in an uptrend above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.
Euro (1.3536) has hit a major trendline at 1.3508 and the RSI shows the same. If 5 waves are finished at that low, a bounce may be expected towards 1.36-1.37, but selling pressure may come at the higher levels. Below 1.35, the drop may extend to 1.333-1.34. The trend remains firmly down.
Dollar-Yen (104.57) is bounced back from our support zone of 103.65-104 to reassert the longer term uptrend. The rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.73) has bounced from our target support zone of 140.30-50. It may reach 142-142.15 and 143-143.30 above that. The drop may extend below 140 towards 138.50-140.
The Pound (1.6425) is in the 5th week of sideways trade between 1.66 and 1.63. Good Support at 1.63 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.
The Aussie (0.8834) has bounced from our major long term support at 0.87-0.8720 and if it can stay above 0.89 now, the bounce can extend to 0.9050-0.91.
Dollar Rupee (61.62) may open flat to negative today near 61.55-60. It keeps trading below our resistance zone of 61.70-75 and could fall again towards 61.30-40 unless it breaks above this supply zone. A successful break above 61.70-75 would extend the rally to 61.95-62.10.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.84%) remained stable before the release of the Home Sales data and the FOMC meeting later this month. The 5Yr (1.64%) and the 30Yr (3.76%) also remained stable. No major movement is expected in the yields for now.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) also remained stable. The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.22%) fell further towards the support zone of -28%-0.30%. The UK 10Yr (2.83%) remained unchanged before the release of the BOE Minutes today.
The Japan 10Yr (0.66%) remained unchanged before the BOJ Meeting that started today. Any monetary decision regarding the change in the key interest rates will have a huge impact in the bond market. It needs to be watched.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.52%) dropped the most as the Central Bank starts to increase liquidity in the markets ahead of the RBI Meeting by buying debts through open market operations.

DATA TODAYNo major data release today.

EURUSD: 1.3585-1.3600 on the upside, 1.3455-1.3470 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.8840-0.8855 on the upside, 0.8730-0.8745 on the downside.

USDJPY: 105.15-105.30 on the upside, 103.35-103.50 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.6515-1.6530 on the upside, 1.6300-1.6315 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0980-1.0995 on the upside, 1.0790-1.0805 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.8355-0.8370 on the upside, 0.8135-0.8150 on the downside.

EURJPY: 142.60-142.75 on the upside, 139.90-140.05 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8355-0.8370 on the upside, 0.8155-0.8170 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9140-0.9155 on the upside, 0.9035-0.9050 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 92.90-93.05 on the upside, 90.40-90.55 on the downside.


EURAUD: 1.5445-1.5460 on the upside, 1.5305-1.5320 on the downside.

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

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