Forex Knowledge 25 MARCH 2014 currency Report.
The global opinion is a bit dumb this morning when a U.s. manufacturing report came off a tad expectations but which could be carried out in a normal correction to the sharp rally in Asian markets enjoyed by today.
The Dow (16276.69,-0.16%) has stuck with the band more than 16000 16500 points for 5 weeks now. Sideways in the medium term, the transfer may be made to rise 17,000 to stabilise before rising later in the outbreak.
Shanghai (2064.16, 0.10%) does not fall today on China's error and all the hoopla about it by typing a new bear market. This actually invites suspicion, if already for 6 years in a long bear market is coming to an end. Now we see a sustained rally, or a reversal of the lower levels of -85-2080.
Dax (9188.77,-1.65%) were rejected and the inability to break sharply from levels above 9400 9400-9460 can pull down 9050-9000 level once again. The Nikkei (14425.14,-0.35) has been steadily gaining 14200 14700 area but the downtrend is in force till the 14,700-800. We are looking for a break in the 14200 to confirm the bearish momentum.
Nifty (6583.50, + 1.39%) rallied sharply to the look and to expand it further to 6650 6700. The correction should be limited to 6540-25 will continue to rise.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1312.23) has fallen sharply to achieve the objective of our drawbacks of almost 1300. In the autumn of 1300 can't wait to where it can rise back to targeting the 1368-1380; a break below the 1300 (if seen) could push prices of 1295.
Silver (19.98) has recovered from a right from use near 19.8, and if this is true, according to expect we may see a rise towards the 20.5-21 in the near future. However, it still can be seen to fall 19.5 below 12.3. The Gold-Silver ratio (70.89) is dipped in a bit of a retracement of the decline, and if we see a slight rise of 63.7 else I could toward the 66 to 66.5 fell.
Copper (2.9550) remains inside the 3-2.90% large business now. It may fix some time before you were in the shops.
Brent (106.51) are hard to get but the extremely variable between the territories of the 106 and 108. Could it fall below the 106 104. In the long term, is expected to remain bullish.
Nymex WTI (99.28) slightly rising but overall the bears do not seem to have gotten enough strength to take control of prices. Below, the movements may be restricted to 100.5 100.5-97 level.
Brent WTI (7.21) is stable for now. It can test 6-6.8 drawback where it can Bounce back towards the 8.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (69.35) remains, of course, made their way to 80.50-75 expected repair going on right now. To keep up with the over-65, 79.70 strength remains unchanged.
EUR (1.3836) has bounced sharply but still break above 1.3885-95 blank downtrend. Rough dynamics can enhance a break below 1.3750.
Dollar-yen (102.22) held above the 101 to keep a wider range of 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (141.44) cross is stuck in the narrow 140.40-142 in the last few days and have to get rid of the trends to move. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139 49.98 but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131. The first sign of weakness is a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.65) is close to our buy zone, and in the medium-term trend of the qualifying level of 1.6470-50. Now, if it is able to sustain the level of stop loss at 1.64 and violating the above, can be expected to continue the uptrend 1.6585.
Aussie (0.9147) is one of the characters of the original strength but the only break of the first set before rallying to 0.93 0.9210 0.9350. Do not break the 0.92 yet to pull out of the Aussie.
Dollar-rupee (60.7750) has been tested by our target now, and, in particular, the trace of the 60.80-70 strength does not appear yet. The price reaction of the long-term support in the region decide to follow through or 51.61-50 more rangebound movement.
INTEREST RATES
US 10-5 Yr yield differential (1.01%) has remained stable in the US for 5 v (1.73%) was unchanged and 10 v (2.73%) declined slightly and fell below 2.75%. As well as 5 Yr and 10 yr yields test key resistance near the 1.75% and 2.75% respectively. Just above the break we will see US produce the resistance curve getting steeper.
German 10 Yr (1.58%) to loose the resistance near 1.65 1.66 percent rise in the US contrary to expectations. The German and US 10 Yr spread (-1.10%) and can become up to-1.05% to 1.03% of the test resistor there. 2 Yr spread (-0.21%), is moving in accordance with the euro (1.3836), which returns a bit in an instant.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.12%) have a stable address 2.20 to 2.25%. Japan 10 Yr (0.61%) is a variation of the bound between 0.55 0.65 percent. After a break in this region to give the direction.
India's 10 Yr India (8.78%) is dipped in the still, but it is still a region bound by the close to 8.75% 8.85%, close to the support and resistance. After the break, this region offers us a new direction.
Last week's downside move took the pair out of the medium-term ascending
channel showing on graph, as the short-term ascending channel on graph was
breached. These catalysts strengthens the possibility of further bearishness
this week and trading below 1.3895 keeps the bearish possibility, while
stabilizing below 1.3810 strengthens this possibility.
RSI is totally neutral but below line 50. Stochastic is touching line 20 in an attempt to a positive crossover. Therefore, th epair has to breack 1.3720 this week to confirm extending the downside move.
Support: 1.3780, 1.3720, 1.3665, 1.3620, 1.3580
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3815, 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3945
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3800 targeting 1.3720, 1.3665 then 1.3580 and stop-loss above 1.3895
The pair dropped last week after stabilizing below 1.6600, but we notice with
the beginning of this week that the pair is stable above the bullish key support
level of the ascending channel clsoe to 38.2% correction at 1.6450.
Breaking the referred to 1.6450 level is significant to confirm extending the downside move. But by examening the negative Linear Regression Indicators, we notice that the possibility of the mentioned break is valid. Tradtional MACD is negative and AROON is showing a downside move.
The downside move remains valid by consolidating below 1.6600, but stability below 1.6545 strengthens this possibility.
Support: 1.6450, 1.6390, 1.6335, 1.6280, 1.6220
Resistance: 1.6500, 1.6545, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6500 targeting 1.6450, 1.6390 then 1.6220 and stop-loss above 1.6600 this week
USDCHF continues to hover in a tight range near the main descending
resistance for the overall bearish wave, following the major rebound of the
127.1 extension level at 0.8702. We expect the upside to resume where a break
above the descending resistance should confirm more upside in the near term,
targeting 0.8900 and 0.8930 levels. Holding above 0.8775 should keep the short
term bias to the upside.
Support: 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950
Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8815 targeting 0.8860, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8765
USDJPY maintains the rebound of 101.30 support area, settling near the next
resistance at 102.70 and the 50-days SMA, where a break above the latter will
probably confirm the extension of the rebound, eying 103.75 as the next
potential stop. Holding above 102.00 should keep the intraday bias to the
upside, while the overall bullish trend remains dominant so long as above
100.70.
Support: 102.30, 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00
Resistance: 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 103.75, 104.00
Recommendation Long above 102.20, targets at 102.70,103.00 and 103.40. Stop loss below 101.75
The global opinion is a bit dumb this morning when a U.s. manufacturing report came off a tad expectations but which could be carried out in a normal correction to the sharp rally in Asian markets enjoyed by today.
The Dow (16276.69,-0.16%) has stuck with the band more than 16000 16500 points for 5 weeks now. Sideways in the medium term, the transfer may be made to rise 17,000 to stabilise before rising later in the outbreak.
Shanghai (2064.16, 0.10%) does not fall today on China's error and all the hoopla about it by typing a new bear market. This actually invites suspicion, if already for 6 years in a long bear market is coming to an end. Now we see a sustained rally, or a reversal of the lower levels of -85-2080.
Dax (9188.77,-1.65%) were rejected and the inability to break sharply from levels above 9400 9400-9460 can pull down 9050-9000 level once again. The Nikkei (14425.14,-0.35) has been steadily gaining 14200 14700 area but the downtrend is in force till the 14,700-800. We are looking for a break in the 14200 to confirm the bearish momentum.
Nifty (6583.50, + 1.39%) rallied sharply to the look and to expand it further to 6650 6700. The correction should be limited to 6540-25 will continue to rise.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1312.23) has fallen sharply to achieve the objective of our drawbacks of almost 1300. In the autumn of 1300 can't wait to where it can rise back to targeting the 1368-1380; a break below the 1300 (if seen) could push prices of 1295.
Silver (19.98) has recovered from a right from use near 19.8, and if this is true, according to expect we may see a rise towards the 20.5-21 in the near future. However, it still can be seen to fall 19.5 below 12.3. The Gold-Silver ratio (70.89) is dipped in a bit of a retracement of the decline, and if we see a slight rise of 63.7 else I could toward the 66 to 66.5 fell.
Copper (2.9550) remains inside the 3-2.90% large business now. It may fix some time before you were in the shops.
Brent (106.51) are hard to get but the extremely variable between the territories of the 106 and 108. Could it fall below the 106 104. In the long term, is expected to remain bullish.
Nymex WTI (99.28) slightly rising but overall the bears do not seem to have gotten enough strength to take control of prices. Below, the movements may be restricted to 100.5 100.5-97 level.
Brent WTI (7.21) is stable for now. It can test 6-6.8 drawback where it can Bounce back towards the 8.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (69.35) remains, of course, made their way to 80.50-75 expected repair going on right now. To keep up with the over-65, 79.70 strength remains unchanged.
EUR (1.3836) has bounced sharply but still break above 1.3885-95 blank downtrend. Rough dynamics can enhance a break below 1.3750.
Dollar-yen (102.22) held above the 101 to keep a wider range of 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (141.44) cross is stuck in the narrow 140.40-142 in the last few days and have to get rid of the trends to move. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139 49.98 but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131. The first sign of weakness is a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.65) is close to our buy zone, and in the medium-term trend of the qualifying level of 1.6470-50. Now, if it is able to sustain the level of stop loss at 1.64 and violating the above, can be expected to continue the uptrend 1.6585.
Aussie (0.9147) is one of the characters of the original strength but the only break of the first set before rallying to 0.93 0.9210 0.9350. Do not break the 0.92 yet to pull out of the Aussie.
Dollar-rupee (60.7750) has been tested by our target now, and, in particular, the trace of the 60.80-70 strength does not appear yet. The price reaction of the long-term support in the region decide to follow through or 51.61-50 more rangebound movement.
INTEREST RATES
US 10-5 Yr yield differential (1.01%) has remained stable in the US for 5 v (1.73%) was unchanged and 10 v (2.73%) declined slightly and fell below 2.75%. As well as 5 Yr and 10 yr yields test key resistance near the 1.75% and 2.75% respectively. Just above the break we will see US produce the resistance curve getting steeper.
German 10 Yr (1.58%) to loose the resistance near 1.65 1.66 percent rise in the US contrary to expectations. The German and US 10 Yr spread (-1.10%) and can become up to-1.05% to 1.03% of the test resistor there. 2 Yr spread (-0.21%), is moving in accordance with the euro (1.3836), which returns a bit in an instant.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.12%) have a stable address 2.20 to 2.25%. Japan 10 Yr (0.61%) is a variation of the bound between 0.55 0.65 percent. After a break in this region to give the direction.
India's 10 Yr India (8.78%) is dipped in the still, but it is still a region bound by the close to 8.75% 8.85%, close to the support and resistance. After the break, this region offers us a new direction.
RSI is totally neutral but below line 50. Stochastic is touching line 20 in an attempt to a positive crossover. Therefore, th epair has to breack 1.3720 this week to confirm extending the downside move.
Support: 1.3780, 1.3720, 1.3665, 1.3620, 1.3580
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3815, 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3945
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3800 targeting 1.3720, 1.3665 then 1.3580 and stop-loss above 1.3895
Breaking the referred to 1.6450 level is significant to confirm extending the downside move. But by examening the negative Linear Regression Indicators, we notice that the possibility of the mentioned break is valid. Tradtional MACD is negative and AROON is showing a downside move.
The downside move remains valid by consolidating below 1.6600, but stability below 1.6545 strengthens this possibility.
Support: 1.6450, 1.6390, 1.6335, 1.6280, 1.6220
Resistance: 1.6500, 1.6545, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6500 targeting 1.6450, 1.6390 then 1.6220 and stop-loss above 1.6600 this week
Support: 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950
Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8815 targeting 0.8860, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8765
Support: 102.30, 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00
Resistance: 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 103.75, 104.00
Recommendation Long above 102.20, targets at 102.70,103.00 and 103.40. Stop loss below 101.75
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