Forex Knowledge 30 MAY 2014 currency Report.
The u.s. GDP contracted a worse than expected, but still the most glass of the US market rose as the drop was due to lower inventory, which is not meant to last, and many of the houses have increased their growth forecasts for the second quarter. Asia-Pac is still trading quiet.
Dow 16698.74, + 0.39%) change (as it keeps producing fewer and fewer moves in the range of the contracting authority or those of the more upper & lows coming. Keep an eye on the downside and 16800 16400-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9938.90, 0.00%) has been steadily gaining a narrow 50 point area near the small resistance 9985-10050 but a significant uptrend appears to be strong enough to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (14645.72,-0.25%) after a steep rally mode has a sideways 14,000 14700 and can rally the 15200-300 or even higher, at the end of the repair. Shanghai (2033.19,-0.36%) faced great selling pressure near the 2060-2080-1990 of 65 as expected, but the broader the sideways move may continue for some time a base-building process.
Nifty (7235.65-94.00) Finally, the bearishness of the fixed by closing under 7275-70 and opened the door towards 7130 or even lower. All demonstrations are expected to be sold at a higher level, up to 7,300. Keep an eye on the 7200-7190 and 7080 in large supports.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1257.587) is stable now that the downtrend and below 1261.10, it remains, perhaps, towards 1225 in the coming weeks. The testing of short term support almost 1257-1260, the potential loss is greater.
Copper (3.1450) saw a little bit of a correction in the short term uptrend and may continue to 3.20-3, 25 in the next few weeks.
Silver (19.01) is a stable of trade above the support of the region of 18.5 19.0. Some of the sessions can continue in the frequency range below the sideways, 19.6.
Brent (110.05) has returns to 109.5 as it should be and they can target 110.58 again in the next few weeks. The above 110.58 111,05 may take more towards an earlier turnover of 112.
Nymex WTI (103.37) has bounced up a little targeting of previous 104.5 If breaks can take toward 105 105.22. All in all, the future is bullish.
FOREX
Dollar strength against most of the majors, with the exception of the intact to the yen and the Aussie. But many of the currencies are close to major support area. Keep a watch on.
The strength of the characters is not yet reflected in euros (1.3605) as tests trendline support 1.3590-80 and trying to recover from 1.3700-30. But weakness remains intact beneath the 1.3800 and any bounce is supposed to encounter selling pressure at higher levels.
Dollar-yen (101.54) must reach the above 102.15 103.00 102.75 rise higher and higher toward the next resistance. Within this broad range of 103.00 100.50 immediately the possibility of crashing a rising survives the 101.20. Euro-yen (138.16) tested the last swing low near the 138 (also the 200 DMA at 138.30) all attempts to break the more than 140 is not far, and displays all the drops 136-135 in the next few sessions.
The weakness and the rising pace of pound (1.6733) is pronounced, and now the dip 1.6670-20 can ? is excluded. But it remains to be seen if the last hope the Bulls 1.66 remains protected or not.
Aussie (0.9313) seems ready to test major resistance area 0.9400-50, but the above 0.94 can help get past the whole supply chain zone and push it towards the 0.96 0.97. The failure of the second small drop would mean close to 0.94 and more of a sideways move to 0.92 0.94 in the area.
Dollar-rupee (59.03) has recovered from two days of testing in support of what the price action in the repair of 58.75 only and has made it easier to keep your stoploss to less than nothing self. 58.75 Strength to be confirmed a break above 59.50 59.20 and-75 then.
INTEREST RATES
U.s. yields yesterday, but saw a slight 5 Yr 1.53%, 10 v (2.46%) and a 30 Yr (3.33%) are still trading for less than 1.55%, at 2.50% and 3.35% a crucial area, respectively. If we are not clear on the break before these levels we may see a flattening yield curve, we believe that the rise in yields in the blank in the coming months. Coming up is to show the week economy worse than expected GDP and output declined until there is economic improvement.
German 10 Yr (1.36%), Spanish 10 Yr (2.86%), France (1.74%) and Italian 10 Yr 10 Yr (2.96%) also saw a slight increase. ECB ready to cut rates we may see the return to trading up to these levels. Germany and the United States, the 2 Yr yield spread (0.32%) remained unchanged at the current level of the Euro testing support (1.3605) remains almost yesterday's levels. Bounce the spread at these levels and it can go-0.25% and take the Euro higher.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield spread (1.89%) is slightly but you can test the 1.80% before we see a bounce. Japan 10 Yr (0.57%) is also a bit but still trading under the long-term resistance close to 0.60%. 10-5 Yr yield differential (0.39%) down and you can test the long-term support of almost 0.375% before the bounce.
India and the United States 10-Yr yield spread (6.25%) rose to test the resistance of around 6.25%, as expected, and now fall back to 6.15% if the resistance to keep or else we'll see 6.35% 10 Yr India (8.67%), on the other hand, declined slightly, but still target the 200 day MA, close to 8.80%.
The u.s. GDP contracted a worse than expected, but still the most glass of the US market rose as the drop was due to lower inventory, which is not meant to last, and many of the houses have increased their growth forecasts for the second quarter. Asia-Pac is still trading quiet.
Dow 16698.74, + 0.39%) change (as it keeps producing fewer and fewer moves in the range of the contracting authority or those of the more upper & lows coming. Keep an eye on the downside and 16800 16400-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9938.90, 0.00%) has been steadily gaining a narrow 50 point area near the small resistance 9985-10050 but a significant uptrend appears to be strong enough to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (14645.72,-0.25%) after a steep rally mode has a sideways 14,000 14700 and can rally the 15200-300 or even higher, at the end of the repair. Shanghai (2033.19,-0.36%) faced great selling pressure near the 2060-2080-1990 of 65 as expected, but the broader the sideways move may continue for some time a base-building process.
Nifty (7235.65-94.00) Finally, the bearishness of the fixed by closing under 7275-70 and opened the door towards 7130 or even lower. All demonstrations are expected to be sold at a higher level, up to 7,300. Keep an eye on the 7200-7190 and 7080 in large supports.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1257.587) is stable now that the downtrend and below 1261.10, it remains, perhaps, towards 1225 in the coming weeks. The testing of short term support almost 1257-1260, the potential loss is greater.
Copper (3.1450) saw a little bit of a correction in the short term uptrend and may continue to 3.20-3, 25 in the next few weeks.
Silver (19.01) is a stable of trade above the support of the region of 18.5 19.0. Some of the sessions can continue in the frequency range below the sideways, 19.6.
Brent (110.05) has returns to 109.5 as it should be and they can target 110.58 again in the next few weeks. The above 110.58 111,05 may take more towards an earlier turnover of 112.
Nymex WTI (103.37) has bounced up a little targeting of previous 104.5 If breaks can take toward 105 105.22. All in all, the future is bullish.
FOREX
Dollar strength against most of the majors, with the exception of the intact to the yen and the Aussie. But many of the currencies are close to major support area. Keep a watch on.
The strength of the characters is not yet reflected in euros (1.3605) as tests trendline support 1.3590-80 and trying to recover from 1.3700-30. But weakness remains intact beneath the 1.3800 and any bounce is supposed to encounter selling pressure at higher levels.
Dollar-yen (101.54) must reach the above 102.15 103.00 102.75 rise higher and higher toward the next resistance. Within this broad range of 103.00 100.50 immediately the possibility of crashing a rising survives the 101.20. Euro-yen (138.16) tested the last swing low near the 138 (also the 200 DMA at 138.30) all attempts to break the more than 140 is not far, and displays all the drops 136-135 in the next few sessions.
The weakness and the rising pace of pound (1.6733) is pronounced, and now the dip 1.6670-20 can ? is excluded. But it remains to be seen if the last hope the Bulls 1.66 remains protected or not.
Aussie (0.9313) seems ready to test major resistance area 0.9400-50, but the above 0.94 can help get past the whole supply chain zone and push it towards the 0.96 0.97. The failure of the second small drop would mean close to 0.94 and more of a sideways move to 0.92 0.94 in the area.
Dollar-rupee (59.03) has recovered from two days of testing in support of what the price action in the repair of 58.75 only and has made it easier to keep your stoploss to less than nothing self. 58.75 Strength to be confirmed a break above 59.50 59.20 and-75 then.
INTEREST RATES
U.s. yields yesterday, but saw a slight 5 Yr 1.53%, 10 v (2.46%) and a 30 Yr (3.33%) are still trading for less than 1.55%, at 2.50% and 3.35% a crucial area, respectively. If we are not clear on the break before these levels we may see a flattening yield curve, we believe that the rise in yields in the blank in the coming months. Coming up is to show the week economy worse than expected GDP and output declined until there is economic improvement.
German 10 Yr (1.36%), Spanish 10 Yr (2.86%), France (1.74%) and Italian 10 Yr 10 Yr (2.96%) also saw a slight increase. ECB ready to cut rates we may see the return to trading up to these levels. Germany and the United States, the 2 Yr yield spread (0.32%) remained unchanged at the current level of the Euro testing support (1.3605) remains almost yesterday's levels. Bounce the spread at these levels and it can go-0.25% and take the Euro higher.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield spread (1.89%) is slightly but you can test the 1.80% before we see a bounce. Japan 10 Yr (0.57%) is also a bit but still trading under the long-term resistance close to 0.60%. 10-5 Yr yield differential (0.39%) down and you can test the long-term support of almost 0.375% before the bounce.
India and the United States 10-Yr yield spread (6.25%) rose to test the resistance of around 6.25%, as expected, and now fall back to 6.15% if the resistance to keep or else we'll see 6.35% 10 Yr India (8.67%), on the other hand, declined slightly, but still target the 200 day MA, close to 8.80%.
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