Forex Knowledge 28 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 28 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Despite the better-than-expected us unemployment report, a better market are trading almost completely flat in the United States, the GDP came in slightly lower than expected. Asian markets seems to have little praise for the price action.
The Dow (16264.23,-0.03%) are stuck with 500 points the band 16000 16500 for 6 weeks. Retest 16,000 may be in the cards now, but sideways, in the medium term, the transfer can be to take a bullish consolidation before breaking out to rise to 17,000 at a later date.
Shanghai (2045.40,-0.06%) is in a consolidation mode. Vulnerability confirmed below 2030-20 and strength has been confirmed as the 2080-85. The suspicion does not fall today, China no longer incorrectly and that the market for a new bear hoopla invites, if you already have a 6-year bear market is coming to an end.
Dax (9451.21, + 0.03%) has to prove our hardiness zone 9400-9460 peaked. A spot above the 9460 surmise 9700-9900, but we must Note the 9600-9650 temporarily in the area. Now it looks like one of the stronger market.
The Nikkei (14626.29, + 0.06%) has been steadily gaining 14200 14700 but the downtrend is valid up to 15,000 different. We are looking for a break in the 14200 to confirm the bearish momentum.
Nifty (6641.75, + 0.61%) came to us in the medium-term target zone 6650 6700 and maybe it's time to get a little bit careful here over the weekend and the end of the financial year coming to an end next Monday. Protect the 6620, it would still be possible to get on the end of the year, but a second chance to the FII 6750 eyewash goes to the head may not be excluded too. We keep a watch on 6570 6540 and if the weakness in the post.
COMMODITIES
The metals look rough when the oil market is not only the copper trading a bullish expectations.
Gold (1294.098) above the critical level has decreased but trade in 1285. The Bounce can lead to some ranged moves inside the 1285-1309, but then again may 1274 1260.8 level. Gold-Silver ratio (65.21) has dropped the decisive resistance, just as expected, and if this is the case, we may see a 64 in the next few weeks.
Silver (19.83) has recovered slightly to 39.70, and initiatives are small. Has the opportunity were 19.5 20.5 within regions, until we see the sharp movements.
Copper (3.0075) raised above 3 for the first time in two weeks, and this could be a sign of rising upwards. If it maintains more than 3 it will target the 3.15-3, to 25 in the next few weeks. A little rise to reinforces the bullishness in the near term.
Brent (107.69) trading-fine and the testing of the resistance near the 108. Although this is we may see a short lateral field of movement below 108. A break above the 110 level greater than 109-108 could. All in all, the uptrend. Nymex WTI (101.34) has risen sharply as expected and inventories declined significantly in Cushing. Now it is directed at 102 above, where it can reach toward the 104.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (80.10) has been steadily gaining in the triangle model, of course, but it remains firmly on their way to 80.50 after the end of the this fix-75. To keep up with the over-65, 79.70 strength remains unchanged.
EUR (1.3744) is still weak because it does not yet break above 1.3885-95 blank downtrend. Rough dynamics can enhance a break below 1.3750. Essential support comes from 1.3650.
Dollar-yen (102.14) to keep ahead of the 101 to keep a wider range of 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (140.37) cross the narrow Test the lower end of the company's 140-142, and the first sign of a break in the weakness of import. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139 49.98 but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131.
Pound (1.6621) has reached our initial goal of 1.6650 after resuming the medium-term uptrend. Now can expect significant support to rise 1.67 1.6750 unchanged at 1.6450.
Aussie (0.9287) has broken down before the signal to rise in the medium term, 0.9380 0.92 0.94. Fix for now would be restricted to 0.9150 0.91.
Dollar-rupee (60.31) has recovered after 4 consecutive session to a negative close. If it is able to sustain a 60.37 correction, the bounce can extend to 60.50-55. The main trend is still down.
INTEREST RATES
US 10 Yr (2.68%) dipped further and now have to give up to 2.50%. Although the 5 Yr (1.72%) saw a slight rise in trade, and in the long term, an important resistance area is 1.73 1.75 percent. Looking at the 10-5 Yr yield differential (0.97%), which is narrowed, we might see the rise of 5 v outputs 30 Yr (3.53%) saw a drop in the flattening of the yield curve.
German 10 Yr (1.54%) fell yesterday and is well on the way to 1.50% of our goal. German-US 2 Yr spread (-0.28%) fell below support near-0.25%-0.26% when the Euro (1.3744) below 1.3750.
Japan 10 Yr (0.63%) remained unchanged at 0.55%, near the ceiling in our range of 0.65%. After the break the resistance and we are targeting a close 0.65% 0.70% return. The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.06%) remained stable at around 2.05% of the support.

India's 10 Yr India (8.83%) saw the rise of between 8.75 8.85%-but stayed in%. An RBI Meeting scheduled for April 1, and expectations are that it will refrain from bringing the interest rates. We'll have to wait and see.

Forex Knowledge 26 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 26 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
The global markets are trading in the positive and trying to regain strength after the US consumer confidence data reached the highest point in the post-recession period. But technically, most of them are yet to confirm further rally.
The Dow (16367.88, +0.56%) is stuck in the 500 points band of 16000-16500 for more than 5 weeks now. This sideways medium term move may be taken as a bullish consolidation before breaking out to rise to 17000 later.
The Shanghai (2063.60, -0.18%) is not falling anymore nowadays on the bad Chinese data and all the hoopla about it entering a new bear market. This actually invites the suspicion if the already established 6 year long bear market is coming to a close. Right now we watch the 2080-85 levels for sustained rally or reversal back to lower levels.
The Dax (9338.40, +1.63%) recovered all of its loss incurred in the previous session but yet to break above our resistance zone of 9400-9460 to confirm a rally to 9700-9900. A failure to break above will keep the bearish options open.
Nikkei (14456, +0.23%) is consolidating in the range of 14200-14700 but the downtrend remains in force till 14700-800. We look for a break of 14200 to confirm the bearish momentum.
Nifty (6589.75, +0.09%) consolidated at the higher levels after a brief correction, which was limited to 6540 exactly in line with our expectation. At the end of this consolidation, it may rise to our initial target area of 6650-6700 where we would closely watch the price action for further clues.
COMMODITIES
Gold likely to weaken against Silver while the oil market looks bullish.
Gold (1312.00) seems to now retrace the recent rally from 1182 to 1388.5. It is trading low facing crucial resistance on the weekly charts which if holds may see 1300-1295 levels in the near term. Gold-Silver ratio (65.68) is stable for now and is likely to move down towards 63.7 indicating that Gold may weaken further against Silver (19.973) which is testing support near current levels. An eventual rise towards 20-20.5 could be seen in the coming sessions.
Copper (2.9975) has risen sharply forming a double bottom on the daily charts. Crucial resistance at 3, if it is able to break may rise higher to 3.15-3.25 else; may be pushed to 2.9 levels again. Confirmation of an upmove would come above 3.
Brent (107.15) is testing crucial supports near current levels and may rise to 108 in a few sessions. Overall the uptrend remains intact.
Nymex WTI (99.39) is stable for now and is trading near crucial support and resistance zone in the 97-99 regions. A sustained break above 100 could trigger a sharp up move towards 110-112. The ranged movements now may help the bulls steam up a little to take the prices higher. While below 100.5, movements may be restricted within 100.5-97 levels.
CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (79.99) remains on course to its way to 80.50-75 after the expected correction going on right now. Staying above 79.70-65, the strength remains intact.
The Euro (1.3814) has bounced sharply but yet to break above 1.3885-95 to negate the downtrend. The bearish momentum may intensify on a break below 1.3750.
Dollar-Yen (102.31) held above 101 to maintain the broader range of 101-104. The sideways action in this range may continue for some more time before a decisive move emerges.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.34) remains stuck in a narrow range of 140.40-142 for the last few days and needs to break it for a trending move. The bullish view for 144-145 survives as long as it holds above the major support area of 139-138.50 but a break below this support may turn the view bearish and may pull it down to 136-135.50 and even 131. Initial sign of weakness will be a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6534) is trying to bounce from our buying zone and the medium term trend decider level of 1.6470-50 now. Now if it manages to hold above 1.6450 and breaks above 1.6585, a resumption of the uptrend may be expected.
Aussie (0.9158) is showing initial signs of strength but only a break above 0.9210 would confirm a rally to 0.93-0.9350 initially. A failure to break above 0.92 may still drag the Aussie down.
Dollar-Rupee (60.48) has closed below the support zone of 60.60-50 with no sign of strength visible yet. We may see the support of 60.25-15 or even 60.00-59.90 getting tested now before any buying emerges.
INTEREST RATES
The resistance at 2.75% seems to be holding really well for the US 10Yr (2.75%) as it has been unable to move beyond it since Feb-14. Unless 2.75% is broken the downside risk of 2.50% remains open in the long run. But beyond 2.75% we can expect to see 3.00% and even higher. The US 5Yr (1.73%) remained unchanged trading near the resistance zone at1.73% - 1.75%. The US 30Yr (3.60%) has also been trading low, thus making the US yield curve flatter.
The German 10Yr (1.57%) is trading low after coming off from the resistance near 1.65-1.66%. A further fall to 1.50% seems possible while below 1.60%. The 2Yr spread (-0.26%) has dropped and has come to test the trend support at current levels. A bounce from here and we can expect it to go up to -0.20%.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.13%) is stable can target 2.20-2.25%. The Japan 10Yr (0.61%) remains stable and is ranged between 0.55% - 0.65%. A break beyond this range will give further direction.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.79%) saw a slight rise but it is still range bound between 8.75% and 8.85%. A break beyond this range will give us further direction.

EURUSD: 1.3865-1.3880 on the upside, 1.3740-1.3755 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.9210-0.9225 on the upside, 0.9045-0.9060 on the downside.
USDJPY: 102.75-102.90 on the upside, 101.30-101.45 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6580-1.6595 on the upside, 1.6435-1.6450 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1230-1.1245 on the upside, 1.10800-1.1095 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8620-0.8635 on the upside, 0.8435-0.8450 on the downside.
EURJPY: 141.85-142.00 on the upside, 140.05-140.20 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8405-0.8420 on the upside, 0.8305-0.8320 on the downside.
XAUUSD: 1335.00-1345.00 on the upside, 1295.00-1305.00 on the downside.
BRENT: 108.00-109.00 on the upside, 104.00-105.00 on the downside.

SP500: 1895.00-1905.00 on the upside, 1825.00-1835.00 on the downside.

Forex Knowledge 25 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 25 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

The global opinion is a bit dumb this morning when a U.s. manufacturing report came off a tad expectations but which could be carried out in a normal correction to the sharp rally in Asian markets enjoyed by today.
The Dow (16276.69,-0.16%) has stuck with the band more than 16000 16500 points for 5 weeks now. Sideways in the medium term, the transfer may be made to rise 17,000 to stabilise before rising later in the outbreak.
Shanghai (2064.16, 0.10%) does not fall today on China's error and all the hoopla about it by typing a new bear market. This actually invites suspicion, if already for 6 years in a long bear market is coming to an end. Now we see a sustained rally, or a reversal of the lower levels of -85-2080.
Dax (9188.77,-1.65%) were rejected and the inability to break sharply from levels above 9400 9400-9460 can pull down 9050-9000 level once again. The Nikkei (14425.14,-0.35) has been steadily gaining 14200 14700 area but the downtrend is in force till the 14,700-800. We are looking for a break in the 14200 to confirm the bearish momentum.
Nifty (6583.50, + 1.39%) rallied sharply to the look and to expand it further to 6650 6700. The correction should be limited to 6540-25 will continue to rise.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1312.23) has fallen sharply to achieve the objective of our drawbacks of almost 1300. In the autumn of 1300 can't wait to where it can rise back to targeting the 1368-1380; a break below the 1300 (if seen) could push prices of 1295.
Silver (19.98) has recovered from a right from use near 19.8, and if this is true, according to expect we may see a rise towards the 20.5-21 in the near future. However, it still can be seen to fall 19.5 below 12.3. The Gold-Silver ratio (70.89) is dipped in a bit of a retracement of the decline, and if we see a slight rise of 63.7 else I could toward the 66 to 66.5 fell.
Copper (2.9550) remains inside the 3-2.90% large business now. It may fix some time before you were in the shops.
Brent (106.51) are hard to get but the extremely variable between the territories of the 106 and 108. Could it fall below the 106 104. In the long term, is expected to remain bullish.
Nymex WTI (99.28) slightly rising but overall the bears do not seem to have gotten enough strength to take control of prices. Below, the movements may be restricted to 100.5 100.5-97 level.
Brent WTI (7.21) is stable for now. It can test 6-6.8 drawback where it can Bounce back towards the 8.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (69.35) remains, of course, made their way to 80.50-75 expected repair going on right now. To keep up with the over-65, 79.70 strength remains unchanged.
EUR (1.3836) has bounced sharply but still break above 1.3885-95 blank downtrend. Rough dynamics can enhance a break below 1.3750.
Dollar-yen (102.22) held above the 101 to keep a wider range of 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (141.44) cross is stuck in the narrow 140.40-142 in the last few days and have to get rid of the trends to move. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139 49.98 but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131. The first sign of weakness is a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.65) is close to our buy zone, and in the medium-term trend of the qualifying level of 1.6470-50. Now, if it is able to sustain the level of stop loss at 1.64 and violating the above, can be expected to continue the uptrend 1.6585.
Aussie (0.9147) is one of the characters of the original strength but the only break of the first set before rallying to 0.93 0.9210 0.9350. Do not break the 0.92 yet to pull out of the Aussie.
Dollar-rupee (60.7750) has been tested by our target now, and, in particular, the trace of the 60.80-70 strength does not appear yet. The price reaction of the long-term support in the region decide to follow through or 51.61-50 more rangebound movement.
INTEREST RATES
US 10-5 Yr yield differential (1.01%) has remained stable in the US for 5 v (1.73%) was unchanged and 10 v (2.73%) declined slightly and fell below 2.75%. As well as 5 Yr and 10 yr yields test key resistance near the 1.75% and 2.75% respectively. Just above the break we will see US produce the resistance curve getting steeper.
German 10 Yr (1.58%) to loose the resistance near 1.65 1.66 percent rise in the US contrary to expectations. The German and US 10 Yr spread (-1.10%) and can become up to-1.05% to 1.03% of the test resistor there. 2 Yr spread (-0.21%), is moving in accordance with the euro (1.3836), which returns a bit in an instant.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.12%) have a stable address 2.20 to 2.25%. Japan 10 Yr (0.61%) is a variation of the bound between 0.55 0.65 percent. After a break in this region to give the direction.

India's 10 Yr India (8.78%) is dipped in the still, but it is still a region bound by the close to 8.75% 8.85%, close to the support and resistance. After the break, this region offers us a new direction.

 Last week's downside move took the pair out of the medium-term ascending channel showing on graph, as the short-term ascending channel on graph was breached. These catalysts strengthens the possibility of further bearishness this week and trading below 1.3895 keeps the bearish possibility, while stabilizing below 1.3810 strengthens this possibility.
RSI is totally neutral but below line 50. Stochastic is touching line 20 in an attempt to a positive crossover. Therefore, th epair has to breack 1.3720 this week to confirm extending the downside move.
Support: 1.3780, 1.3720, 1.3665, 1.3620, 1.3580
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3815, 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3945
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3800 targeting 1.3720, 1.3665 then 1.3580 and stop-loss above 1.3895

 The pair dropped last week after stabilizing below 1.6600, but we notice with the beginning of this week that the pair is stable above the bullish key support level of the ascending channel clsoe to 38.2% correction at 1.6450.
Breaking the referred to 1.6450 level is significant to confirm extending the downside move. But by examening the negative Linear Regression Indicators, we notice that the possibility of the mentioned break is valid. Tradtional MACD is negative and AROON is showing a downside move.
The downside move remains valid by consolidating below 1.6600, but stability below 1.6545 strengthens this possibility.
Support: 1.6450, 1.6390, 1.6335, 1.6280, 1.6220
Resistance: 1.6500, 1.6545, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6500 targeting 1.6450, 1.6390 then 1.6220 and stop-loss above 1.6600 this week

USDCHF continues to hover in a tight range near the main descending resistance for the overall bearish wave, following the major rebound of the 127.1 extension level at 0.8702. We expect the upside to resume where a break above the descending resistance should confirm more upside in the near term, targeting 0.8900 and 0.8930 levels. Holding above 0.8775 should keep the short term bias to the upside.
Support: 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950

Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8815 targeting 0.8860, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8765

USDJPY maintains the rebound of 101.30 support area, settling near the next resistance at 102.70 and the 50-days SMA, where a break above the latter will probably confirm the extension of the rebound, eying 103.75 as the next potential stop. Holding above 102.00 should keep the intraday bias to the upside, while the overall bullish trend remains dominant so long as above 100.70.
Support: 102.30, 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00
Resistance: 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 103.75, 104.00

Recommendation Long above 102.20, targets at 102.70,103.00 and 103.40. Stop loss below 101.75 

Forex Knowledge 24 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 24 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
The markets are shrugging off a worse than expected manufacturing data coming out of China and trading deeply in the green.
The Dow (16302.77, -0.17%) shot up to 16450 levels before ending in the negative to keep the bearish options open. The correction may continue to test the 16100-16000 levels once again before breaking above 16500 later, that would lead to a rally towards 17000.
The Shanghai (2047.5, -0.01%), contrary to the expectation bounced back sharply to 2060 from the old support of 1985 but the worse than expected Chine PMI data this morning may bring it down once more. The Dax (9342.94, +0.50%) is yet to break above the 9400 level we have been eyeing. This zone of 9400-9460 is important for the bulls to sustain their strength. The Nikkei (14484.06, +1.83) recovered most of its loss incurred in the last session but the downtrend remains in force till 14700-800. We look for a break of 14200 to confirm the bearish momentum.
Decent chances of seeing a strong bounce in the Nifty (6493.20, +0.16%) today as it has managed to hold above the trendline support in the 6480-60 region. There could be potential for 6600 also.
COMMODITIES
Precious metals are trading lower while the Oil market have bounced from support regions.
Gold (1326.04) is trading lower and testing support near 1324.5. While below 1335, we may see moves within 1324-1335 keeping 1300 on the downside but a break above 1335 may take it higher to 1360-1380.
Silver (20.17) continues to fall and may target 20-19.75 in the coming sessions as the Gold-Silver ratio (65.72) continues to target 66-66.5 from where it may come off. Till then we do not expect a rise in Silver.
Copper (2.9320) is stable for now, trading within the crucial levels of 3-2.90 and may continue so for some more time. No major movement expected in the near sessions. There are equal chances of breakouts on either direction.
Brent (106.91) has bounced from 105.4 and may target 108. It is highly fluctuating in the broad 105-108 regions but looks bullish in the longer term.
Nymex WTI (98.49) has bounced from support near 98.23 and may target resistance near 100.5-101.38. A break above 101.38 may take it higher to 102 levels. Note that 98-102 levels are crucial and an efective break on either side may signal a major movement ahead.Brent-WTI spread (7.48) is stable for now but may target 8-8.5 from where we may see a fall to 5.
CURRENCIES
After the sharp reaction to the FOMC meet last week, most of the currencies are in a consolidation mode and technically unchanged in structure.
Dollar Index (80.11) remains on course to its way to 80.50-75 with a possible correction interrupting the rally. The bullish momentum remains intact as long as it holds above 79.90-70.
The Euro (1.3796) has broken below 1.3790 to enter into a short term downtrend and staying below 1.3810-30, may reach 1.3650-1.36 soon.
Dollar-Yen (102.51) held above 101 to shoot up sharply and maintain the broader range of 101-104. The sideways action in this range may continue for some more time before a decisive move emerges.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.42) remains in an uptrend that is in a risk of getting nullified if a rally doesn’t materialize soon. The bullish view for 144-145 survives as long as it holds above the major support area of 139-138.50 but a break below this support may turn the view bearish and may pull it down to 136-135.50 and even 131. Initial sign of weakness will be a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6482) is close to our buying zone and the medium term trend decider level of 1.6470-50 now. Now if it manages to hold above our stop loss level at 1.64, a resumption of the uptrend may be expected.
Aussie (0.9070) is consolidating in range of 0.89-0.9150 for the last 3 weeks with no particular directional clue. A break below 0.8925-0.89 may ensure a journey back to 0.87 now.
Dollar-Rupee (60.89) closed just below the support of 60.90 and may extend the fall to 60.80-70 now. The price reaction in the area of 60.80-70 and then the long term support zone of 60.60-50 will determine any follow through or more rangebound movement.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10-5Yr yield differential (1.02%) has dropped further. We see that the US 5Yr (1.73%) is up slightly and is trading just above the resistance zone near 1.70%. A break above the current resistance zone can see the 5Yr rise to 1.80%. The 10Yr (2.75%) has dipped a bit but is expected to be ranged between 2.75-2.80%.
The German 10Yr (1.63%) remained stable and is trading near our target of 1.65%. A break above the resistance near 1.65-1.66% can signal a rise to 1.70-1.75%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.12%) is up slightly but is still in a downtrend. The 2Yr spread (-0.23%) remained stable after bouncing from the trend support. A rise to -0.15% can be seen if the support holds.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.15%) has remained stable after a bounce from the support near 2.04-2.05% and can target 2.20-2.25% now. The Japan 10Yr (0.60%) has come down from 0.65% (13-Mar-14) and is range bound between 0.55-0.65%. A break beyond this range will give further direction.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.80%) is down slightly. It has become range bound between the support near 8.75% and the resistance near 8.85%. A break beyond this range will give us further direction.
DATA TODAY
1:45 GMT or 7:15 IST CN Manufacturing PMI
...Expected 48.70 ...Previous 48.50 ...Actual 48.1

FRIDAY'S DATA

Euro Area Monthly Balance of Payments
...Expected 18.40 EUR Bln ...Previous 20.00 EUR Bln ...Actual 25.30 EUR Bln

CA Inflation Y/Y
...Expected 0.90 % ...Previous 1.50 % ...Actual 1.10 %

EURUSD: 1.3845-1.3860 on the upside, 1.3710-1.3725 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.9140-0.9155 on the upside, 0.8960-0.8975 on the downside.
USDJPY: 103.20-103.35 on the upside, 100.65-100.80 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6565-1.6580 on the upside, 1.6405-1.6420 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1280-1.1295 on the upside, 1.1105-1.1120 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8575-0.8590 on the upside, 0.8385-0.8400 on the downside.
EURJPY: 141.85-142.00 on the upside, 140.20-140.35 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8410-0.8425 on the upside, 0.8305-0.8320 on the downside.
XAUUSD: 1345.00-1355.00 on the upside, 1310.00-1320.00 on the downside.
BRENT: 108.00-109.00 on the upside, 103.50-104.50 on the downside.
SP500: 1895.00-1905.00 on the upside, 1820.00-1830.00 on the downside.

 The pair dropped yesterday and is currently trading below 38.2% correction of the latest bullish wave that started from bottom 1.3478 reaching the top 1.3965. Momentum indicators still tends to be negative and Linear Regression Indicator 34 is negative, all these catalysts combines with failing to stabilize above the key support of the ascending channel.
Therefore, the bearish possibility remains valid and trading below 1.3895 strengthen it. Volatility is expectated in light of trading close to 38.2% correction at 1.3780, but breaking this level could take the pair easily towards 50% and 61.8% corrections at 1.3720 and 1.3665 respectively.
Support: 1.3720, 1.3700, 1.3680, 1.3665, 1.3620
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3815, 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3945
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3790 targeting 1.3720, 1.3645 then 1.3620 and stop-loss above 1.3895

 Negative pressures continues over the pair as it approaches the key support of the short-term upside move starting from the bottom 1.5852 reaching the top 1.6822. The bullish key support level is close to 38.2% correction at 1.6450; but at the same time, grear negativity is showing on AROON Indicator, MACD and Linear Regression Indicators.
There is a possibility of breaking 1.6450, but failing to break it might trigger great volatility and perhaps some bullish corrections before extending bearishness. Generally, trading below 1.6670 is negative while stabilizing below 1.6600 is more negative.
Support: 1.6450, 1.6435, 1.6390, 1.6340, 1.6300
Resistance: 1.6515, 1.6545, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6500 targeting 1.6450, 1.6390, 1.6300 and stop-loss above 1.6600

 USDCHF is hovering near the main descending resistance for the overall bearish wave, following the major rebound of the 127.1 extension level at 0.8702, where the ongoing pause may be temporarily as we expect price to resume the bullish rebound. A break above the descending resistance e should confirm more upside in the near term , targeting 0.8900 and 0.8930 levels.
Support: 0.8830, 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700
Resistance: 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950, 0.8980
Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8815 targeting 0.8860, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8765

USDJPY is retreating of 102.70 resistance level an the 50-days SMA, is price maintains the overall sideways bias among 100.70-103.70 levels, a breakout of the regions is necessary to signal a sustained directional move. For now, the bias continues to be sideways, where over intraday basis, the bullish scenario remains favored and the price may face initial support at around 101.90 level.
Support: 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00, 100.70
Resistance: 102.30, 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 10375
Recommendation Long above 101.90, targets at 102.40,102.70,1and 03.40. Stop loss below 101.30 

Forex Knowledge 21 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 21 MARCH 2014 currency Report

The Dow (16331.05, + 2.01%), + 108.88 yesterday's bounce back from a potentially very bullish. For more than a week near the 16400-500 (if seen) can lead to 17,000 in the medium term. BUT the Lysenkon above the 16,500 could be very rough as well. So the market looks like it is very important to make/break the situation. You have to be careful.
The problem is, in Shanghai (2000 + 0.33%) still look weak, targeting to 19,200. Dax (9296.12) has risen this week after bouncing from near 8900 last week, but has to be more than 9400 today with confidence. Japan is a holiday today, but the Nikkei (14224.23) was closed pretty rough today, opportunities and reduce counts toward the 14,000 next week.
Decent opportunities to see a strong bounce in the nifty (6483.10) today issued a trendline support 6480-60 in and bounce on the Dow last night. There could be a potential 6600 also. Let's Look At It.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1332.85) is trading a little more after bouncing from the support almost 1321 and can target 1360-1380, in the short term, the above 1,350. All in all, the uptrend.
Silver (20.57) is out, but has recovered slightly in the crucial support 20.5 20.2. Falls below the 20.2 to 19.5-19 level. The Gold-Silver ratio (65.45) is targeting 66 to 66.5 in the near future where it is. Until then, we will not wait for the Silver.
Copper (2.9330) is marketing a crucial level of 3 2.90 and FED the signal to cut rates has fallen. We'll have to wait to clarify further the movements seem vague. We now have an equal chance to breakouts for each direction.
Brent (106.13) is a break in the close support of 106 where it can Bounce a 108-109 levels even if the Nymex WTI (192.06) is trying to lead, ultimately, to 99.8-100 and closer to 101.5. All in all, the near future looks bullish. Brent WTI spread (7.63) has recovered from a strong support to close 5.5 as expected and may continue to rise 8-8.5 of which can be seen in the decline of 5.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (51.19) has hit the 80,35 quickly and is well on the way to 80.50-75 possible fixes to stop the rally. Bullish momentum will remain unchanged as long as it maintains a 79.90-70.
EUR (1.3825) has broken below 1.3790 the short-term downtrend and 1.3810-30 below, can achieve 1.3650-1, 36, soon.
Dollar-yen (117.66) is maintained and operated by more than one shoot up sharply, 101, 101-104. Sideways action in this area can go on for more time before the plunge will go up.
Euro-yen (141.08) remains in the uptrend, which is the risk of getting blank if a rally Cross will not happen soon. The bullish View of 144-145 will survive as long as it keeps up the great support in the area of 139-138, but below this support may drop the view and you can pull down a 136-135.50, and up to 131. The first sign of weakness is a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6515) is close to our buy zone, and in the medium-term trend of the qualifying level of 1.6470-50. Now if it will be able to hold above the stop loss level of 1.64, one can expect the continuation of the uptrend.
Aussie (0.9061) is stable, with a selection of last 3 weeks no 0.9150 0.89 specifically geared to the clue. A break below the 0.87 0.89 0.8925 can ensure the way back now.
Dollar-rupee (57.53), is stuck in the narrow 60.90 61.50. Until this area gets broken decisively, it would be better to trade in the region sell higher and buying less.
INTEREST RATES
US 5 (v) (1.70%) is not affected 1.70% and resistance testing. 1.70% and above, we see the 5 Yr rise to 1.80% suggested the United States 10-5 Yr yield difference (1.07 percent) to breaking below to aid in the weekly charts. 10 v (2.77%) is stable and is expected to be a ranged from 2.75 2.80%.
German 10 Yr (1.64%) is nearly 1.65% of our goal. Pause before the resistance almost 1.70 1.66 1.65% of the increase in the signal-1.75%. The German and US 10 Yr spread (1.17%) is still trending down and 2 Yr spread (-0.24%) has seen a little bit of bounce in the trend of the support. As to whether the aid is considered or not needs to be watched. The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.17%) is to support the nearly 2.04-2.05% bounce, and we see now 2.20 2.25%.

India's 10 Yr India (8.82%) rose to 8.86 8.85%, but less than the resistance of the close, what is to be monitored. Only the resistance of the above we can see the 9.00%.

 The pair dropped sharply yesterday achieving a daily closing below 1.3845 by forming a long bearish candle. The downside move showed the negativity of Linear Regression Indicator 34 for the first time since the fifth of last month, accompanied by the negativity of Stochastic.
The bearish possibility is valid today but it requires breaking 1.3810 to confirm it. On the other hand, breaching 1.3895 weakens this possibility, while breaching 1.3945 fails any bearish possibility over intraday basis.
Support: 1.3810, 1.3770, 1.3740, 1.3715, 1.3680
Resistance: 1.3845, 1.3895, 1.3910, 1.3945, 1.4005
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair around 1.3845 targeting 1.3810, 1.3770 then 1.3715 and stop-loss above 1.3915

 The pair declined yesterday and is trading stably below 1.6600 levels which is negative, while the upside move will return if the pair breached 1.6670.
Linear Regression Indicators became more negative and MACD is moving further to the downside in addition to strengthening bearishness showing on AROON Indicator. Therefore, we expect today further bearishness. Of note, breaking 1.6470 is significant to push the pair further to the downside as will be explained in our next report.
Support: 1.6515, 1.6470, 1.6435, 1.6390, 1.6340
Resistance: 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6670, 1.6700
Recommendation Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6550 targeting 1.6515, 1.6470, 1.6390 and stop-loss above 1.6625

 USDCHF rallied yesterday, breaking back above 0.8800 and approaching the main descending resistance for the bearish wave, after the 127.1 extension level managed to hold back further decline. The bullish engulfing candle yesterday hints we will probably see more upside over the short term, and a break above the aforementioned falling trend line should confirm this scenario, targeting 0.8875 and 0.8930 levels.
Support: 0.8800, 0.8770, 0.8750, 0.8700, 0.8670
Resistance: 0.8830, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.8950
Recommendation Long the pair above 0.8770 targeting 0.8830 0.8875, and 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8700

USDJPY rebounded strongly of 101.30 support area yesterday, hitting the 50-days SMA and 102.70 resistance level, before retreating slightly. A break above 102.70 is necessary now to confirm more upside over the short term, probably towards the next potential resistance at 103.75 level. The bullish bias is favored over intraday basis, and 101.90 should limit an extended downside correction.
Support: 102.00, 101.65, 101.35, 101.00, 100.70
Resistance: 102.30, 102.70, 103.00, 103.40, 103.75

Recommendation Long above 102.00, targets at 102.70,103.40 and 103.70. Stop loss below 101.30

Forex Knowledge 20 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 20 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
The global markets are trading in the negative zone though not sharply as the possibility of the smart money flowing back to US has arisen after the FED signaled a possible rate hike in 2015.
Nikkei (14386.72, -0.52%) has achieved our initial target of 14400 and may fall further to our next target support of 14000. A break below 14000 may accelerate the decline to 13750 and then 13200.
Shanghai (2019.28, -0.12%) bears dominate firmly as long as it stays below 2040-50 and reversal will come only on a break above 2080. A break below 1980-75 may take it to 1950-45.
Nifty (6524.05, +0.11%) is in a consolidation mode after the sharp bounce from 6430 to 6575. As long as the short term support zone of 6480-60 is unbroken, the bullish momentum remains intact. On the other hand, a break below 6460 may activate an intermediate corrective phase.
Dow (16222.17, -0.70%) has created a small H&S pattern with neckline at 16000 in the short term charts. The bulls would need to protect 16000 and break above 16500-600 to keep the uptrend intact but a break below 16000 may drag the index to the long term support area of 15600-500.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1330.85) fell sharply after the FED cut monetary stimulus and officials predicted a rise in interest rates next year; curbing demand for the metal. Currently testing crucial support near 1325, it may bounce back to 1350 levels and above. But a break below 1325 could push it to 1300.
Silver (20.667) is held by support near 20.5 and needs to bounce back from here. Failure to bounce from 20.5 could push it to 19.5-19 levels. Gold-Silver ratio (64.37) is testing support near 64.26 and may target 66-66.5 in the near term.
Copper (2.9640) rose a bit after fluctuating highly in the 2.87-99 regions trying to regain after the recent fall. A rise above 3 is expected in the coming sessions to pull up the prices further towards 3.15.
Brent (106.1) is testing crucial long term support on the weekly in the 105.65-106 zones and may bounce back towards 108-109 levels. Nymex WTI (99.25) is rallying towards 100-101. Overall the near term looks bullish while the long term uptrend still holds.
CURRENCIES
The US Fed continued its QE cut as planned but the hawkish sentiment expressed spooked the Euro and the Emerging markets and strengthened the Dollar.
Dollar Index (80.01) has snapped back sharply from the support area after the Fed signaled a rate hike next year. The break above 79.70 indicates further rise towards 80.50-75 soon.
The Euro (1.3825) has broken below the two week low of 1.3825 and is flirting with the channel support at 1.38-1.3790. A break below 1.3790 will ensure the end of short term uptrend and may pull it down to 1.3650-1.36.
Dollar-Yen (102.44) held above 101 to shoot up sharply and maintain the broader range of 101-104. The sideways action in this range may continue for some more time before a decisive move emerges.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.58) remains in an uptrend without any serious momentum The bullish view for 144-145 survives as long as it holds above the major support area of 139-138 but a break below this support may turn the view bearish and may pull it down to 136-135.50 and even 131. Initial sign of weakness will be a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6538) is close to our buying zone and the medium term trend decider level of 1.6470-50 now. Now if it manages to hold above our stop loss level at 1.64, a resumption of the uptrend may be expected.
Aussie (0.9017) has faced sharp rejection from our resistance area in 0.9150-0.92 after it reached a very important time-price confluence zone. A break below 0.8925-0.89 may ensure a journey back to 0.87 now.
Dollar-Rupee (60.95) held its ground above the major support in 60.90-80 and may open sharply higher on the back of possible outflow from all the EM currencies after the Fed statement last night. Now it has to tackle the supply zone of 61.55-60 before rising further towards 61.80-90.
Although Stocks and Currencies have reacted negatively to the FOMC yesterday, Swap Costs have not moved up dramatically. Only the 30-Yr Swap Cost (-0.027%) seems to be in an uptrend, normalizing towards Zero from levels near -0.5% seen back in Aug-11.
That said, the US Yield Curve may get a little flatter while moving up laterally as well, now that the end of QE has been spelt out as clearly as it possibly can be. Watch whether the US-5Yr (1.70%) breaks above formidable Resistance at 1.70% or not. If it does, we could some rapid rise there, which could spook the markets. The 10Yr (2.76%) is likely to remain below 2.80% for some more time.
In the meanwhile, the German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.19%) is trending firmly down now and even the 2Yr Spread (-0.27%) has come down to test trend Support. A fall to and below -0.30% (if seen) could trigger massive profit-taking on Euro Longs. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.15%) has moved up sharply, pulling Dollar-Yen up with it. With Support firming up above 2.0% now, maybe we can see further rise towards 2.20-2.25%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.78%) remains well below 9.0% as the recent inflation data is giving the RBI some respite before the next meeting on 01-Apr.
All in all, watch whether 1.75% on the US-5Yr breaks or not.
DATA TODAY
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST SNB Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Philifed Index
...Expected 4.20 ... Previous -6.30
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 4650 K ...Previous 4620 K

DATA YESTERDAY
UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 % ...Actual 0-0-9 %
UK Unemp
...Expected 7.20 % ...Previous 7.20 % ...Actual 7.20 %
US Current Account Balance
...Expected -88.00 $ Bln ...Previous -96.40 $ Bln ...Actual -81.10 $ Bln

US FOMC Meeting
...Expected <0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 % ...Actual < 0.25 %


EURUSD: 1.3975-1.3990 on the upside, 1.3660-1.3675 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.9185-0.9200 on the upside, 0.8890-0.8905 on the downside.
USDJPY: 103.20-103.35 on the upside, 100.55-100.70 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6715-1.6730 on the upside, 1.6385-1.6400 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1330-1.1345 on the upside, 1.1035-1.1050 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8685-0.8700 on the upside, 0.8375-0.8390 on the downside.
EURJPY: 141.95-142.10 on the upside, 139.70-139.85 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8410-0.8425 on the upside, 0.8315-0.8330 on the downside.
XAUUSD: 1370.00-1385.00 on the upside, 1300.00-1310.00 on the downside.
BRENT: 107.50-108.50 on the upside, 104.00-105.00 on the downside.

SP500: 1890.00-1900.00 on the upside, 1820.00-1830.00 on the downside

Forex Knowledge 19 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 19 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

EQUITIES
The global markets are in a mixed mode as it waits for the conclusion of the US FOMC meet today and the first Fed policy statement from Janet Yellen.
Nikkei (14361.19, -0.35%) has achieved our initial target of 14400 and may fall further to our next target support of 14000. A break below 14000 may accelerate the decline to 13750 and then 13200.
Shanghai (2009.85, -0.76%) bears dominate firmly as long as it stays below 2040-50 and reversal will come only on a break above 2080. A break below 1980-75 may take it to 1950-45.
Nifty (6516.65, +0.19%) lost nearly all of its initial gains after hitting a new life high at 6575. As long as the short term support zone of 6480-60 is unbroken, the bullish momentum remains intact. On the other hand, a break below 6460 may activate a week-long corrective phase. The preferred direction of the market should be clear in the next 2 sessions.
Dow (16336.19, +0.55%) is holding above our support of 15900 and may consolidate between 15900 and 16600 for some time before launching the next move. The major uptrend will be threatened only on a break below 15500.
COMMODITIES
There is no major movement in the commodity market. Oil market seems bullish in the near term.
Gold (1357.71) has bounced a bit from the 13-day MA while Silver (20.86) is trading below crucial resistance near 20.98. Gold-Silver ratio (65.053) is in an upward rally targeting 66-66.5 in the near term. This signals that there could be further decline in Silver towards 20.5 whereas Gold may remain ranged with smaller movements. Immediate support near 1350.9-1351 is seen for Gold.
Copper (2.9450) has managed to sustain above 2.90 levels in the past 3-4 sessions but the bulls doesn? seems to gather strength at this moment. A rise above 3 is essential to indicate any upmove. For now we may see ranged moves within the 2.90-3 regions.
Brent- Nymex spread (7.72) saw a sharp fall from resistance near 10 in line with our expectation and may now test support near 6.9-7.00 region. Brent (106.63) is testing crucial long term support on the weekly and may bounce back towards 108-109 levels.
Nymex WTI (98.41) is ranged for now and may rise towards 100 in the near term. Note that it is testing immediate support near 98.23. Overall it is in a long term uptrend.
CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (79.37) has been trading between our support at 79.10 and resistance of 80. A break above 79.70-80 may bring a trending rally but a break below 79.10 might be decisively bearish in the long term.
The Euro (1.3928) has turned rangebound too between 1.3830 and 1.3970. The major support of 1.3830 was not breached but to generate upward momentum, the bulls must take Euro above 1.3980 and 1.4070. Otherwise, more of consolidation can be seen.
Dollar-Yen (101.34) is struggling near the lower end of the broader range of 101-104. The short term direction depends on the support of 101-100.75 now as a break below may take Yen to 99-98.75 but holding above it may continue the range bound price action.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.12) remains in an uptrend without any serious momentum The bullish view to 144-145 survives as long as it holds above the major support area of 139-138 but a break below this support may turn the view bearish and may pull it down to 136-135.50 and even 131. Initial sign of weakness will be a break below 140.50.
Pound (1.6601) is in a correction of its major uptrend now in the form of a bullish flag pattern. It may reach 1.69-1.7050 after the current correction finishes. All the dips till 1.65-1.6470 may be bought into.
Aussie (0.9113) has reached a very important time-price confluence zone and the bulls must break above 0.9150-0.92 by the current week to confirm an intermediate term reversal or else a sharp fall may take it back towards 0.87.
Dollar-Rupee (61.19) opened sharply lower only to find buying at the old support zone of 60.90-80 to end the day unchanged. Holding above 61, it may continue to rise towards the resistance of 61.55-60 once more. Weakness will set in below 61
INTEREST RATES
The FOMC Meeting concludes tonight and markets are eagerly waiting to see Janet Yellen continue to taper. The US 10Yr (2.67%) remained stable in the range of 2.65-2.70%. The 10-5Yr yield differential (1.13%) has dropped further and is testing support at current levels on the weekly charts. A bounce from the support may take it 1.20% and we may see the 10Yr rising again to target 2.75%.
The German 10Yr (1.57%) was also stable, while above 1.55%, may see a rally to 1.65%. The 10Yr Bund - Bond Spread (-1.10%) is in the range of -1.18% to -1.05%.
The Japan 10Yr (0.62%) is range bound between 0.60-0.65%. A movement beyond this range will give further direction. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.05%) is moving in complete correlation to Dollar-Yen (101.34), testing support at current levels just as Dollar-Yen struggles near the support at 101-100.75.

India's 10Yr GOI (8.81%) has moved past our target of 8.80%. Above 8.80% we may see a rise to 8.90% and maybe even 9.00%.

 EURUSD turned to the upside to confirm stability above 1.3890 resistance, now good support. Trading above this level keeps chances for the upside move intact.
Linear Regression Indicators are positive and that supports the upside move within the channel shown on graph. Only a breakout below 1.3810 risks failing our expectations for today we will depend on stability above 1.3845 to keep intraday positive expectations valid.
Support: 1.3895, 1.3845, 1.3810, 1.3770, 1.3740
Resistance: 1.3945, 1.3970, 1.4005, 1.4080, 1.4150
Recommendation Based on the above, long the pair around 1.3900 targeting 1.3945, 1.4005 then 1.4080 and stop-loss below 1.3810

 The negative crossover on Linear Regression Indicators 34 & 55 deepened however all attempts for the breakout below 1.6600 support with daily closing below it so far failed. This limits the effect of the negative crossover on LRIs.
Nevertheless, AROON is slightly biased lower and MACD is moving to the downside and that makes us remain on the bearish side waiting for the daily closing below 1.6600. Therefore, we prefer to remain on the sidelines for now to confirm the move.
Support: 1.6600, 1.6580, 1.6545, 1.6515, 1.6470
Resistance: 1.6625, 1.6670, 1.6700, 1.6740, 1.6785
Recommendation Based on the above, we prefer to remain on the sidelines waiting for more confirmations For traders capable and willing of enduring higher risk based on negativity on indicators, short the pair below 1.6670 targeting 1.6580, 1.6515 then 1.6470 and stop-loss above 1.6740

 Over daily basis, we can see USDCHF stable above 127% Fibonacci correction around 0.8700, stability above which is accompanied with stability above the breached descending resistance –now support- that is trending lower with time.
Stability above 0.8700 is positive and makes us favor more upside attempts, however negativity on Linear Regression Indicators require a breach of 0.8755 to confirm the upside move. Only a breakout below 0.8680 will weaken the upside move.
Support: 0.8700, 0.8680, 0.8650, 0.8620, 0.8580
Resistance: 0.8755, 0.8800, 0.8840, 0.8860, 0.8900
Recommendation Based on the above, buy the pair above 0.8720 targeting 0.8755, 0.8800 then 0.8900 and stop-loss below 0.8620

The pair is trading positively away from 101.35 supporting the upside move in the coming session, targeting 102.70. The pair finds support from positivity on RSI and a breakout of 101.35 then 100.70 will cancel the positive expectations and push the pair to test 100.15.
Support: 101.30, 101.00, 100.70, 100.50, 100.20
Resistance: 101.70, 102.00, 102.30, 102.70, 103.00

Recommendation Based on the above, buy the pair above 101.35 targeting 102.00 then 102.70 and stop-loss below 100.70 

Forex Knowledge 18 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 18 MARCH 2014 currency Report.


EQUITIES
Almost all the global markets are strongly trading in the positive this morning after an encouraging U.S. industrial production data. Not much has changed structure-wise and not really expected until the U.S. FOMC meet concludes tomorrow.
Nikkei (14431.40, +1.08%) has achieved our initial target of 14400 and may fall further to our next target support of 14000. A break below 14000 may accelerate the decline to 13750 and then 13200.
Shanghai (2021.16, -0.12%) broke below the support of 2020-15 to test the January low. The bears dominate firmly as long as it stays below 2040-50 and reversal will come only on a break above 2080. A break below 1980-75 may take it to 1950-45.
Nifty (6504.20, +0.17%) ended its correction at 6433, much higher than 6415 and kept the short term trend bullish. With the low of 4530 holding; we may see Nifty achieving our intermediate target of 6650-6700 this week interrupted by shallow corrections.
Dow (16247.22, +1.13%) held above our support of 15900 for now and may consolidate between 15900 and 16600 for some time before launching the next move. The major uptrend will be threatened only on a break below 15500.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1360.64) fell from 1388 as better than expected US data curbed demand before the FED meeting today. Currently trading just above support near 1357.98, if it falls may test next support near 1350.9-1351 else could bounce back to 1400. Note that it has fallen from the trend resistance and may fall further if that holds.
Silver (21.08) has fallen a s well and is testing support near 20.98. It may consolidate for a few sessions within the 20.75-21.5 regions before deciding further moves.
Copper (2.9770) has bounced from long term support near 2.90 as expected. It may now rise to 3 while above 2.90. A sustained rise above 3 would indicate further upward movement.
Oil markets fall on speculation that the US and European Union sanctions against Russia are unlikely to disrupt the shipments. Nymex WTI (97.34) and Brent (106.35) have fallen sharply as expected. A little more fall towards 97 and WTI may bounce from there to 107.5-108. On the other hand, Brent may also accompany Nymex Crude but with lesser momentum.
CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (79.35) has been trading between our support at 79.10 and resistance of 80. A break above 79.70-80 may bring a trending rally but a break below 79.10 might be decisively bearish in the long term.
The Euro (1.3933) turned rangebound too between 1.3830 and 1.3970. The major support of 1.3830 was not breached but to generate upward momentum, the bulls must take Euro above 1.3980 and 1.4070. Otherwise, more of consolidation can be seen.
Dollar-Yen (101.78) is struggling near the lower end of the broader range of 101-104. The short term direction depends on the support of 101-100.75 now as a break below may take Yen to 99-98.75 but holding above it may continue the range bound price action.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.80) remains in an uptrend without any serious momentum The bullish view to 144-145 survives as long as it holds above the major support area of 139-138 but a break below this support may turn the view bearish and may pull it down to 136-135.50 and even 131.
Pound (1.6638) is in a correction of its major uptrend now in the form of a bullish flag pattern. It may reach 1.69-1.7050 after the current correction finishes. All the dips till 1.6440-30 may be bought into.
Aussie (0.9086) has reached a very important time-price confluence zone and the bulls must break above 0.9150-0.92 by the next week to confirm an intermediate term reversal or else a sharp fall may take it back towards 0.87.
Dollar-Rupee (61.19) faced sharp rejection exactly from our target resistance of 61.55-60. The weekly candle formed by this closing makes the medium term outlook unclear at this moment even if the bias remains moderately bullish.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.68%) is up slightly, ahead of the FOMC Meeting where we may see Janet Yellen holding up Bernanke? policy and continue to taper. The 10-5Yr yield differential (1.09%) has dropped further. We expect the 10yr to maintain a range of 2.65-2.70% for now.
The German 10Yr (1.56%) is trading just above 1.55%. Above 1.55% we may see a rally to 1.65% or else it can target 1.50-1.45%. The Japan 10Yr (0.63%) has remained stab. We see a range of 0.60-0.65% for now before a rise to the channel resistance near 0.69-0.70%.

India's 10Yr GOI (8.79%) has risen above 8.75% and trading almost at our target of 8.80%. We may see a rise to 8.90% and maybe even 9.00% if it manages to stay above 8.80%.


EUR/USD: BUY AT 1.3886 FOR 1.4000 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.3831
USD/JPY: SHORT AT 101.75 FOR 100.76 OBJECTIVE, STOP 102.43
GBP/USD: LONG AT 1.6603 FOR REVISED 1.6787 OBJ, STOP 1.6565

USD/CHF: LOWER SELL AT .8747 FOR .8632 OBJECTIVE, STOP .8807
AUD/USD: LONG AT .9035 FOR .9204; STOP AT .9004
USD/CAD: BUY AT 1.1035 FOR 1.1225 STOP AT 1.0950

Crosses
EUR/JPY: BUY AT 141.35 FOR 143.38 OBJECTIVE, STOP 140.44
EUR/GBP: REVISE BUY AT .8320 FOR .8467; STOP AT .8255
EUR/CHF: SHORT AT 1.2160 FOR 1.2082; STOP AT 1.2195
EUR/CAD: LONG AT 1.5375 FOR 1.5600; REVISED STOP AT 1.5305
GBP/JPY: BUY AT 168.85 FOR 171.60 STOP AT 167.80

NZD/USD: LONG AT .8260 FOR REVISED .8676; REVISE STOP AT .8480

Forex Knowledge 17 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 17 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

EUR/USD: BUY AT 1.3859 FOR 1.4000 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.3831
USD/JPY: BUY 101.10 NOT FILLED, SELL AT 101.75 FOR 100.76, STOP 102.43
GBP/USD: LONG AT 1.6603 FOR 1.6719 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.6565

USD/CHF: SELL AT .8759 FOR .8632 OBJECTIVE, STOP .8807
AUD/USD: LONG AT .9035 FOR .9204; STOP AT .8975
USD/CAD: BUY AT 1.1035 FOR 1.1225 STOP AT 1.0950

Crosses
EUR/JPY: AWAIT TRADE OPPORTUNITY, LOOK TO BUY
EUR/GBP: BUY AT .8310 FOR .8432; STOP AT .8255
EUR/CHF: SHORT AT 1.2160 FOR 1.2082; STOP AT 1.2195
EUR/CAD: POSSIBLE BUY
GBP/JPY: BUY AT 167.75 FOR 172.10 STOP AT 167.05

NZD/USD: LONG AT .8260 FOR REVISED .8643; REVISE STOP AT .8480

Forex Knowledge 11 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 11 MARCH 2014 currency Report.

Almost all of the markets are trading flat after the Bank of Japan meets came to conclusion right now without any changes to monetary policy in accordance with the consensus.
The Nikkei (15231.47, + 0.73%) have found sell special types of 15200-300 range bound as expected and can turn once again to the inside of the 14600 new Houghton,, United Kingdom.
Shanghai (2003.32, + 0.24%) broke below the support of the 2020 15 test January low. It would have been sold at 2015-20 range now, possible bounce where short-term development can be completed. A break below the 1980s having its 1950-45.
6537.25, + 0.16%), Nifty (at a higher level in the group the day after a sharp rally. Bullish momentum is maintained above-6340-60 and we can expect to continue to rally over the next few days, the concentration of the 6650-6700.
The Dow (16418.68,-0.21%), is to strengthen the band 16400-600 and it requires a spot over 16400-600 to rise towards the 17,000 soon.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1339.4) were now and can confirm the 1324-1354 area a few times before heading towards the resistance of the near1360. All in all, the recent uptrend remains intact.
Silver (20.821) fell below support almost 21.78-99 and can test the immediate support to 20.64 20.59 zone. The Gold-Silver ratio (64.3) gathered at the current level of 60.2 levels in the past three weeks and might stop by for some time. To rise over 64.5 signal silver falling prices.
Copper (3.0385) will continue to trade in the low testing long-term support almost 3.00. If so, it may once again on his feet towards a 3.15-3.20. Even though the bears are even, the ascent can be difficult now and the lower rate.
Brent (108.07) and Nymex WTI (99.60) are both trading lower. There is not a large business is waiting for now, but if the bears keep their power, we may see prices continue to slide further in the direction of the will have to wait and see.
THE CURRENCIES OF THE
The dollar index (69.08) is trading below 70 and 69.08 77.57 47.13 door support area or even 78 has opened now. A corrective rally up 80.30 higher-55 may face selling pressure. The long-term trend to get seriously rough below 77.57.
EUR (1.3867) 1.3850-85 is marketing the resistance band and if to dissolve, it can rise above this still 1.3950 1.4050. The 1.4050-1.41 for long-term development becomes strongly bullish. But the Bund-Bond Yield spread is not worth it. So this has to be watched.
Dollar-yen (143.08) has broken above 101-103 of the larger and reached the top before coming off the top 2013 144.76 a bit. To keep up with the trend of more than 80 102.70 but Rising more toward 105, is needed to maintain the 144.76-90.
Euro-yen (143.32) cross broke to 138.80 141.30 143 out of range. The long-term uptrend is resumed and it can rise more 145.50-146 now.
Pound (1.6639) is the repair of a great uptrend now, which can extend 1.6540 1.65 1.66 support only if there is a violation of. It can reach the 1.69-1.7050 while the current correction is complete. 1.6470-80 until the Bills can buy into.
Aussie (0.9035) is testing the 0.9050 support now from 0.89 0.91 upside down after breaking in the region and the possibility of a rally towards the 0.93, or even more. Only a break below 0.90 makes false breakout and void the bullish scenario.
Dollar-rupee (60.85) cannot decrypt more than our original reversal level 61.35 mentioned yesterday and fell to the all important support band 60.80-70. The holding of this zone can produce a bounce in 61-61.15 61.35 is the same but the reversal. A break below the 60.52 pulls it down to 60.50-45 and 26.91 15.
INTEREST RATES
US 10 Yr (2.78%) 2.60 2.80% of the Portfolio grows steadily toward the ceiling. (A) to move past 2.80% to 2.90% yield to go and we'll see in the coming days.
German 10 Yr (1.62 percent) to have been baptized. 10-5 Yr yield spread (0.97%) belong to the (1.01% 20-Feb-14) we see a 10 Yr Bund of Bund 10 Yr yields dipping further.-Bond spreads (-1.13%) remained stable at 2 Yr Bund spread (-0.19%)-Bond also remained stable, and 0.10%.
Japan 10 Yr (0.63%) saw a slight rise ahead of the BOJ meeting today. No changes in the monetary policy statement. The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.15%) remained unchanged.

India's 10 Yr India (8.78%) dipped yesterday. We see the yield ranged between 8.75 8.80% now. Move to this region offers us a new direction.

 EUR/USD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the Euro is remaining very steady just below the resistance level at 1.39 around 1.3870. Current range: just below 1.39 around 1.3870.
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.3700, 1.3500 and 1.3400.Above: 1.3900.

 GBP/USD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the GBP/USD is remaining very steady just below 1.6650 after falling sharply from above 1.67. Current range: Trading just below 1.6650 around 1.6640.
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.6600, 1.6300, and 1.6250Above: 1.6750 and 1.6800.

EURUSD: 1.3900-1.3915 on the upside, 1.36850-1.3700 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.9155-0.9170 on the upside, 0.8935-0.8950 on the downside.
USDJPY: 103.70-103.85 on the upside, 102.45-102.55 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6765-1.6780 on the upside, 1.6540-1.6555 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.1230-1.1245 on the upside, 1.0900-1.0915 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8525-0.8540 on the upside, 0.8405-0.8420 on the downside.
EURJPY: 143.90-144.05 on the upside, 142.30-142.45 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8380-0.8395 on the upside, 0.8215-0.8230 on the downside.
XAUUSD: 1355.00-1365.00 on the upside, 1310.00-1320.00 on the downside.
BRENT: 109.00-110.00 on the upside, 106.00-107.00 on the downside.

SP500: 1900.00-1910.00 on the upside, 1820.00-1830.00 on the downside.