Forex Knowledge 31 JAN 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 31 JAN 2014 currency Report.

Market will continue to keep an eye on the emerging markets, but it has been relatively calm overnight in a large part of the celebration of the Chinese new year in Asia, out today. The Central Bank will meet in Mexico today, but it is not a great candidate for an interest rate hike.
Information about the main event of the calendar is the inflation in the euro area. Today, the German inflation data have not changed our forecast of the euro area HICP inflation is unchanged at 0.8% y/y in January. We expect core inflation to be edged with a slightly higher, but this has been offset by lower energy and food prices, inflation. Our forecast is a notch below the consensus and we are not even seeing a downside risk to it.
Otherwise, the personal spending and income for December and the Chicago PMI data for January is the main focus of the calendar.
In addition, we have a flood of Central Bank interventions. The ECB's Nowotny, Noyer, Rimsevics Coeure and is scheduled to speak today. The Fed Fischer (hawk, voter) and George (neutral, no voter) speaks at a later date.
Market sentiment from yesterday's session were to focus on the emerging markets continued to SAP-night wobbles. The S P500 rose by 1,1% in & us session up to the beginning of the year, who hit yesterday. 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp overnight for a second announcement of lower risk aversion.
Asian stock indexes are also trading in negative territory this morning, the Nikkei fell by 1.0%. China has been closed due to the new year holiday starts today, namely the Chinese news services will dry up in the next week. However, the official China manufacturing PMI published yet on Saturday, so this could be the next major event on the emerging market currencies. As the article EM in the turmoil of the claim: it's not over until the Chinese woman who sings troubles EM currencies might continue as long as the concern over China's still on the agenda.
Published overnight Japanese data point to the fact that the Japanese economy is still in a power forward, despite the upcoming consumption tax consumption tax hike in April. Industrial strength has confirmed JMMA and Markit's Manufacturing PMI for January, increasing 34.3 56.6 – the highest level since 2006. Overall, the data suggest that growth exceeds 3% q/q in Q4 and Q1 14 ann. 13. Please note, however, that industrial production was slightly weaker than expected.

Japan's inflation continues to edge more toward the 2 percent inflation target, the Bank of Japan CPI pl. fresh food (the BoJ) increased by 1.3% y/y in December, up 1.1% y/y in the next few months, we expect growth to decelerate inflation clearly. (adjusted consumption tax hike).

EUR/USD: 1.3587 the GOAL, STOP SELLING the ORIGINAL 1.3490 1.3642
USD/JPY: short 265.09 100.96; STOP at 103.81
GBP/USD: POSSIBLY SELL
USD/CHF: buy. 9011 FOR. 9,358; 8958 stop.
AUD/USD: POSSIBLY BUY
USD/CAD: LONG 1.1088 REVISED 1.1349 OBJ REVISED STOP 1.1100
EUR/JPY: Verify SELL 139.93 137.77, STOP 144.05
The EUR/GBP: LONG HAS. 8255 FOR. 8394; 8205 stop.
LOOK TO SELL THE EUR/CHF:
EUR/CAD: buy 1.5070 1.5450 STOP at 1.4985
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY BUY

                  short. 8275 modified. 8084; CHECK OUT the stop 8310

Economy:When positive forming in the United States and the ongoing woes of the emerging markets, money flowed back into dollars and out of bonds to see the USD Index posting the biggest one-day gain this year. U.s. Treasury yields and equities and the safe havens ' down it was a day the risk is for investors.
The u.s. economy will accelerate to 3.2%, 2013 Q3, by supporting the FBI decided to taper. Growth at this rate, it suggests the economy is steady, unemployment and population growth outpace.
But investors are still concerned about the depreciation of their currencies in emerging markets to continue in spite of the central banks of Turkey and South Africa, raising interest rates this week. It is likely they were expecting more of a tightening of monetary policy, while hedge funds continue to drive down the currency. Companies are buying DOLLAR bonds to protect their currency risk.
China's factory production contracts for the first time in 6 months the second largest economy in the world to take care of.
INDEXES:Taking into account the positive U.s. data equities indexes throughout the United States, Europe and Asia are considered to be above a key support levels but it was only on the Nasdaq over the previous days high.
USD:Posting the biggest one-day rise this year
AUD: The PPI came in higher-than-expected 0.2% compared to 0.7% less than expected. Regardless of the AUDUSD gathered up the 0.8820 resistance. Break this level confirms the double bottom, but we are still within the technically bearish, bearish channel and 200eMA.
CAD: The Canadian dollar weakening to lose the momentum of the bearish
COMMODITIES: Gold sell less than 1250, money flowed into safe assets and broke the bullish channel, which was built because of the low 1179. 1250 is cut.
The silver will remain bearish channel than silver and gold correlation seems to have returned.
WTI continues to look strong, despite stalling below 98.50 resistance. The daily chart is likely to attract a bullish swing traders goal of 100.

Gold: Breaks the ascending channel and below support
Even though we were bullish channel and above the 1250 to buy the dip looked like a technically good and my bias was the continuation of a back high in 1278. Well ... It clearly occurred after the positive Us data, valuable yellow metal becoming dumping and money flows in USD.
As a result, gold is a bearish session from December and break out of the channel and to less than 1250. Rough close this key level of bias is now a short-side 1232 is likely to be the target.
Although the weekly and monthly pivots are also consistent with the key levels, I have deleted them on the last trading day of the month chart (such as new levels of scale on Monday).
1250 is now a key level to watch and probably against, so rally up here can also attract a bearish swing traders.
If we break above 1250, 1268-70 is probably the stalling point is at the heart of the S/R level and previous swing high.
If we close today on the grounds of the weekly chart suggests a turning point ...
SILVER: Break out of the bearish consolidation targeting 6.30 pm low
So it was silver, which turned out to be to tell the "truth" between silver and gold as it rejected over the resistance and remain bearish channel 20.50. For now, at least, the correlation between two metal appears back on track, which is what also encourages my rough goals for both markets.

As we stopped in support of my bias is the modest retracement towards 19.50-60 before again downtrend.

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

USD/JPY

Forex Knowledge 30 JAN 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 30 JAN 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
The corrective bounce is over and all the global markets resumed the downtrend after the US Fed stuck to its script of tapering and changed nothing in their plans.
Dow (15738.79, -1.19%) is hitting the major support zone of 15500-700 below which we may see the fall extend to 14700-800. This is the acid test for the long term bulls.
Nikkei (14887.75, -3.23%) has signaled the end of its bull market from late 2011. It has failed to break above 15600-700 and testing the final support of 14700-900, below which it may target 13700 and 13200.
Shanghai (2035.01, -0.17%) is closed for today. It is among the better performers in this turmoil as it has already been in a major bear market for while now and has been beaten a lot already much before the other markets came under bear grip. That said, it needs to rise past 2080-90 and then 2150 to break the longer term downtrend it is trapped in.
Dax (9336.73, -0.75%) is testing the channel containing the entire rally for the last 6 months at the major support zone of 9300-9350 below which the fall is expected to extend to 9000 or even 8700.
Nifty (6120.25, -0.10%) was rejected exactly from our resistance of 6165-80. The lack of strength was mentioned here and the global cues point to our downside targets getting achieved in a day or two. We repeat, from the broader perspective, the targets of 5970-5920 remain open as long as Nifty stays below 6200-50.
COMMODITIES
Commodities are mixed.
Gold (1263.298) has bounced from trend support and if these levels sustain we may see a rise to 1272-1274. However, we cannot negate a fall to 1250 just now. Overall the near term uptrend persists.
Silver (19.551) remained stable with no major movement. We may see consolidation for some more time within the 19-20 levels before rising to 20.5.
Copper (3.2340) has fallen further targeting support near 3.20 from where it may bounce back to 3.25-3.30 levels. It has been moving downwards since the last week.
Brent (107.87) also rose a bit but is expected to consolidate in the 106-108.5 regions for a few sessions. A break above 108.5 may further take the prices higher towards 110-112.5. Overall the long term trend remains up.
Nymex WTI (97.62) rose as the demand for distillate fuel goes up in the US. We may see a rise to 98.76-99 in the near ter. Bulls continue to dominate the prices which would be ensured after a rise past 97.80.
CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (80.6080) remains unchanged in its contracting mode even after the Fed policy announcement and the global EM currency meltdown has no effect on it. We may see more abrupt moves while remaining inside the contracting range. Any major move would be expected only beyond the broader range of 79.70-81.50.
The Euro (1.3651) is reflecting the same indifference to global events as the Dollar index after testing the major trend decider level of 1.3750. It must break above 1.3750 to extend the rally or else the bears may come down heavily once again. Major move is expected only beyond the broader range of 1.3500-1.3750.
Dollar-Yen (102.18) is testing the bull market defining support level of 101.50-101.90 but for the strength to return, it must break above 103.70-90 and 105.
The Euro-Yen Cross (139.48) was rejected sharply from our resistance of 141.50 to reach our target of 139 as the weak structure mentioned before showed its true color. The fall may extend to 138.45 and 137 below that while remaining below 141.50.
The Pound (1.6557) remains in its own world as a comparative outperformer and may trade in the range of 1.6350-1.67 for some time more.
The Aussie (0.8732) has bounced from the major support of 0.87 but must go above 0.89 to make it meaningful. Otherwise, it could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (62.41) may open much higher near 62.75-80 on the back of EM currency meltdown. The bounce from 62.10 has a target of 62.70-85, where the price action has to be watched for further guidance. Supports would come at 62.70 and 62.50 in case of a gap up.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.68%) saw a sharp fall after the Fed continued its taper and cut its monthly bond purchases to $65 Billion from $75Billion. We can now expect the inertest rates to move up. The US 10Yr has fallen below the support at 2.70% and may see a drop to 2.50% before eventually rising to 2.80% and higher.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) rose further. We may now see it going up to 1.75%-1.80%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-0.94%) saw a rise and is testing resistance at current levels. We may see it coming down again towards -1.15% if the resistance holds.
The Japan 10Yr (0.61%) has dropped and is trading in our expected range of 0.60%-0.70%. It can drop further to target support near 0.50%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.07%) has also dropped below the support at current levels. We may see a bounce towards 2.25% if it is able to recover from here or else a drop to 1.90%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.77%) rose marginally yesterday. With the Fed tapering further we can expect the Indian interest rates also to go up. We may see 8.80% or even higher in the next few days.
DATA TODAY19:00 GMT or 0:30 IST US FOMC Meeting
...Expected <0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %
1:45 GMT or 7:15 IST CN Final Manfng PMI
...Expected 49.60 ...Previous 49.60
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Expected 101 ...Previous 100

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 3.20 % ...Previous 4.10 %
EUR/JPY

EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3670 – 1.3585
Trend: Down
Sell at 1.3657 SL 1.3689 TP 1.3595

GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6575 – 1.6475
Trend: Strong Down
Sell at 1.6563 SL 1.6595 TP 1.6488

USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8945 – 0.9030
Trend: Up
Buy at 0.8958 SL 0.8926 TP 0.9018

USD/JPY
Trading range: 102.65 – 101.70
Trend: Strong Down
Sell at 102.51 SL 102.83 TP 101.7

The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3590, 1.3566, 1.3528 – 1.3724, 1.3748, 1.3786
USD/JPY 101.80, 101.52, 101.08 – 103.22, 103.50, 103.94
GBP/USD 1.6483, 1.6454, 1.6408 – 1.6643, 1.6672, 1.6718
USD/CHF 0.8889, 0.8866, 0.8829 – 0.9027, 0.9050, 0.9087

Forex Knowledge 29 JAN 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 29 JAN 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
All the global markets are in a corrective bounce after the vicious fall of 2-3 days.
Dow (15928.56, +0.57%) spent another day consolidating near the major support zone of 15500-700 below which we may see the fall extend to 14700-800. Any rally may face resistance at 16200-300.
Nikkei (15240.28, +1.74%) is bouncing from the lower boundary of a big channel but must break above 15600-700 for the strength to return. Below 14700-900, it may target 13700 and 13200.
Shanghai (2048.27, +0.48%) is among the better performers in this turmoil as it has already been in a major bear market for while now and has been beaten a lot already much before the other markets came under bear grip. That said, it needs to rise past 2080-90 and then 2150 to break the longer term downtrend it is trapped in.
Dax (9406.91, +0.62%) is testing the channel containing the entire rally for the last 6 months at the major support zone of 9300-9350 below which the fall is expected to extend to 9000 or even 8700.
Nifty (6126.25, -0.16%) has multiple resistances overhead at 6165-80 and no sign of strength is visible till now. From the broader perspective, the targets of 5970-5920 remain open as long as Nifty stays below 6200-50.
COMMODITIES
Commodities are overall down. Precious metals await the FED decision on monetary policy while the oil market sees an increase in stockpile inventory.
Gold (1253.114) fell from the 100-day MA resistance and on speculation that the US FED would further cut stimulus. It may see 1235 in the next few sessions if it does not sustain above 1250. However, a break above 1272-1274 (if at all seen) would take it higher to 1280-1300.
Silver (19.572) continues to fall as the 13-day MA and trend resistance holds well. Movement within 19-20 levels could be seen for 2-3 sessions after which we may see a rise to 20.5.
Copper (3.2600) has fallen. Either it may rise from 3.25 or take a bounce from lower support at 3.20 targeting 3.30-3.35 in the coming weeks.
Brent (107.39) came off from just below the resistance near 108. Movements in the 106-108.5 regions may continue for some more sessions before a rise past 108.5, taking prices towards 110-112.5.
Overall the long term uptrend continues.
Nymex WTI (97.19) is testing resistance at current levels which if breaks could take it to 98.76-99. Else prices may be pushed to 95. Bulls seem to be dominating for now but cannot be ensured until a rise to 97.80 is seen.
CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (80.4740) remains in a contracting mode as it keeps making higher lows and lower highs. It may attempt going higher as long as it stays above 80 and 79.70. Any major move would be expected only beyond the broader range of 79.70-81.50;
The Euro (1.3663) is not doing much after testing the major trend decider level of 1.3750. It must break above 1.3750 to extend the rally or else the bears may come down heavily once again. Major move is expected only beyond the broader range of 1.3500-1.3750.
Dollar-Yen (103.13) has bounced from the major support level of 101.50-101.90 but for the strength to return, it must break above 103.70-90 and 105.
The Euro-Yen Cross (140.87) is close to the resistance of 141.50 above which the major supply zone of 142.25-50 is waiting. It may extend the weakness further to the major demand zone of 138.60-139 as long as it stays below 142.50.The bounce doesn’t look very strong structurally.
The Pound (1.6580) is a comparative outperformer and may trade in the range of 1.6350-1.67 for some time more.
The Aussie (0.8806) has bounced from the major support of 0.87 but must go above 0.89 to make it meaningful. Otherwise, it could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (62.52) may open flat to positive near 62.60. Clear 5 waves visible in the fall from 62.18 hint to a bounce towards 62.70 and 63 if it manages to hold above 62.40-45. On the other hand, a break below 62.40 would weaken it considerably for a probable move towards 62 once again.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.79%) saw a further rise yesterday. Bouncing from the immediate support near 2.70%, it may go up to 2.85% or even higher or we may see a drop towards 2.50%. A lot depends on the FOMC Meeting deciding to continue tapering or not, tonight.
The German 10Yr (1.68%) rose from near the support at 1.65%. A further rise to 1.75%-1.80% can be expected if the support holds. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.12%) has dropped further and is near our target of -1.15%.
The Japan 10Yr (0.63%) is up. But we still see it trading in our range of 0.60%-0.70% before dropping further to target support near 0.50%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.13%) has remained unchanged and is testing the support at current level. We may see a bounce towards 2.25% if the support holds.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.75%) dropped after the RBI Policy meeting yesterday. Governor Rajan surprised the market by increasing the Repo rate and the MSF rate by 25bp. The Rupee responded by closing sharply lower (62.52). We can expect the yield to be ranged between 8.65% - 8.80% for the next few days.
DATA TODAYNo major data release today.
DATA YESTERDAY
RBI Repo Rate
...Previous 7.75 % ...Actual 8.00 %
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous 6.75 % ...Actual 7.00 %
RBI CRR
...Previous 4.00 % ...Actual 4.00 %
RBI MSF
...Previous 8.75 % ...Actual 9.00 %
UK GDP
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.78 % ...Actual 0.68 %
US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 2.00 % ...Previous 2.60 % ... Actual -4.30 %
US Case Schiller
...Expected 13.70 % ...Previous 13.62 % ...Actual 13.71 %

US Cons Conf
...Expected 78.10 ...Previous 77.50 ...Actual 80.70
EUR/JPY

EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3640 – 1.3715
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.3650 SL 1.3618 TP 1.3703

GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6555 – 1.6635
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.6566 SL 1.6534 TP 1.6624

USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9020 – 0.8940
Trend: Down
Sell at 0.9007 SL 0.9039 TP 0.8950

USD/JPY
Trading range: 103.50 – 102.65
Trend: Down
Sell at 103.36 SL 103.68 TP 102.74

The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3588, 1.3568, 1.3535 – 1.3712, 1.3732, 1.3765
USD/JPY 102.71, 102.47, 102.09 – 104.01, 104.25, 104.63
GBP/USD 1.6496, 1.6474, 1.6438 – 1.6636, 1.6658, 1.6694
USD/CHF 0.8940, 0.8918, 0.8883 – 0.9010, 0.9032, 0.9067

Forex Knowledge 28 JAN 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 28 JAN 2014 currency Report.

In the global marketplace will take a break after 2-3 days for the Sharp fall.
The Dow (15837.88,-0.26%) remain below major support area to see the Bill to expand the 15500-14700 700-800.
The Nikkei (15013.01, + 0.05%) hit the lower limit of the large channel preset second match 1000 points fall in the last 5 weeks to end the bull market now. Below, it can be applied to a 14,700-900 315 Elden Street and 13,200.
Shanghai (2029.56, 0.18%), is one of the better performers in the turmoil, because it is already a major bear market, while nowadays and has beaten a lot long before other markets under the bear grip. That said, it is over 2150 to break a long-term downtrend is trapped.
Dax (9349.22,-0.46%) Test your channel contains the last 6 months the whole rally substantial support to the region in autumn-9350 9300 which is meant to expand the 9000 or even the 8700.
Nifty (6135.85,-2.09%) relate to the broader 6130-40 on the lower end of major surgery of the day. The RBI's credit policy today is being closely watched following the direction of the structure remains weak, despite the possible but technically bounce. All the demonstrations may face selling pressure and below 6130-40, we look forward to the first and the 5970 5920 6075, or even an old goal.
COMMODITIES
Commodities trading is low.
Gold (1258.040) fell off a 100-day ma, near the 1276.5 during a short-term uptrend since December 23, 13. The physical demand for the metal seems to weaken in Asia and in China, which can keep a check on prices at current levels for now. Above the current resistance line charts can likely take prices lower. Above the higher 1280-1272-1274, otherwise we would fall towards the 14th 1235.
Silver (19.771) were well within 19.5 to 20.5. Important resistance 3-day agenda are still there, we may see prices towards the support of almost 18.5-19 possible lowering.
Copper (3.2650) is to continue to drop, because the smaller China PMI, last Friday the effect still holds strong. If this continues, it can be applied to a 3.25-3.20 for the foreseeable future.
Brent (106.94) and test the 13 day MA at current levels. Immediate support coming near 106, 108.5-110 can be higher than the prices and even, in the longer term, 112-114.
Nymex WTI (95.77) came off sharp resistance close to the 50-day MA is currently at 97.18 and test support near current levels while forming the false bottom of one of the weekly charts. A break below 95 to 93, but although the above 95 saw the commotion to 95.5-97 in the area.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (80.4740) remains largely unchanged. It tries to goes higher, so long as it remains above 80 and 79.70. The great migration is waiting only over a wider range of 79.70-81.50;
EUR (1.3673) needs to be strengthened after testing the aim at the qualifying level of 1.3750. It is a break above 1.3750 to extend the rally, or otherwise the bears may come down again.
Dollar-yen (102.53) has managed to keep above a major support level 101.50 end of 101.90, below which the bull market alert.
Euro-yen (140.34) borders may extend weakness continues to be an important requirement for a zone 138.60-139, so long as it remains under 141.50.
Pound (1.6584) is comparative to the outperformer and trading between 1.6350-1, 67 for some time more.
Aussie (0.8765) has bounced 0.87 significant support but we need to go above the 0.89 to make meaningful. Otherwise, it is in danger of melting toward 0.8500.
Dollar-rupee (63.60) to achieve the target of 63 and rallied support for greater resistance, taking the old 119.83. It keeps strong above 63 and 119.83. The upside-down targets have 63.65-80. Participants will closely watch the RBI's credit policy today for further instructions.
INTEREST RATES
US 10 Yr (2.76%) saw a small rise after falling for the last three sessions. It has recovered from immediate support around 1.70%. We may see profit gains here if you support keeping or it can drop to test support near 2.50%. The consensus is that the FOMC meeting to continue its tapering.
German 10 Yr (1.66%) remained unchanged at 1.65% of to test and support. We may see a bounce to 1.75%-80% if the support holds. The German and US 10 Yr spread (-1.10%) has fallen on our goals-1.10% and calculates the yet-1.15%.
Japan 10 Yr (0.62%) is stable and trading, close to the lower limit of the range is 0.70 0.60-percent. We may see it by targeting support almost 0.50% if the decline continues. The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield spread (2.13%) is dipped further and further test the current level of support. We will see a bounce toward the 2.25 percent, if the support is.

India's 10 Yr India (8.77%) rose further ahead of the RBI policy meeting today. The low inflation figures in December, it is expected that the Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged. But a relatively weak rupee (closing at 63.60 today) can be a concern for RBI it Ignite inflation. In General, we see very little chance of coming down to the heels.

EUR/USD
Euro is still consolidating near level of 1.3700. We think, today price may leave this consolidation channel upwards to reach level of 1.3800 and then form new consolidation channel close to this level. Later, in our opinion, pair may continue growing upwards to reach main target at 1.4100.

GBP/USD
Mainscenario of currency pair movement
The pair continues its movement in an ascending trend, Tenkan and Kijun lines are bound below the price, the pair has broken through the cloud, due to this situation trend continuation is possible. One should buy the pair above the 1,6622 resistance level, till the 1,6648, 1,6667 levels and higher.
Alternativescenario of currency pair movement
In case if the pair breaks through the 1,6572 support level and strengthens below, openings of short positions till the 1,6535,1,6499 levels are possible.
LEVELS
Resistance:1,6622;1,6648; 1,6667.
Support:1,6572;1,6535; 1,6499.

GBP/USD
Pound is still forming the fifth ascending structure towards level of 1.6680. Later, in our opinion, market may form descending correction to reach level of 1.6475 (at least) or even 1.6255.

USD/CHF
Franc is still forming consolidation channel. We think, today price may leave it downwards and continue falling down towards level of 0.8885. Later, in our opinion, pair may return to level of 0.8950 and then continue moving inside descending trend towards target at 0.8300.

USD/JPY Yen is being corrected towards level of 103.30. After reaching this level, pair may continue falling down towards level of 101.70.

Forex Knowledge 27 jan 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 27 jan 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
Equities worldwide have tumbled big on weak Chinese PMI (49.6, down from 50.5) and news of the Argentine Peso devaluation.
The Dow (15879.11,-1.96%) is close to the major support zone of 15500-700 below which we may see the fall extend to 14700-800.
The Nikkei (15009.04,-2.49%) finished the second bout of a 1000 points fall in the last 5 weeks to signal the end of the bull market for now. Below 14700-800, it may target 13700 and 13200.
Shanghai (2038.92, -0.75%) is among the better performers in this turmoil as it has already been in a major bear market for while now and has been beaten a lot already much before the other markets came under bear grip. That said, it needs to rise past 2150 to break the longer term downtrend it is trapped in.
The Dax (9392.02, -2.48%) joined the global rout to test the major support zone of 9300-9350 below which the fall is expected to extend to 9000 or even 8700.
The Nifty (6266.75, -1.24%) may open sharply lower matching steps with the global weakness. The repeated failure to break above 6345-60 is resulting now in a drop to the lower end of the broader range at 6130-40. All the rallies may face selling pressure now and below 6130-40, we may expect to see 5970 and 5920.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1274.796) continues its upward rally targeting 1280-1300 in the near term. A break above 1274.42 would take it higher else we may see movements within the 1250-1274.4 regions.
Silver (19.948) came off from resistance near 20.28 and is testing crucial resistance on the 3-day charts. It may consolidate within the 19.5-20.5 regions for some more time and may target support near 18.5-19 if it breaks below 19.5.
Copper (3.2645) came off sharply from resistance near 3.30 and is trading lower. We may see a fall to 3.25-3.20 while below 3.30.
Brent (107.52) has bounced back sharply from just above the support near 106. Currently testing the 200-day MA support, if this holds we may rise towards 108.5. While above 107, a rise towards 109-110 may be expected.
Nymex WTI (96.67) remains ranged coming off a bit from resistance near 97.20. But while above 96, it continues the near term uptrend and may see a rise towards 98.75-99 and even 101-102 in the coming weeks.
CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (80.43) may attempt going higher as long as it stays above 80 and 79.70. Any major move would be expected only beyond the broader range of 79.70-81.50;
The Euro (1.3687) tested the major trend decider level of 1.3750. It must break above 1.3750 to extend the rally or else the bears may come down heavily once again.
Dollar-Yen (102.40) has reached closer to the major support level of 101.50-101.90, below which the end of the bull market will be signaled.
The Euro-Yen Cross (140.13) may extend the weakness further to 138.60-139 as long as it stays below 141.50.
The Pound (1.6499) is a comparative outperformer and may trade in the range of 1.6350-1.67 for some time more.
The Aussie (0.8704), hit by the weak Chinese PMI, is hanging to the major support of 0.87 precariously and could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (62.66) has a target of 62.97 for the current move which nicely coincides with the resistance of 63-63.10. The uptrend remains intact above 62.45-50 and further momentum may be expected above 62.73.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.73%) fell further and is testing immediate support near 1.70%. We may see the 10Yr drop further to test long term support near 2.50%.
The German 10Yr (1.66%) also dropped and fell below the lower boundary of our range of 1.70%-1.85% and is now testing support at 1.65%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.07%) dropped and we see it ranged between -1.00% and -1.10%.
The Japan 10Yr (0.61%) has also dropped and trading near the lower boundary of our range of 0.60%-0.70%. We may see it targeting support near 0.50% if the fall continues. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.11%) has fallen and is testing support at current level. We may see a bounce towards 2.25% if the support holds.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.74%) rose sharply. The RBI Policy Meeting is tomorrow. It is expected that the Central bank will keep the Key Interest rates unchanged after the low Inflation figures in December. A further movement of the yields can only be predicted after the Meeting tomorrow.
DATA TODAY9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 110.20 ...Previous 109.50
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 112.20 ...Previous 111.60
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 108.00 ...Previous 107.40
15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 457 K...Previous 464 K
FRIDAY'S DATA

CA Inflation Y/Y
... Expected 1.30 % ...Previous 0.90 % ...Actual 1.20%
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3660 – 1.3740
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.3674 SL 1.3642 TP 1.3727

GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6475 – 1.6560
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.6487 SL 1.6455 TP 1.6546

USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8975 – 0.8905
Trend: Down
Sell at 0.8963 SL 0.8995 TP 0.8913

USD/JPY
Trading range: 102.90 – 102.10
Trend: Down
Sell at 102.77 SL 103.09 TP 102.2

EUR/JPY

The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3612, 1.3592, 1.3559 – 1.3736, 1.3756, 1.3789
USD/JPY 102.15, 101.93, 101.58 – 103.39, 103.61, 103.96
GBP/USD 1.6417, 1.6394, 1.6358 – 1.6557, 1.6580, 1.6616
USD/CHF 0.8900, 0.8881, 0.8850 – 0.8962, 0.8981, 0.9012

24 JAN 2014 MAJOR CURRENCY REPORT

EUR/USD: 1.3642 the GOAL, STOP BUY 1.3729 1.3581
The USD/JPY FELL 75.49, possible to SELL: SELL
GBP/USD: buy 1.6595 1.6694 objective; STOP at 1.6550
USD/CHF: 9027.8931 OBJECTIVE, STOP to sell.. 9087
AUD/USD: LOOK TO SELL THE
USD/CAD: buy 1.1088 MODIFIED 1.1349 OBJ, stop 1.1018
EUR/JPY: for a LONG TIME is the ORIGINAL 141.50 85.32; STOP at 140.90
THE EUR/GBP: POSSIBLY BUY
EUR/CHF: POSSIBLY SELL
EUR/CAD: buy 1.5170 1.5450 STOP at 1.5110
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY WANT TO BUY
: long at. 8300.8433 target. 8250 to a halt.

REVIEW

EURUSD: 1.3815-1.3830 on the upside, 1.3405-1.3420 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.8945-0.8960 on the upside, 0.8670-0.8685 on the downside.
USDJPY: 105.45-105.60 on the upside, 102.60-102.75 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6720-1.6735 on the upside, 1.6410-1.6425 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1285-1.1300 on the upside, 1.0840-1.0855 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8360-0.8375 on the upside, 0.8235-0.8250 on the downside.
EURJPY: 142.35-142.50 on the upside, 140.65-140.80 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8280-0.8295 on the upside, 0.8115-0.8130 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9235-0.9250 on the upside, 0.8880-0.8895 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 94.20-94.35 on the upside, 89.10-89.25 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.5830-1.5845 on the upside, 1.4990-1.5005 on the downside

CURRENCIES
The Dollar has taken a beating against the G3. The Dollar Index (80.474) has come down sharply and could be in danger of dipping to 80.00.
The Euro (1.3680) saw a stellar rise yesterday, first breaking above the earlier resistance at 1.3600 on the strong Eurozone PMI data and then benefitting from the sharp dip in the US-10Yr yield to 2.79%. The rally has recouped all of last week's losses. A further rise towards 1.38 could be seen unless selling comes in at current levels and pushes the market below 1.3650.
Dollar-Yen (103.51) dropped sharply yesterday to test 55-day MA at 102.97 yesterday, but has bounced a bit from there today. Our bullishness has received a bit of a setback and maybe we have to consider chances of a sideways range of 103-105 for a while. The Euro-Yen Cross (141.60) has been steady yesterday as both the Euro and the Yen have gained equally against the Dollar. Expect a sideways range of 141-143 for a few days.
The Pound (1.6632) is maintaining its upmove and a rise past 1.6650 can see it target 1.69-70. The Aussie (0.8764) fell sharply yesterday, hit by the weak Chinese PMI, and could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (61.9325) might move up today on weakness in Emerging Market currencies in the wake of the devaluation of the Argentinian Peso yesterday. wake of the devaluation of the Argentinian Peso yesterday.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.78%) saw sharp drop and fell below the support near 2.82%-2.83%, as a rise in demand for Haven Assets increased the money inflow. The Existing Home Sales data coming out lower than expected and the devaluation in the Argentinean Peso, being a few reasons for the increased demand. It is difficult to say as to where the Treasury yields will move from here. We may see the 10Yr now testing long term support near 2.50%.
The German 10Yr (1.71%) also dropped after a strong PMI release in Germany which in turn saw a strong rise in Euro. It is trading near the lower end of our range of 1.70%-1.85% and we may see it targeting the support near 1.70%-1.65% if the fall continues. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.02%) rose after the drop in the yields.
The Japan 10Yr (0.63%) has also dropped after a steady rise in the 2 days. We may see a ranged movement between 0.60% - 0.70%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.14%) has risen.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.66%) saw a further rise yesterday. We can expect a ranged movement between 8.60% - 8.75% till the RBI policy meeting early next week.
DATA TODAY
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
... Expected 1.30 % ...Previous 0.90 %


EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3665 – 1.3750
Trend: Up
Buy at 1.3678 SL 1.3646 TP 1.3739

EUR/JPY

GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6605 – 1.6705
Trend: Strong Up
Buy at 1.6619 SL 1.6587 TP 1.6693

USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8995 – 0.8910
Trend: Down
Sell at 0.8984 SL 0.9016 TP 0.8919

USD/JPY
Trading range: 103.65 – 102.80
Trend: Strong Down
Sell at 103.55 SL 103.87 TP 102.8

The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3611, 1.3588, 1.3550 – 1.3745, 1.3768, 1.3806
USD/JPY 102.86, 102.60, 102.18 – 104.24, 104.50, 104.92
GBP/USD 1.6539, 1.6511, 1.6465 – 1.6699, 1.6727, 1.6773
USD/CHF 0.8912, 0.8887, 0.8847 – 0.8992, 0.9017, 0.9057

23 JAN 2014 MAJOR CURRENCY REPORTS

THE EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3525-1.3610
Trend: up
Buy 1.3537 SL 1.3505 TP 1.3596

THE USD/JPY
Trading range: 104.55-103.80
Trend: down
Sell 161.73 SL 104.75 TP 103.8

THE GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6545 – 1.6650
Trend: Strong up
Buy 1.6557 SL 1.6525 TP 1.6636

USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9135 – 0.9050
Trend: down
Sell 0.9123 SL 0.9155 TP 0.9060

The current support/resistance levels are:
The EUR/USD 1.3472 1.3449, 1.3413, – 1.3602, 1.3625, 1.3661
The USD/JPY 103.82, 59.35, 103.47 – 105.04, 105.25, 105.59
The GBP/USD 1.6474, 1.6444, 1.6395 – 1.6640, 1.6670, 1.6719
USD/CHF 0.9052, 0.9028, 0.8989-0.9130, 0.9154, 0.9193

22 JAN 2014

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (81.08) is struggling near the major supply zone of 81.50 now as it remains in an uptrend above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.
Euro (1.3565) is in a feeble bounce from 1.35 and it may extend to1.3620-30 at most, but selling pressure may come at the higher levels any time. Below 1.35, the drop may extend to 1.333-1.34. The trend remains firmly down.
Dollar-Yen (104.36) has bounced back from our support zone of 103.65-104 to reassert the longer term uptrend. The rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.58) has bounced from our target support zone of 140.30-50. It may reach 142-142.15 and 143-143.30 above that. The drop may extend below 140 towards 138.50-140.
The Pound (1.6482) is in the 5th week of sideways trade between 1.66 and 1.63. Good Support at 1.63 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.
The Aussie (0.8855) has bounced from our major long term support at 0.87-0.8720 and if it can stay above 0.89 now, the bounce can extend to 0.9050-0.91.
Dollar Rupee (61.90) may open higher today near 62.05-10. It broke above the major supply zone of 61.70-75 and almost reached our initial target of 61.95 in the same day. It may reach our next target of 62.10 today and may extend the rally further towards 62.25-30.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.84%) remained unchanged yesterday after falling from 3.04% since 1st January 2014. It is now testing support in a near term uptrend at current levels and we may see a bounce from here targeting 3.00%.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) also remained unchanged yesterday. The yield has fallen from 1.95% on 3rd January 2014 and we can now see it targeting a trend support near 1.65%-1.70%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.10%) fell from a resistance near -1.00% and can target -1.20% in a long term downtrend.
The Japan 10Yr (0.67%) has seen a rise of 1 basis point since yesterday. The 10Yr yield curve is ranged between 0.75% to 0.50%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.15%) has been consolidating and can target 2.10%. The BOJ Meeting got concluded today and there was no change in the key interest rates.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.55%) has been falling since 27th December 2013 from 8.96%. We may now see it targeting 8.50%-8.45%.
DATA TODAY1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST AU CPI
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 1.20 % ...Actual 0.80%
3:00 GMT or 8:30 IST BOJ Meeting
...Previous <0.10 % ...Actual <0.10 %
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Unemp
...Expected 7.30 % ...Previous 7.40 %

15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %

1.365 has been a pivotal level I have been monitoring these past 2 weeks as I considered this a line between continued gains or continued losses. After we finally broke through this level and the primary bullish trendline, my next targets remain 1.348 and 1.332. But is it really that straight forward?

EUR/USD

EUR/JPY

EURUSD: 1.3610-1.3625 on the upside, 1.3475-1.3490 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.8925-0.8940 on the upside, 0.8700-0.8715 on the downside.
USDJPY: 105.05-105.20 on the upside, 103.55-103.70 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6545-1.6560 on the upside, 1.6340-1.6355 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1020-1.1035 on the upside, 1.0805-1.0820 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8385-0.8400 on the upside, 0.8150-0.8165 on the downside.
EURJPY: 142.20-142.35 on the upside, 140.20-140.35 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8265-0.8280 on the upside, 0.8140-0.8155 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9155-0.9170 on the upside, 0.9040-0.9055 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 92.80-92.95 on the upside, 91.10-91.25 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.5505-1.5520 on the upside, 1.5105-1.5120 on the downside.

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

21 jan 2013 Report

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (81.17) faces the major supply zone of 81.50 now as it remains in an uptrend above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.
Euro (1.3536) has hit a major trendline at 1.3508 and the RSI shows the same. If 5 waves are finished at that low, a bounce may be expected towards 1.36-1.37, but selling pressure may come at the higher levels. Below 1.35, the drop may extend to 1.333-1.34. The trend remains firmly down.
Dollar-Yen (104.57) is bounced back from our support zone of 103.65-104 to reassert the longer term uptrend. The rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.73) has bounced from our target support zone of 140.30-50. It may reach 142-142.15 and 143-143.30 above that. The drop may extend below 140 towards 138.50-140.
The Pound (1.6425) is in the 5th week of sideways trade between 1.66 and 1.63. Good Support at 1.63 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.
The Aussie (0.8834) has bounced from our major long term support at 0.87-0.8720 and if it can stay above 0.89 now, the bounce can extend to 0.9050-0.91.
Dollar Rupee (61.62) may open flat to negative today near 61.55-60. It keeps trading below our resistance zone of 61.70-75 and could fall again towards 61.30-40 unless it breaks above this supply zone. A successful break above 61.70-75 would extend the rally to 61.95-62.10.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.84%) remained stable before the release of the Home Sales data and the FOMC meeting later this month. The 5Yr (1.64%) and the 30Yr (3.76%) also remained stable. No major movement is expected in the yields for now.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) also remained stable. The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.22%) fell further towards the support zone of -28%-0.30%. The UK 10Yr (2.83%) remained unchanged before the release of the BOE Minutes today.
The Japan 10Yr (0.66%) remained unchanged before the BOJ Meeting that started today. Any monetary decision regarding the change in the key interest rates will have a huge impact in the bond market. It needs to be watched.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.52%) dropped the most as the Central Bank starts to increase liquidity in the markets ahead of the RBI Meeting by buying debts through open market operations.

DATA TODAYNo major data release today.

EURUSD: 1.3585-1.3600 on the upside, 1.3455-1.3470 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.8840-0.8855 on the upside, 0.8730-0.8745 on the downside.

USDJPY: 105.15-105.30 on the upside, 103.35-103.50 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.6515-1.6530 on the upside, 1.6300-1.6315 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0980-1.0995 on the upside, 1.0790-1.0805 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.8355-0.8370 on the upside, 0.8135-0.8150 on the downside.

EURJPY: 142.60-142.75 on the upside, 139.90-140.05 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8355-0.8370 on the upside, 0.8155-0.8170 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9140-0.9155 on the upside, 0.9035-0.9050 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 92.90-93.05 on the upside, 90.40-90.55 on the downside.


EURAUD: 1.5445-1.5460 on the upside, 1.5305-1.5320 on the downside.

EUR/USD:

EUR/JPY

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

20 jan 2014 report

The EUR/USD starts the week trading around the 2 month low posted on Friday at 1.3516. Market players count on FOMC to continue tapering over the upcoming month and pricing it in, supporting the greenback against most rivals. Adding to the picture its EUR self weakness, which seems poised to extend its fall. Technically, the hourly chart shows price well below a bearish 20 SMA while indicators aim to correct higher in oversold territory, albeit price holds below former monthly low of 1.3550, now immediate resistance. In the 4 hours chart technical readings stand in negative territory, favoring also a bearish continuation towards next strong support at the 1.3440 area.
Support levels: 1.3520 1.3485 1.3440

Resistance levels: 1.3550 1.3590 1.3620

The EUR/JPY trades around 141.00 as a new week starts, still exposed to the downside as per short term technical readings: the hourly chart shows price well below moving averages, both flat above in the 142.00 area, while indicators correct oversold readings yet hold in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain a strong bearish momentum, supporting a retest of this month low of 140.48.
Support levels: 140.90 140.50 140.10

Resistance levels: 141.40 141.95 142.50

Pound trades barely above 1.6400 against the greenback, losing some of the ground gained on Friday following better than expected UK Retail Sales. The pair however, recovered above the short term ascendant trend line and neckline of the H&S figure, diminishing its value. As for the hourly chart, the GBP/USD shows price above a bullish 20 SMA and indicators heading higher in positive territory. In the 4 hours chart price stands above its 20 SMA now around 1.6390 immediate support, while momentum heads north above its midline: price needs to recover above 1.6460 area to be able to extend gains towards 1.6500 area still key resistance level to overcome to confirm further gains.
Support levels: 1.6410 1.6370 1.6330

Resistance levels: 1.6460 1.6500 1.6535

USDCHF - With USDCHF reversing almost all of its previous week losses to close higher at the end of the week, the risk is for the pair to recapture the 0.9126 level in the new week. Above here will trigger the resumption of its short term recovery offensive towards the 0.9200 level, its psycho level. A violation of here will aim at the 0.9249 level, its Nov 07’2013 high and then the 0.9300 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, support lies at the 0.9031 level, its Jan 16’2014 low where a break will target its psycho level at the 0.8986 level, its Jan 13’2014 low. Below here if seen will open the door for more downside towards the 0.8950 level and then the 0.8900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside in the short term.

TODAY CURRENCY TRADING TARGET

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (80.96) has bounced from the support zone of 80.30-50 towards the immediate resistance at 81.05-20. Strength will return above 81.20. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.
Euro (1.3614) is trading near the lower boundary of a Bear Flag pattern. It had got rejected from the major supply zone of 1.3660-90 and found support at our support area of 1.3550-70 to remain rangebound. Only a rally above 1.3725-65 may mitigate the immediate weakness.
Dollar-Yen (104.24) corrected a bit from 105. Longer term uptrend back in force? In that case, the strength should be back from 103.65-104 and then the rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.93) is correcting exactly from the major supply zone at 143-143.30 in line with our expectation. The bears were expected to return at this level. Bulls must break above this zone to continue the rally. Otherwise, another drop to 141.40 or 140.50 would remain on the cards.
The Pound (1.6331) is in the 3rd week of sideways trade between 1.66 and 1.63. Good Support at 1.63 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.
The Aussie (0.8806) made a new 3 year low at 0.8777 in a single day of the possibility being discussed in this space. It had failed to stay above 0.90 and broke down below 0.8950-60 to signal the termination of the bounce. Now any rally towards 0.8950-90 is expected to be sold into. Now the last hope for the bulls would be the major long term support area of 0.87-0.8720.
Dollar Rupee (61.54) may open flat today. It neither broke above the resistance of 61.70-75 nor below the support at 61.40-42 yesterday. The bulls managed to protect 61.40 and keep their hopes still alive. But the trend remains firmly down and the weakness persists as long as it stays below 61.70-75 and the possibility of a retest of the major support zone of 60.80-61.20 remains open. Above 61.70-75, resistance comes at 62.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.84%) fell before the release of the Housing Starts and Industrial Production data. It is expected that the Housing Starts will decline the Industrial production will be slow. The 5Yr (1.64%) and the 30Yr (3.77%) also fell in line with the 10Yr yields.
The German 10Yr (1.78%) fell after the slow growth of inflation in the Euro Area. The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.18%) is stable and in the support zone of -28%-0.30%. The UK 10Yr (2.81%) also fell saw a rise and is ranged between 2.75%-3.00%.
The Japan 10Yr (0.66%) remained unchanged. The US-Japan 10Yr Differential (2.17%) fell with the fall in US Yields.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.61%) also fell further with the low Inflation data. With the inflation coming in lower it is speculated that the RBI will refrain from increasing the borrowing costs later this month.
DATA TODAY
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Housing Starts (Mln)
...Expected 990 K ...Previous 1091 K
14:15 GMT or 19:45 IST US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 1.10 %
14:15 GMT or 19:45 IST US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 79.20 % ...Previous 79.0 %
DATA YESTERDAY
Australia Labour Force
...Expected 10.30 K ...Previous 15.4 K ...Actual -22.60 K
EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.85 % ...Actual 0.86 %
US Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous 0.16 % ...Actual 0.11%
US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected 42.30 $ Bln ...Previous 28.70 $ Bln ...Actual -29.30 $ Bln

US Philifed Index
...Expected 8.80 ...Previous 7.00 ...Actual 9.40

TODAY CURRENCY TRADING TARGET 

EUR/USD: LONG AT 1.3615 FOR 1.3762; STOP AT 1.3545
USD/JPY: SHORT AT 104.45 FOR 102.85; STOP AT 105.20
GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.6420 FOR REVISED 1.6250 OBJECTIVE; STOP AT 1.6432
USD/CHF: LONG AT .8995 FOR .9165 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP .9018
AUD/USD: LOOK TO SELL BOUNCE
USD/CAD: LONG AT 1.0880 FOR REVISED 1.1126 STOP AT 1.0836
EUR/JPY: SHORT AT 142.86 FOR 140.78 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP 142.50
EUR/GBP: LONG AT .8315 FOR .8432; STOP AT .8280
EUR/CHF: LONG AT 1.2335 FOR A 1.2435 OBJECTIVE; STOP AT 1.2310
EUR/CAD: LONG AT 1.4910 FOR 1.5175 OBJ, STOP AT 1.4810
GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY SELL

NZD/USD: LONG AT .8285 FOR A .8433 OBJECTIVE; STOP AT .8225
eur/jpy

gbp/usd

eur/usd

usd/chf