Forex Knowledge 4 MARCH 2014 currency Report.
Global stock markets are suffering from a bout of profit-taking today as a knee-jerk reaction to the situation in Ukraine, but appears to be recovering from today.
Most Asian markets are trading in positive territory today, although in a big way. The Nikkei (14698.52, + 0.32%) was trading more than 14600 and stay more than 14600 500, may try to continue with more towards 15,000-200 now. Shanghai (2062.81, 0.60%) has been steadily gaining a bit after a sharp rally in 2015-20 of 2080. After the consolidation, it can reach higher toward the 2100-2110.
Nifty (6221.45,-0.88%) came down to test support for the 6210-15 in sync in other markets. We are in the early trade, which can keep the 6210 track bounce again, 6270 6300 but the break below the 6210, drag it down to 6160-70.
The Dow (16168.03,-0.94%) corrected the most in more than a month after facing resistance at 16400. The selling pressure is not enough to call it a major reversal in yet, but we will follow the price action has the support of 16,000, and find out the real power of 15600-700.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1350.60) extends from its rally targeting the demand for metal from the 15th to the Ukraine in the turmoil raises. You may see a small break in the almost 1361.86-1362 levels but, in General, remain bullish.
Silver (21.479) is stuck with nearly 21.5 levels after irtoavalla 21.72 yesterday. May be slightly varied from nearly 21.5 levels for some time, before resuming its rally toward the resistance near the 22-22.20.
Copper (3.1695) is still reduced sharply to hit a weak Yuan and not so good for the Chinese data, undoing all the bullish expectations. If it does not rise back to 3.20, and before a few times is now in danger of drop the 3.15-3 level.
Brent (121.53) ranged from very making your intraday high 109.04, but came out then close the level of resistance to 111.3 is testing near the 133.52-30 which can target 112.5. In the long term, we can expect the level of 114.
Nymex WTI (104.89) has risen further above 104.4 targeting 106 in the near future. Overall, the trend is still up.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (51.19) has recovered from the old support area 69.08-70, as expected, and it tries to rise again 79.54-50. Keep an eye on the big break of less than a downmove 79.70 79.70 as can pull down 80.51 77.57.
EUR (1.3727) does not have to break above for us to resist the 1.3850 weaken and this failure to keep the rangebound between 1.3850-1.3650. Major support comes from 1.3550-75.
Dollar-yen (101.61) is stuck in a 101-103 of the larger bulls has managed to keep 93.90 mentioned support. A permanent change to grow toward 70 can produce over 101.60 85.22-103.
Euro-yen (139.48) was 141 goals before retiring to strengthen between 138.80 141.30 again which may continue for some time.
Pound (1.6648) is the repair of a great uptrend now, which can extend 1.6540 1.65 1.66 support only if there is a violation of. It can reach the 1.69-1.7050 while the current correction is complete. 1.6470-80 until the Bills can buy into.
Aussie (0.8941) is a broad area of 0.91 0.89, and only this can give the breakout trends move in a clear direction. It can bounce towards 0.90 again by pressing and holding the up 0.89.
Dollar-rupee (62.04) is being maintained to support the region in 47-70 to keep the possibility of a rally 62,40 alive. It must first confirm the strength and 62.17-22 will continue to grow towards 62.96-50.
INTEREST RATES
The German and US 10 Yr spread is really soaked-1.06% instead of-0.90% of the German 10 Yr (1.55%) has fallen as US 10 Yr. This refers to the safe-haven money shifting from Bunds than bonds.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.03%) has fallen further. We'll have to see whether we could break below 2.0% or not. A break of less than 2.0% could target the 1.95-90%, if it is happening and I could keep the dollar-yen (101.60), pressured.
All eyes on the ECB: the route data, and when. Our impression is that, because of the financial stability Board Mario Draghi has already done a lot of "what it takes" to save the euro from oblivion, he may not want to trigger a rise in the last to 3,900 1.3850 especially if Yellen is anticipating interest rate cuts.
Support: 1.3775, 1.3740, 1.3715, 1.3680, 1.3665
Resistance: 1.3810, 1.3850, 1.3895, 1.3945, 1.3970
Recommendation Based on the above, buy the pair above 1.3775 targeting 1.3810, 1.3895 then 1.3970 and stop-loss below 1.3680
Breaking 1.6670 could weaken the upside move, but breaking 1.6600 for any
reason and achieving a daily closing below it might take the pair into a
noticeable bearish correctional wave this week and in the upcoming period.
Support: 1.6700, 1.6670, 1.6625, 1.6600, 1.6545
Resistance: 1.6740, 1.6785, 1.6800, 1.6860, 1.6920
Recommendation Based on the above, buy the pair above 1.6720 targeting 1.6785, 1.6860 and 1.6920, stop-loss below 1.6625
USDCHF extended the bearish move retesting 0.8800 main support level and
latest major swing low, the ability to hold below 0.8800 would probably clear
the way for further losses towards 0.8700 main next target. Accordingly, we
prefer to see further stability below 0.8800 to confirm a move lower for the
week. Intraday resistance level start at 0.8820 for today.
Support: 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8720, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8800, 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925
USDJPY opens the week sharply lower, with a bearish gap below 101.70 support
level, holding below 101.70, favors the bearish resumption scenario of the
bearish correction that started from 105.43 major high, and the downside may
extend towards the recent major swing low at 100.70 level, and the 200-days SMA
alongside the ascending support for ths overall bullish wave at 100.15 areas.
The bearish bias is expected to remain dominant as long as below 100.70.
Support: 101.00, 100.70, 100.45, 100.15, 100.00
Resistance: 101.40, 101.65, 102.00, 102.30, 102.60
Recommendation Short below 101.45. targets at 101.00,100.70 and 100.20. Stop loss above 102.00
Global stock markets are suffering from a bout of profit-taking today as a knee-jerk reaction to the situation in Ukraine, but appears to be recovering from today.
Most Asian markets are trading in positive territory today, although in a big way. The Nikkei (14698.52, + 0.32%) was trading more than 14600 and stay more than 14600 500, may try to continue with more towards 15,000-200 now. Shanghai (2062.81, 0.60%) has been steadily gaining a bit after a sharp rally in 2015-20 of 2080. After the consolidation, it can reach higher toward the 2100-2110.
Nifty (6221.45,-0.88%) came down to test support for the 6210-15 in sync in other markets. We are in the early trade, which can keep the 6210 track bounce again, 6270 6300 but the break below the 6210, drag it down to 6160-70.
The Dow (16168.03,-0.94%) corrected the most in more than a month after facing resistance at 16400. The selling pressure is not enough to call it a major reversal in yet, but we will follow the price action has the support of 16,000, and find out the real power of 15600-700.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1350.60) extends from its rally targeting the demand for metal from the 15th to the Ukraine in the turmoil raises. You may see a small break in the almost 1361.86-1362 levels but, in General, remain bullish.
Silver (21.479) is stuck with nearly 21.5 levels after irtoavalla 21.72 yesterday. May be slightly varied from nearly 21.5 levels for some time, before resuming its rally toward the resistance near the 22-22.20.
Copper (3.1695) is still reduced sharply to hit a weak Yuan and not so good for the Chinese data, undoing all the bullish expectations. If it does not rise back to 3.20, and before a few times is now in danger of drop the 3.15-3 level.
Brent (121.53) ranged from very making your intraday high 109.04, but came out then close the level of resistance to 111.3 is testing near the 133.52-30 which can target 112.5. In the long term, we can expect the level of 114.
Nymex WTI (104.89) has risen further above 104.4 targeting 106 in the near future. Overall, the trend is still up.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (51.19) has recovered from the old support area 69.08-70, as expected, and it tries to rise again 79.54-50. Keep an eye on the big break of less than a downmove 79.70 79.70 as can pull down 80.51 77.57.
EUR (1.3727) does not have to break above for us to resist the 1.3850 weaken and this failure to keep the rangebound between 1.3850-1.3650. Major support comes from 1.3550-75.
Dollar-yen (101.61) is stuck in a 101-103 of the larger bulls has managed to keep 93.90 mentioned support. A permanent change to grow toward 70 can produce over 101.60 85.22-103.
Euro-yen (139.48) was 141 goals before retiring to strengthen between 138.80 141.30 again which may continue for some time.
Pound (1.6648) is the repair of a great uptrend now, which can extend 1.6540 1.65 1.66 support only if there is a violation of. It can reach the 1.69-1.7050 while the current correction is complete. 1.6470-80 until the Bills can buy into.
Aussie (0.8941) is a broad area of 0.91 0.89, and only this can give the breakout trends move in a clear direction. It can bounce towards 0.90 again by pressing and holding the up 0.89.
Dollar-rupee (62.04) is being maintained to support the region in 47-70 to keep the possibility of a rally 62,40 alive. It must first confirm the strength and 62.17-22 will continue to grow towards 62.96-50.
INTEREST RATES
The German and US 10 Yr spread is really soaked-1.06% instead of-0.90% of the German 10 Yr (1.55%) has fallen as US 10 Yr. This refers to the safe-haven money shifting from Bunds than bonds.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.03%) has fallen further. We'll have to see whether we could break below 2.0% or not. A break of less than 2.0% could target the 1.95-90%, if it is happening and I could keep the dollar-yen (101.60), pressured.
All eyes on the ECB: the route data, and when. Our impression is that, because of the financial stability Board Mario Draghi has already done a lot of "what it takes" to save the euro from oblivion, he may not want to trigger a rise in the last to 3,900 1.3850 especially if Yellen is anticipating interest rate cuts.
Resistance: 1.3810, 1.3850, 1.3895, 1.3945, 1.3970
Recommendation Based on the above, buy the pair above 1.3775 targeting 1.3810, 1.3895 then 1.3970 and stop-loss below 1.3680
Support: 1.6700, 1.6670, 1.6625, 1.6600, 1.6545
Resistance: 1.6740, 1.6785, 1.6800, 1.6860, 1.6920
Recommendation Based on the above, buy the pair above 1.6720 targeting 1.6785, 1.6860 and 1.6920, stop-loss below 1.6625
Support: 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8720, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8800, 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925
Support: 101.00, 100.70, 100.45, 100.15, 100.00
Resistance: 101.40, 101.65, 102.00, 102.30, 102.60
Recommendation Short below 101.45. targets at 101.00,100.70 and 100.20. Stop loss above 102.00
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