Thursday, 5 June 2014

Forex Knowledge 5 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 5 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


All markets are in quiet mode. The biggest trigger is now a political decision of the ECB of today. Wait until the silence of the meet and an unstable environment.
The Dow (16737.53, + 0.09%) has traded the narrow 80 points in the last three sessions, and can explode soon. Keep an eye on the downside and 16800 16400-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9926.67, + 0.07%) there is a small correction, but the bullish momentum remains unchanged above the 9,800-700 support area and the long-term uptrend appears to be strong enough to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (15077.22, + 0.06%), a struggling area of 15100-150 as expected. A short term fix here would be normal and even healthy for the Bulls. Shanghai (2023.22,-0.08%) has come down in 2060-65, as expected, and the sideways move in 1990 to 2080 can continue a little at the base of the development process.
Nifty (7402.25, 0.18%) used a very flat in the session, but the choice is clear now. Be the bull immediately above that, but remain cautious until 7450 breakout. We look forward to a new record above 7450 to 7500 and fast enough, but below the 7450, tied to the region, the movement can continue.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1243.77) will remain for now at lower levels around 1240. It may be at risk of poverty continue to fall if the ECB cut interest rates, which, in turn, may add to the u.s. dollar. While the above 1240, 1240-1260, may continue to consolidate sideways for the regions, but it can be pushed down to fall below 1230 1240-1225. In the short term looks bearish and the overall downtrend.
Silver (18.80) is trading lower but before the crucial support close to 18.5. You can select either remain within, or 18.5-19 varied from drops still to test levels at 18.5-18: 00. Gold-Silver ratio (66.18) is stable, and is now in the area and can continue as 66.9 65.75 more sessions. In the short term looks bearish.
Copper (3.0910) tumbled heavily in the news that the Chinese authorities are investigating the use of loans, which can damage the metal demand. Is this an indication of future repair? Or it will bounce back to enlarge the 3.10 to preserve the last uptrend? You need to look at a couple of sessions with a confirmation. The note is broken, but the channel support almost 3.10 tests of long-term support to near current levels on a daily basis.
Brent (108.24) is a correction phase now, which can extend to 107.83-107 on the downside if it breaks the 108. After the bounce number 109-110 to take back to the targeting of 112 in the long term. Failure to do so may Ricochet 108-107.33 (if it occurs) to take it down to the level of the 107-106. Note that it is the last of the correction phase ends in the long term, a contraction that began in May2012.
Nymex WTI (102.40) is interrupted by almost 102-103 levels decide on its strengthening. It needs to rise above the rest ranged from 104.5 to 102.95 within 102-103 of may remain in the a couple of the sessions. Support almost 102 still keep the uptrend continues.
FOREX
Almost all the major pairs trade like zombies, Waiting anxiously for the ECB's decision is the stimulus coming or not? Or to facilitate the steps? Today all couples can break sharply as they correspond to the regions. Beware of false breakouts.
EUR (1.3598) precariously is tested to support the region in the last 6-7 1.3590-70 sessions, expect the ECB's next. The Breakout area 1.3570 1.3650 can determine the direction in the short term, although a significant trend.
Dollar-yen (102.56) takes after the break to get to our original goal of 102.75 103.00 and now can not even 50. Euro-yen (139.45) has already pulled out of 140, as expected. The fall would be a break below 139.00 139.30 deeper.
Pound (1.6746) is stuck in a small selection of 1.6690 1.6790 for over a week now. This area can be broken today, and take a dip in the 1.6670-20 cannot be ruled out. But it remains to be seen if the last hope the Bulls 1.66 remains protected or not.
Aussie (0.9277) remains closed 0.92 0.94 territory now no obvious short-term directional pointers. Just break these 0.92 0.94 can produce any meaningful moves. The second test 0.9215 0.92 can mean a corrective mode.
Bullish momentum dollar rupee (59.33) remains unchanged above 59.20 as it gets very close to our target area 59.50-75. 59.10 59.20-17 and still supports-05. The larger repair signaled just below 59.20 hiatus.
INTEREST RATES
The ECB's meeting today. German 10 Yr (1.43%) is to see a little bit of rise from the level of near the middle of may (1.33%), presumably a bit of position squaring ahead of the ECB's decisions. But the rest of the yield curve suggests a less pronounced going forward. Toni E-4 and E-7-10 yr yield has risen a little more than a composite of a couple of weeks, but the general trend is still downward. It said Spain-German 10 Yr spread (1.44 percent) to test the long-term trendline support levels 0% since 2007, which can easily break coming up.
All in all, it is difficult to assess the impact of the ECB's activities in the market today.
Remarkably, the U.S. produces all bounced sharply this week after it broke the crucial support level last week, and have for a while. 5-v (1.63%) is seen as particularly steep climb. But is the current bounce as invalid as a break below the support last week? Or the hundreds continue to rise? You need to look at for a few days.

In India, 10 Yr India (8.59%) is oriented less now. Cut out the SLR is seen as potentially a big deal. Technically, now 10 Yr may trend lower in the coming weeks. This is a big change from the previous expectations (including ours), higher return on investment. India and the United States for 10 Yr spread (6.02%) can also be another 25bp. could attract good FII.







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