Forex Knowledge 21 MARCH 2014 currency Report
The Dow (16331.05, + 2.01%), + 108.88 yesterday's bounce back from a potentially very bullish. For more than a week near the 16400-500 (if seen) can lead to 17,000 in the medium term. BUT the Lysenkon above the 16,500 could be very rough as well. So the market looks like it is very important to make/break the situation. You have to be careful.
The problem is, in Shanghai (2000 + 0.33%) still look weak, targeting to 19,200. Dax (9296.12) has risen this week after bouncing from near 8900 last week, but has to be more than 9400 today with confidence. Japan is a holiday today, but the Nikkei (14224.23) was closed pretty rough today, opportunities and reduce counts toward the 14,000 next week.
Decent opportunities to see a strong bounce in the nifty (6483.10) today issued a trendline support 6480-60 in and bounce on the Dow last night. There could be a potential 6600 also. Let's Look At It.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1332.85) is trading a little more after bouncing from the support almost 1321 and can target 1360-1380, in the short term, the above 1,350. All in all, the uptrend.
Silver (20.57) is out, but has recovered slightly in the crucial support 20.5 20.2. Falls below the 20.2 to 19.5-19 level. The Gold-Silver ratio (65.45) is targeting 66 to 66.5 in the near future where it is. Until then, we will not wait for the Silver.
Copper (2.9330) is marketing a crucial level of 3 2.90 and FED the signal to cut rates has fallen. We'll have to wait to clarify further the movements seem vague. We now have an equal chance to breakouts for each direction.
Brent (106.13) is a break in the close support of 106 where it can Bounce a 108-109 levels even if the Nymex WTI (192.06) is trying to lead, ultimately, to 99.8-100 and closer to 101.5. All in all, the near future looks bullish. Brent WTI spread (7.63) has recovered from a strong support to close 5.5 as expected and may continue to rise 8-8.5 of which can be seen in the decline of 5.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (51.19) has hit the 80,35 quickly and is well on the way to 80.50-75 possible fixes to stop the rally. Bullish momentum will remain unchanged as long as it maintains a 79.90-70.
EUR (1.3825) has broken below 1.3790 the short-term downtrend and 1.3810-30 below, can achieve 1.3650-1, 36, soon.
Dollar-yen (117.66) is maintained and operated by more than one shoot up sharply, 101, 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (141.08) remains in the uptrend, which is the risk of getting blank if a rally Cross will not happen soon. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139-138, but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131. The first sign of weakness is a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6515) is close to our buy zone, and in the medium-term trend of the qualifying level of 1.6470-50. Now if it will be able to hold above the stop loss level of 1.64, one can expect the continuation of the uptrend.
Aussie (0.9061) is stable, with a selection of last 3 weeks no 0.9150 0.89 specifically geared to the clue. A break below the 0.87 0.89 0.8925 can ensure the way back now.
Dollar-rupee (57.53), is stuck in the narrow 60.90 61.50. Until this area gets broken decisively, it would be better to trade in the region sell higher and buying less.
INTEREST RATES
US 5 (v) (1.70%) is not affected 1.70% and resistance testing. 1.70% and above, we see the 5 Yr rise to 1.80% suggested the United States 10-5 Yr yield difference (1.07 percent) to breaking below to aid in the weekly charts. 10 v (2.77%) is stable and is expected to be a ranged from 2.75 2.80%.
German 10 Yr (1.64%) is nearly 1.65% of our goal. Pause before the resistance almost 1.70 1.66 1.65% of the increase in the signal-1.75%. The German and US 10 Yr spread (1.17%) is still trending down and 2 Yr spread (-0.24%) has seen a little bit of bounce in the trend of the support. As to whether the aid is considered or not needs to be watched. The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.17%) is to support the nearly 2.04-2.05% bounce, and we see now 2.20 2.25%.
India's 10 Yr India (8.82%) rose to 8.86 8.85%, but less than the resistance of the close, what is to be monitored. Only the resistance of the above we can see the 9.00%.
The pair dropped sharply yesterday achieving a daily closing below 1.3845 by
forming a long bearish candle. The downside move showed the negativity of Linear
Regression Indicator 34 for the first time since the fifth of last month,
accompanied by the negativity of Stochastic.
The bearish possibility is valid today but it requires breaking 1.3810 to confirm it. On the other hand, breaching 1.3895 weakens this possibility, while breaching 1.3945 fails any bearish possibility over intraday basis.
Support: 1.3810, 1.3770, 1.3740, 1.3715, 1.3680
Resistance: 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3910, 1.3945, 1.4005
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3845 targeting 1.3810, 1.3770 then 1.3715 and stop-loss above 1.3915
The pair declined yesterday and is trading stably below 1.6600 levels which
is negative, while the upside move will return if the pair breached 1.6670.
Linear Regression Indicators became more negative and MACD is moving further to the downside in addition to strengthening bearishness showing on AROON Indicator. Therefore, we expect today further bearishness. Of note, breaking 1.6470 is significant to push the pair further to the downside as will be explained in our next report.
Support: 1.6515, 1.6470, 1.6435, 1.6390, 1.6340
Resistance: 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670, 1.6700
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6550 targeting 1.6515, 1.6470, 1.6390 and stop-loss above 1.6625
USDCHF rallied yesterday, breaking back above 0.8800 and approaching the main
descending resistance for the bearish wave, after the 127.1 extension level
managed to hold back further decline. The bullish engulfing candle yesterday
hints we will probably see more upside over the short term, and a break above
the aforementioned falling trend line should confirm this scenario, targeting
0.8875 and 0.8930 levels.
Support: 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950
Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8770 targeting 0.8830 0.8875, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8700
USDJPY rebounded strongly of 101.30 support area yesterday, hitting the
50-days SMA and 102.70 resistance level, before retreating slightly. A break
above 102.70 is necessary now to confirm more upside over the short term,
probably towards the next potential resistance at 103.75 level. The bullish bias
is favored over intraday basis, and 101.90 should limit an extended downside
correction.
Support: 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00, 100.70
Resistance: 102.30, 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 103.75
Recommendation Long above 102.00, targets at 102.70,103.40 and 103.70. Stop loss below 101.30
The Dow (16331.05, + 2.01%), + 108.88 yesterday's bounce back from a potentially very bullish. For more than a week near the 16400-500 (if seen) can lead to 17,000 in the medium term. BUT the Lysenkon above the 16,500 could be very rough as well. So the market looks like it is very important to make/break the situation. You have to be careful.
The problem is, in Shanghai (2000 + 0.33%) still look weak, targeting to 19,200. Dax (9296.12) has risen this week after bouncing from near 8900 last week, but has to be more than 9400 today with confidence. Japan is a holiday today, but the Nikkei (14224.23) was closed pretty rough today, opportunities and reduce counts toward the 14,000 next week.
Decent opportunities to see a strong bounce in the nifty (6483.10) today issued a trendline support 6480-60 in and bounce on the Dow last night. There could be a potential 6600 also. Let's Look At It.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1332.85) is trading a little more after bouncing from the support almost 1321 and can target 1360-1380, in the short term, the above 1,350. All in all, the uptrend.
Silver (20.57) is out, but has recovered slightly in the crucial support 20.5 20.2. Falls below the 20.2 to 19.5-19 level. The Gold-Silver ratio (65.45) is targeting 66 to 66.5 in the near future where it is. Until then, we will not wait for the Silver.
Copper (2.9330) is marketing a crucial level of 3 2.90 and FED the signal to cut rates has fallen. We'll have to wait to clarify further the movements seem vague. We now have an equal chance to breakouts for each direction.
Brent (106.13) is a break in the close support of 106 where it can Bounce a 108-109 levels even if the Nymex WTI (192.06) is trying to lead, ultimately, to 99.8-100 and closer to 101.5. All in all, the near future looks bullish. Brent WTI spread (7.63) has recovered from a strong support to close 5.5 as expected and may continue to rise 8-8.5 of which can be seen in the decline of 5.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (51.19) has hit the 80,35 quickly and is well on the way to 80.50-75 possible fixes to stop the rally. Bullish momentum will remain unchanged as long as it maintains a 79.90-70.
EUR (1.3825) has broken below 1.3790 the short-term downtrend and 1.3810-30 below, can achieve 1.3650-1, 36, soon.
Dollar-yen (117.66) is maintained and operated by more than one shoot up sharply, 101, 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (141.08) remains in the uptrend, which is the risk of getting blank if a rally Cross will not happen soon. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139-138, but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131. The first sign of weakness is a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6515) is close to our buy zone, and in the medium-term trend of the qualifying level of 1.6470-50. Now if it will be able to hold above the stop loss level of 1.64, one can expect the continuation of the uptrend.
Aussie (0.9061) is stable, with a selection of last 3 weeks no 0.9150 0.89 specifically geared to the clue. A break below the 0.87 0.89 0.8925 can ensure the way back now.
Dollar-rupee (57.53), is stuck in the narrow 60.90 61.50. Until this area gets broken decisively, it would be better to trade in the region sell higher and buying less.
INTEREST RATES
US 5 (v) (1.70%) is not affected 1.70% and resistance testing. 1.70% and above, we see the 5 Yr rise to 1.80% suggested the United States 10-5 Yr yield difference (1.07 percent) to breaking below to aid in the weekly charts. 10 v (2.77%) is stable and is expected to be a ranged from 2.75 2.80%.
German 10 Yr (1.64%) is nearly 1.65% of our goal. Pause before the resistance almost 1.70 1.66 1.65% of the increase in the signal-1.75%. The German and US 10 Yr spread (1.17%) is still trending down and 2 Yr spread (-0.24%) has seen a little bit of bounce in the trend of the support. As to whether the aid is considered or not needs to be watched. The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.17%) is to support the nearly 2.04-2.05% bounce, and we see now 2.20 2.25%.
India's 10 Yr India (8.82%) rose to 8.86 8.85%, but less than the resistance of the close, what is to be monitored. Only the resistance of the above we can see the 9.00%.
The bearish possibility is valid today but it requires breaking 1.3810 to confirm it. On the other hand, breaching 1.3895 weakens this possibility, while breaching 1.3945 fails any bearish possibility over intraday basis.
Support: 1.3810, 1.3770, 1.3740, 1.3715, 1.3680
Resistance: 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3910, 1.3945, 1.4005
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3845 targeting 1.3810, 1.3770 then 1.3715 and stop-loss above 1.3915
Linear Regression Indicators became more negative and MACD is moving further to the downside in addition to strengthening bearishness showing on AROON Indicator. Therefore, we expect today further bearishness. Of note, breaking 1.6470 is significant to push the pair further to the downside as will be explained in our next report.
Support: 1.6515, 1.6470, 1.6435, 1.6390, 1.6340
Resistance: 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670, 1.6700
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6550 targeting 1.6515, 1.6470, 1.6390 and stop-loss above 1.6625
Support: 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950
Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8770 targeting 0.8830 0.8875, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8700
Support: 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00, 100.70
Resistance: 102.30, 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 103.75
Recommendation Long above 102.00, targets at 102.70,103.40 and 103.70. Stop loss below 101.30
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