Forex Knowledge 30 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 30 MAY 2014 currency Report.


The u.s. GDP contracted a worse than expected, but still the most glass of the US market rose as the drop was due to lower inventory, which is not meant to last, and many of the houses have increased their growth forecasts for the second quarter. Asia-Pac is still trading quiet.
Dow 16698.74, + 0.39%) change (as it keeps producing fewer and fewer moves in the range of the contracting authority or those of the more upper & lows coming. Keep an eye on the downside and 16800 16400-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9938.90, 0.00%) has been steadily gaining a narrow 50 point area near the small resistance 9985-10050 but a significant uptrend appears to be strong enough to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (14645.72,-0.25%) after a steep rally mode has a sideways 14,000 14700 and can rally the 15200-300 or even higher, at the end of the repair. Shanghai (2033.19,-0.36%) faced great selling pressure near the 2060-2080-1990 of 65 as expected, but the broader the sideways move may continue for some time a base-building process.
Nifty (7235.65-94.00) Finally, the bearishness of the fixed by closing under 7275-70 and opened the door towards 7130 or even lower. All demonstrations are expected to be sold at a higher level, up to 7,300. Keep an eye on the 7200-7190 and 7080 in large supports.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1257.587) is stable now that the downtrend and below 1261.10, it remains, perhaps, towards 1225 in the coming weeks. The testing of short term support almost 1257-1260, the potential loss is greater.
Copper (3.1450) saw a little bit of a correction in the short term uptrend and may continue to 3.20-3, 25 in the next few weeks.
Silver (19.01) is a stable of trade above the support of the region of 18.5 19.0. Some of the sessions can continue in the frequency range below the sideways, 19.6.
Brent (110.05) has returns to 109.5 as it should be and they can target 110.58 again in the next few weeks. The above 110.58 111,05 may take more towards an earlier turnover of 112.
Nymex WTI (103.37) has bounced up a little targeting of previous 104.5 If breaks can take toward 105 105.22. All in all, the future is bullish.
FOREX
Dollar strength against most of the majors, with the exception of the intact to the yen and the Aussie. But many of the currencies are close to major support area. Keep a watch on.
The strength of the characters is not yet reflected in euros (1.3605) as tests trendline support 1.3590-80 and trying to recover from 1.3700-30. But weakness remains intact beneath the 1.3800 and any bounce is supposed to encounter selling pressure at higher levels.
Dollar-yen (101.54) must reach the above 102.15 103.00 102.75 rise higher and higher toward the next resistance. Within this broad range of 103.00 100.50 immediately the possibility of crashing a rising survives the 101.20. Euro-yen (138.16) tested the last swing low near the 138 (also the 200 DMA at 138.30) all attempts to break the more than 140 is not far, and displays all the drops 136-135 in the next few sessions.
The weakness and the rising pace of pound (1.6733) is pronounced, and now the dip 1.6670-20 can ? is excluded. But it remains to be seen if the last hope the Bulls 1.66 remains protected or not.
Aussie (0.9313) seems ready to test major resistance area 0.9400-50, but the above 0.94 can help get past the whole supply chain zone and push it towards the 0.96 0.97. The failure of the second small drop would mean close to 0.94 and more of a sideways move to 0.92 0.94 in the area.
Dollar-rupee (59.03) has recovered from two days of testing in support of what the price action in the repair of 58.75 only and has made it easier to keep your stoploss to less than nothing self. 58.75 Strength to be confirmed a break above 59.50 59.20 and-75 then.
INTEREST RATES
U.s. yields yesterday, but saw a slight 5 Yr 1.53%, 10 v (2.46%) and a 30 Yr (3.33%) are still trading for less than 1.55%, at 2.50% and 3.35% a crucial area, respectively. If we are not clear on the break before these levels we may see a flattening yield curve, we believe that the rise in yields in the blank in the coming months. Coming up is to show the week economy worse than expected GDP and output declined until there is economic improvement.
German 10 Yr (1.36%), Spanish 10 Yr (2.86%), France (1.74%) and Italian 10 Yr 10 Yr (2.96%) also saw a slight increase. ECB ready to cut rates we may see the return to trading up to these levels. Germany and the United States, the 2 Yr yield spread (0.32%) remained unchanged at the current level of the Euro testing support (1.3605) remains almost yesterday's levels. Bounce the spread at these levels and it can go-0.25% and take the Euro higher.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield spread (1.89%) is slightly but you can test the 1.80% before we see a bounce. Japan 10 Yr (0.57%) is also a bit but still trading under the long-term resistance close to 0.60%. 10-5 Yr yield differential (0.39%) down and you can test the long-term support of almost 0.375% before the bounce.

India and the United States 10-Yr yield spread (6.25%) rose to test the resistance of around 6.25%, as expected, and now fall back to 6.15% if the resistance to keep or else we'll see 6.35% 10 Yr India (8.67%), on the other hand, declined slightly, but still target the 200 day MA, close to 8.80%.

Forex Knowledge 29 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 29 MAY 2014 currency Report.


Nearly all the markets are trading very quietly ahead of the US GDP data and even a worse than expected drop in Japanese retail sales didn't produce any significant ripple. The Indian F&O Expiry may produce some sharp moves.
The contracting range visible in Dow (16633.18, -0.25%) is producing ever smaller moves regarding both rallies and drops even with the higher highs & lows coming up. Keep an eye on 16400 on the downside and 16800-900 on the upside for an explosive breakout beyond this contracting range. The Dax (9939.17, -0.02%) has run closer to a minor resistance at 9985-10050 but the major uptrend looks strong enough to push it up to 10300-400.
The Nikkei (14649.27, -0.15%) may rally towards 15200-300 or even higher now and any correction should be limited to 14300-250. The Shanghai (2049.64, -0.03%) has been trading in1990-2080 for the last 1 month and now it is close to the upper end at 2060-65 where some selling can be expected again. The sideways move in the broader range of 1990-2080 may continue for some more time in a base-building process.
The speculation over the next step RBI is going to take has reached a feverish level but Nifty (7329.65, +11.65) is contained in a contracting range for the last two days. The multiple retesting of 7275-70 makes that an important support but this correction may reach 7130 or even lower. Keep an eye on 7200-7190 and 7080 for major supports.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1257.126) has initiated a sharp fall which may target 1225 in the coming sessions. Though it is testing a near-term support near 1257-1260, chances of breaking below is higher. However, if it bounces back from current levels it may target 1280 before again resuming the fall. Overall our longer term bearish view holds.
Copper (3.1625) is stable for now but is eventually targeting 3.20-3.25 in the near term. Copper Gold ratio (0.161) has been rising since March?14 (0.14) and is targeting higher levels for now, indicating strength in equities. Overall near term is bullish for Copper.
Silver (19.046) is stable while above 19. Sideways consolidation may continue within 19-19.66 region. Unless a break on either side of this range, further direction cannot be determined. Gold-Silver ratio (66.003) has fallen as expected and may target 65.50 in the coming sessions. Near term is bearish.
Brent (109.90) has entered into a correction mode while in an uptrend, as the resistance near 111.04 holds well. The fall may push it to support near 109.5-109-108.94 from where we may expect a bounce back towards 110 levels.
Nymex WTI (102.96) has fallen sharply from resistance near 104.45-104.50 and is testing levels of 102.94 now. It may fall further towards 102.30-101.60 in the coming sessions if it breaks below 102.94.
FOREX
The feeble attempts by the major pairs to appreciate are over and Dollar is strengthening against almost all the currencies. But quite a few of the currencies are close to their major support zones. Keep watch.
The Euro (1.3605) is testing the trendline support at 1.3590-80 and may try to bounce back to 1.3700-30. But the weakness remains intact below 1.3800 and any bounce is expected to face selling pressure at the higher levels.
Dollar-Yen (101.68) has been pushed down exactly from our resistance at 102.00-15 but a break above this resistance is required to take it to the higher resistance at 102.75-103.00.The Euro-Yen (138.35) is also testing the last swing low near 138 (also 200 DMA at 138.30) as all attempts to break above 140 have failed so far and looks all set for a fall to 136-135 in the next few sessions.
The uptrend in Pound (1.6723) has been neutralized with this break of 1.6730 and now a dip to 1.6670-20 can't be ruled out. Now it remains to be seen if the last hope for the bulls at 1.66 remains protected or not.
The Aussie (0.9274) tested the support area at 0.9200-0.9180 once again before bouncing sharply. But we still wait for a break beyond the broader range of 0.92-0.94 which may produce the next major directional move.
Dollar-Rupee (58.93) faced rejection from exactly our resistance at 59.20 and that 59.20 becomes the breakout point for the next rally. It could be too early to conclude that the rally is finished at 59.20. It may well be a normal correction after 3-4 days of rise and there is a probability of the strength returning from 58.75-65. Only a break below 58.65 would be a matter for concern for the Dollar bulls.
INTEREST RATES
There has been fall in yields globally.
The US 5Yr (1.50%) and the 10Yr (2.44%) came off from the crucial levels of 1.55% and 2.55% respectively and the 30Yr (3.29%) broke below the support near 3.34%. The fall in the yields indicates a weak growth outlook. The GDP data today will be watched. With the yields breaking below the important supports we can now expect them to trade even lower. The yield differentials have also seen a fall and the 10-5Yr (0.94%) has fallen below the support near 0.95% indicating a flatter yield curve.
The German 10Yr (1.34%), the Spanish 10Yr (2.82%), France 10Yr (1.73%) and the Italian 10Yr (2.93%) have fallen further in anticipation of a rate cut in next week? ECB Meeting. The German-US 2Yr yield spread (-0.32%) has fallen and is testing support at current levels in line with the Euro (1.3608) which continues to trade lower. A bounce in the spread from these levels and it can go up to -0.25% and can take the Euro higher.
The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (1.87%) has fallen further and may test 1.80%if the fall continues. The Japan 10Yr (0.56%) came off from the long term resistance near 0.60%. The 10-5Yr yield differential (0.38%) has come to test a long term support near 0.375% and we may see a bounce from here.

The Indo-US 10Yr yield spread (6.20%) saw a rise on the back of the falling US yields and may test the resistance near 6.25%. The 10Yr GOI (8.70%) saw a rise, unaffected by the global fall in the yields and may target the 200 Day MA near 8.80%.

Forex Knowledge 28 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 28 MAY 2014 currency Report.



The Dow is a contraction (16675.50, + 0.42%) than in the rallies and declines are shrinking even more upper & lows coming. Keep an eye on the downside and 16,300 16800-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9940.82, + 0.49%) has to run closer to the low resistance of the 9985-10050 but strong enough uptrend seems to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (14642.12, 0.04%) can rally the 15200-300 or even higher now and corrections should be limited to 14300-250. Shanghai (2035.58, + 0.05%) struggling near the 2040-50 resistance band repeatedly without a lot of momentum. 1990-2080 broader sideways move may continue for some time a base-building process. Supports are 2010-1990.
Nifty corrective mode (7318,-0.56%) has a well established the possibility of wider consolidation 6900-7500 to achieve ever greater inroads. Several of the starting material 7275-70 makes it important to support but this repair may get 7130 or even lower. Keep an eye on the 7200-7190 and 7080 in large supports.
COMMODITIES
Strong u.s. and Asian shares sharply lower on the bearish for precious metals in accordance with the vision to push the The oil market appears to be in the last race in the last rally in the near term correction and expct even though copper is still upward movement.
Gold (1264.68) tumbled heavily in 1261, yesterday, (which are less than the expected level of 1280) better-than-expected u.s. data that can support the FederalReserve continue to rein in the stimulus. It will test the crucial support near 1260 if you keep bringing it back to 1280-1294 else it may face danger of 1230-1225. All in all, we believe it will continue to fall in the near future.
Copper (3.1700) is on the rise, targeting the resistance area 3.20-3, 25 in the near future. The uptrend because
Mar14 is valid. Quite likely, the copper-gold-ratio and may indicate increased bullishness in the shares.
Silver (19.125) fell sharply but remains from 19: 00 to 19.66. It can stay within these levels ranged from in the near future unless the above 19.66 is seen. The short-term downtrend is in force. Gold-Silver ratio (66.079) is more likely to decline targeting 65.5 in the near future.
Brent (110.31) and Nymex WTI (104.15) are stable now, trading at 110-111 and 103.5 104.5 areas but with a little bit of the rise was visible was-112 and 105-105.22 respectively before the downward correction. Overall, the trend is still up.
FOREX
After a few sessions a strong dollar currencies to try to appreciate a little against the dollar, but no success yet. Big pairs is, indeed, makes it difficult for the dollar to rise much more.
EUR (1.3637) will seek to buy near a trendline support 1.3590-80 and this company, if successful, could take the Euro higher 1.3700-30. But weakness remains intact beneath the 1.3800 and any bounce is supposed to encounter selling pressure at higher levels.
Dollar-yen (101.93) is facing selling pressure is precisely our resistance to 102.00-15, but a break above resistance is required to take its major projects in the area of 102.75 103.00-The Euro-yen (138.99) is a sideways step 138.50 139.50 after bouncing the important support 138.70-30 but if the resistance is 140 is out, there could be opportunities to test the 200-day MA 137.94 per 136 or even lower.
The pound suffered from a sharp correction (1.6812) has, in recent times, but the uptrend remains intact, the objectives of the 1.70 break below the uptrend 1.6730 may itself and then take a dip in the sub-1, 6600 level would be in the cards. Watch the 1.6900-20 power above.
Aussie (0.9261) tends to stay above the great support in the region after a dramatic drop in 0.9200-0.9180, but the current structure is still weak. After the break, 0.92 0.94 wider can yield significant direction to the next.
The dollar-rupee (59.04) closes more than 59 strength but above 59.20-30 still needed in higher elevations. Some of the tools, refer to the area around 59.15 possible termination point at this rally, but we would like to keep the formations we target 59.50 60.00-10-65 and a break above 59.30 self. Support comes from 58.62-55.
INTEREST RATES
US yields are trading lower. 5 v (1.53%) and 10 v (2.51%) comes off a little more crucial levels of 1.55% 2.55%, respectively. We are waiting for clear yet the breakout on either side, so that we can get a clearer picture. 30 Yr (3.35%) has become a test of support almost 3.34% bounce from there, take it back to 3.50%. Yield differences include (see http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usddiff.shtml#sindiff) in the US, the yield curve is likely to Flatten if yields don ? bounce.
Revenue in Europe have also seen the memo. German 10 Yr (1.38%) have to come down again to 1.37% at levels close to 1.45% of our goal. Spanish 10 Yr, 10 Yr (2.89%), France (1.79%) and Italian 10 Yr (3.00%) are all down. All eyes are on next week's ECB meeting, where it is expected that the Central Bank would cut interest rates to combat the low inflation levels.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield spread (1.92%) dropped back on the US harvest, breaking the week under 55 MA, as the dollar-yen (101.93) remained stable. Japan 10 Yr (0.59%) is also stable and development between 0.55%-0.60%.

India and the United States 10-Yr yield spread (6.14%) remained stable at 6.10% bounce in support after a near 10 Yr India (8.68%) remained unchanged at 8.75% and target if you can grow even in otherwise 8.50-8.55% open.

Forex Knowledge 27 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 27 MAY 2014 currency Report.



The u.s. market closed yesterday, and in the home country, the Ministers vowed to Modi, no news or an event to move the market, and we see the quiet day today.
The Dow is a contraction (16606.27, + 0.38%) than in the rallies and declines are shrinking even more upper & lows coming. Keep an eye on the downside and 16,300 16800-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9892.82, + 1.28%) chart shows the price of a similar contraction too price coming off 9900 volatility. In any case, a clean break above its all-time record, taking the 9800 10300-400 now.
The Nikkei (14706.95, + 0.72%) has broken down before the launch in a short period of time reversal and 16650 rally 15200-300 or even higher. Shanghai (2040.70, 0.04%) Test the 2040-50 resistance band repeatedly without much momentum. 1990-2080 broader sideways move may continue for some time a base-building process. Supports are 2010-1990.
With the huge volatility yesterday on the nifty 7359.05, corrective mode (-0.11%) has a well established the possibility of wider consolidation 6900-7500 to achieve ever greater inroads. Most bullish option would have the opportunity to correct the above repair but the ends of the starting material 7235 7130 is looking a lot more right now. Keep an eye on the 7200-7190 and 7080 in large supports.
COMMODITIES
Precious metals are stable, copper, Brent and WTI are potentially strong before the u.s. data today.
Gold (1291.61), remains stable at 1280-1304 within regions. If we do not break between both sides still can not determine the direction. Silver (19.391) is also stable but will test the important long-term support almost at the line on the chart. This can lead to 19.66 again but if the above is allowed to remain in the region, it is seen in 19.66 bound.
Copper (3.1795) maintains the rise of targeting the resistance area 3.20-3.23-3, with 25 for the upcoming sessions. The growth of the Chinese economy, management of the ways of metal by adding the prices in the short term. We may see a small correction to 3.23 per 25-3, 3.15 before continuing to rise. All in all, the metal is on the uptrend.
Brent (110.58) is trading near the decisive resistance to 110.58 weekly line charts and when the magnitude of the movement which holds we'll see below, 110.5. Also has a fair chance to fall toward 110-109 before continuing to rise to 112. However, the above 110.58 would take more toward the 112.
Nymex WTI (104.38) is the goal of the resistance of the rally in the coming weeks, 105-103 may Disconnect if you keep 105.22-102 level. However, if it violates the above 105.25 it can rise closer to 107. A double bottom formation in graphs, which may refer to a near term bullishness.
FOREX
After a few sessions a strong dollar currencies to try to appreciate a little against the dollar, but no success yet. Big pairs is, indeed, makes it difficult for the dollar to rise much more.
EUR (1.3662) creates a corresponding Low 1.3613, near a trendline support 1.3590-80 and this bounce may take a drive up the euro 1.3700-30. But weakness remains intact beneath the 1.3800 and any bounce is supposed to encounter selling pressure.
Dollar-yen (101.97) is testing the resistance area above the 102.00-102 and 15 may take it in the project zone 102.75 103.00. The Euro-yen (139.29), rises to the important support of about 30, but if the resistance is 138.70 140 is out, there could be opportunities fell to test the 200-day MA 137.94 or even lower towards the 136.
The pound suffered from a sharp correction (1.6864) has, in recent times, but the uptrend remains intact, the objectives of the 1.70 break below the uptrend 1.6730 may itself and then take a dip in the sub-1, 6600 level would be in the cards. Watch the 1.6900-20 power above.
Aussie (0.9256) tends to stay above the great support in the region after a dramatic drop in 0.9200-0.9180, but the current structure is still weak. Are the bulls thought the large Cup & handle breakout in the near future?
Dollar-rupee (58.71) made a higher high 58.86 activation buy signal with stoploss below 58.33. While still above the old resistance area at 58.90 59.20 30-59, 00 and would make us much more confident in our long. Support comes from 58.62-55.
INTEREST RATES
US yields are testing the crucial 1.55% 5 v (1.54%) and 2.55% 10 Yr (2.55%). A clear distinction between these levels are the direction we give us direction. 30 Yr (3.40%) remained unchanged and may test support near 3.38%.
German 2 Yr spread (-0.29%) has declined at the same time, the 10 Yr spread (-1.13%) is up, breaking above resistance near-1.15% in EUR (1.3662) reverts a bit of support on a weekly basis line graphs. German 10 Yr (1.42%) was unchanged compared with the rise of 1.37% and trading near 1.45% of our goal.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield spread (1.96%) is stable, as the dollar-yen (101.97) also remains almost yesterday's levels. Yield spread is testing support at the current level of 55 week MA and perform this up. Japan 10 Yr (0.59%) is also stable and development between 0.55%-0.60%.

India and the United States 10-Yr yield spread (6.15%) has bounced almost to 6.10% support as expected. 10 Yr India (8.68%) is 8.75% of the yield spread and target a bounce If the rise continues, otherwise the risk is an 8.50-8.55%, remains open.


EURUSD: 1.3715 -1.3730 on the upside, 1.3580-1.3595 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.9295-0.9310 on the upside, 0.9190-0.9205 on the downside.
USDJPY: 102.50-102.65 on the upside, 100.65-100.80 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.6920-1.6935 on the upside, 1.6760-1.6775 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.0970-1.0985 on the upside, 1.0785-1.0800 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8605-0.8620 on the upside, 0.8475 – 0.8490 on the downside.
EURJPY: 139.55-139.70 on the upside, 138.00-138.15 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8145-0.8160 on the upside, 0.8010-0.8025 on the downside.
XAUUSD: 1305.00-1315.00 on the upside, 1275.00-1285.00 on the downside.
BRENT: 111.50-112.50 on the upside, 108.00-109.00 on the downside.

SP500: 1915.00-1925.00 on the upside, 1840.00-1850.00 on the downside.

Forex Knowledge 26 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 26 MAY 2014 currency Report.



Asia-Pac mood this morning is very positive after coming to the U.S. home purchases, but the price action can be slow today because u.s. markets are closed today for the memorial day.
The Dow is a contraction (16606.27, + 0.38%) than in the rallies and declines are shrinking even more upper & lows coming. Keep an eye on the downside and 16,300 16800-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9768.01, + 0.48%) chart shows the price of a similar contraction too with the borders becoming 9600 and 9900. It is close to the all time high of 9,800 levels, so expect some good moves.
The Nikkei (14565.06, + 0.71%) at 4-week high and now the above in a short period of time can trigger a reversal of 16650 and rally 15200-300 or even higher. Shanghai (2038.18, + 0.18%) testing the resistance of the band for the second time in the 2040-50 for so many days without a lot of momentum. 1990-2080 broader sideways move may continue for some time a base-building process. Supports are 2010-1990.
The SBI credit losses decline moved to good day 7367.10, + 1.25%), Nifty (better day than the position of the SBI rallied by more than 10% today. The rally still looks more like a repair than cutting with shallow pullbacks upmove 7130 fresh deeper into the strong rise is justified. Keep an eye on the price action near the 7400-15 decide to switch to the real trend emerge.
COMMODITIES
Copper and crude oils and fats appear to be strong even though gold and silver will remain stable.
Gold (1293.62) is stable, and has ranged from 1284-1297 region in the last session. If the magnitude of the movement breakabove 130-1303, can still keep 1284 on the downside. Not a big business now expects.
Silver (19.457) is also stable and can stand up to 19.66 a few times. The Gold-Silver ratio (66.46) seems to be bearish in the near future, 66-65, snapping a sharp decline or range-bound to move in the near future.
Copper (3.1845) has risen sharply on Friday and may target the channel resistance near 3.20-3.23, where you can see a little correction to 3.15. In the short term, seems to be rising.
Brent (110.030) has become when testing resistance close to 110.58 and, at the same time, which keeps it can calculate a little bit towards the 109 110.58 before testing again. But all in all it is a uptrend.
Nymex WTI (104.09) is still in its rally targeting the resistance near the 105-105.22 where it can is out of the shsrply 103-102. It is also possible to 102.94 to fall before you continue with the rise of 105.22.
FOREX
Although not as successful as the rupee or the actual EM currencies, the dollar strengthened against nearly all major currencies for now.
EUR (1.3619) keep belonging to get closer to the trendline support 1.3590-80, below which does not support cannot support the bulls ahead of 1.3400 1.3470 level. The weakness remains intact beneath the 1.3800 and any bounce is expected to face selling pressure.
Dollar-yen (101.95) testing resistance area above the 102.00-15-102 and take it for a major project in the area of 102.75 103.00.
Euro-yen (138.85) is testing important to support approximately 138.70-30 and tried a little bit of bounce. But if the resistance is 140 is out, there could be opportunities fell to test the 200-day MA 137.94 or even lower towards the 136.
The pound suffered from a sharp correction (1.6833) is getting closer to the area of significant support from 1.6730-20. Still, the uptrend remains intact, the objectives of the 1.70 break below the uptrend 1.6730 may itself and then take a dip in the sub-1, 6600 level would be in the cards.
Aussie (0.9235) tends to stay above the great support in the region after a dramatic drop in 0.9200-0.9150. But the current structure of the hinting more downmove towards 0.8950 break below 0.9150.
Dollar-rupee (58.52) hit a new low, as expected, and now closing at 58.33 58.52 founded bullish setup, which is activated only during the break below 58.86. Please note that we are coming closer to a bottom soon, however, none of the reinforcement of the movement is visible yet. 58.10 57.90 58.30, or begin to be bottoming out.
INTEREST RATES
The u.s. saw the decline in yields on Friday. 10 v (2.53%) has come down to test the critical level of 2.53% 5 v (1.53%) to loose a little bit of resistance in the area near the 1.55%. 30 Yr (3.40%) to test the support almost 3.38%. A clear distinction between the levels of 1.55% on both sides of a crucial 2.55% 10 v and 5 v offers us a new direction.
German 2 Yr spread (-0.26%) remained stable, while the Euro should continue to test (1.3619) support at current levels (weekly, line graphs). German 10 Yr (1.42%) saw the rise of 1.37% and 1.45% is close to the goal.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield difference (1.95%) saw a slight dip in and test the support at the current level of 55 week MA and can continue to grow up as the dollar-yen (101.95) the number continues to grow. Japan 10 Yr (0.59%) is a little bit of resistance near the $ 0.60%. We look forward to keeping between 0.55%-0.60%.

10 Yr India (8.63%) have decreased even further and India and the United States for 10 Yr yield spread (6.10%) has become a test of support at the current level and we expect a bounce from there. If the bounce seen in these levels of risk is 8.50-8.55% of India remains open.

Forex Knowledge 12 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 12 MAY 2014 currency Report.


EQUITIES
The Dow (16583.34) and Dax (9581.45) maintained overall strength on Friday and continue to look consolidative within an overall long-term uptrend. Within that, Resistances are seen in both just a little above current levels.
As mentioned on Friday, the Oriental Indices are relatively far weaker than the Western Indices. The Nikkei (14178, -0.15%) is condoliative/ weak with some chances of dip towards 13900 this week. However, the Shanghai (2047, +1.81%) has seen a good rise from Support at 2000 and may try to rise further towards 2075-2100.
The Nifty (6858.80) had seen a solid rise on Friday but could see some profit-taking at 6910 today ahead of the opinion/exit poll results that will start coming out from the evening today.
COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver are bearish while Crude and Copper are likely to trade higher.
Gold (1286.736) has bounced a little from just above support near 1280. It is now ranged within 1280-1315 regions and may continue so for some more sessions unless we see a break above 1320. Overall near term looks bearish.
Silver (19.147) is trading just near crucial near-term Support 19.00. A bounce from here may target 20.2-20.5 levels from where it may come off to 19 again while within the longterm downtrend.
Copper (3.0955) has bounced sharply from channel support near 3.05 reaching our earlier target of 3.10 negating the bearish view. It may fall 3.10 towards 3, but if it breaks above 3.10, it my target 3.12-3.13 and even 3.15. The recent rally since from mar14 is still in force.
WTI (100.05) has come off sharply from channel resistance near 101.17 but is testing support near current levels. A break above101.17 is required to rise further towards 102-103. Movements may range within 100-101 region for now.
Brent (108.21) is trading near support levels and may target higher levels of 109-110 in the coming weeks. But after the movement on Friday there may be a fall towards 107-107.5 before a fresh rise. Near term looks bullish.
FOREX
The Dollar regained a bit of shine on Friday but may face some resistance to further gains in the near term. The Euro (1.3754) trades well below 1.3780 but immediately crucial Support at 1.3737 needs to break to allow for further decline towards 1.3700-3670. The Pound (1.6850) also saw decent profit-taking from 1.7000 last week and can fall towards 1.6700 only if Support at the current level breaks.
Dollar-Yen (101.98) remains well above important near-term Support at 101.40. Should the EURJPY (140.28) bounce from crucial long-term Support at 139.94 this week, the Dollar-Yen too might be able to climb and remain above 102.27. The overall picture vacillates between sideways range and bullishness with longer-term Support at 100.90.
The Aussie (0.9362) remains strong overall and in a broad uptrend since 0.8660 (Jan-14), but could see a consolidative dip towards 0.9260 unless it manages to break above 0.9400 early this week.
Smaller currencies (BRL, RUB, ZAR, SGD etc) may all weaken a bit against the Dollar this week. Dollar-Rupee (60.0450 on Friday) faces crucial Resistance at 60.10-15. A break above that could slowly take it higher.
INTEREST RATES
The supports have held well for the US yield spreads as the 30-10Yr spread (0.83%) and 30-5Yr (1.83%) remained up after the bounce on Thursday. And also the supports for the 30Yr (3.47%) and 10Yr (2.64%) and 5Yr (1.64%) have held as the yields saw a slight rise. We may see the US yield curve steeping in the coming months if the supports continue to hold.
The Euro (1.3754) has dropped further and can now test support near 1.37. But the German US 2Yr differential (-0.23%) continues to trade higher. The German 10Yr (1.46%) has come up above 1.45% but may still target 1.40% if it is unable to maintain this rise.
The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.42%) is testing support at current levels and we may see a bounce from here taking the yields higher. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.03%) has risen slightly as the Dollar-Yen (101.98) trades higher.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.74%) has dipped further and is vulnerable to a fall towards 8.60% while below 8.80%. The IIP and the CPI data will be released today. We need to wait and see how the markets react to it.

Forex Knowledge 9 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 9 MAY 2014 currency Report.


EQUITIES
Equities in the Western Hemisphere appear stronger than those in the Orient.
The Dow (16550.97, +32.43) and Dax (9607.40, +86.10) rose for the second day yesterday. The overall sideways consolidation continues with chances of an eventual break on the upside in the coming weeks. It would be wrong to sell Stocks.
Even the Nikkei (14247.57, +83.79) is seeing some short-covering yesterday, possibly on the small rise in Dollar-Yen. The Nikkei and the Shanghai (2010, -6) have crucial Supports near 13800 and 2000 respectively on the 3-day Candles. That said, the Nikkei is possibly the most vulnerable of all the 4 Major Indices reviewed here. A rise past 102.20 in Dollar-Yen will be crucial o bring some strength back into the Nikkei.
The Nifty (6659.85) was stable yesterday but remains vulnerable to a further dip towards 6600 while below 6700.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1289.555) dropped sharply as resistance near 1315.32 holds well. The gains in equities have curbed demand for the metal as it trades lower for the 3rd consecutive session. Crucial Support in the 1290-1279 region may help it to bounce towards 1325. However, a break below 1279, if seen, could bring a fall to 1260 on the downside.
Silver (19.17) is also trading just above crucial near-term Support near 19.00-18.65. This if holds may take the prices to 20.2-20.5 levels from where it may again fall back towards 19. Overall long term downtrend persists.
Copper (3.0580) is ranged sideways for the last few sessions and may trade in the 3-3.05 region unless we see a break on either side. The recent rally from 2.877 (Mar?14) seems to have ended with no signs of bullish signal. A fall below 3 could push it to 2.90.
WTI (100.47) has dropped a bit from 100.99 while in an upward rally targeting 102 in the near term. Above 100, the near term looks bullish with some ranged moves in the 100.4-101 region. A break above 102.6 may target 105 in the coming weeks. Brent (108.06) is trading high and may reach 110-111in the near term if it breaks two crucial resistances near 108.17 and 109.16. Overall it is bullish.
FOREX
A bit of short-covering strength has come back into the Dollar. It is to be seen now if it gets support from US Yields to move higher.
The Euro (1.3837) has come off sharply from a high near 1.3994 on Draghi's hints of easing in June. The lack of follow-through buying above 1.3967 followed by the fall below 1.3900 could be a sign of longer term weakness, but a break below 1.3780 is needed to confirm.
The Pound (1.6918) maintains relative strength above 1.6900 even though it has been seeing profit-taking from 1.6996 over the last three days. The medium-term trend remains up, but Support at 1.6880 needs to hold today in order to avoid a dip towards 1.6780 next week. The EUR-GBP (0.8178) continues to fall and threatens to break below previous low near 0.6158.
Dollar-Yen (101.70) has been finding Trendline Support just above 101.35 this week but needs to rise past 102.20 in order to restore strength in the longer term bullish trend. Else, there may be near-term danger of a break below 101.35 which could lead to a test of more crucial long-term Support at 100.70. But, that the Euro-Yen (140.73) has come off sharply from 142.36 (on the Euro's fall) will make it hard for Dollar-Yen to move up significantly.
The Aussie (0.9359) is seeing some profit-taking just below 0.94, but has important Support at 0.9340. It continues to look relatively strong against the Euro, Yen and Pound and so might be able to stand relatively firm against the Dollar as well.
Although the Dollar-Rupee NDF rate seems to be trading low near 59.8750, there could be some chances of a bounce today on the Dollar's strength against the Majors overnight.
INTEREST RATES
The US yield spreads saw a bounce from the supports near 0.78% for the 30-10Yr (0.83%) and 1.71% for the 30-5Yr (1.83%). The 5Yr yield (1.62%) has come to test the support at current levels while the 10Yr (2.61%) remained stable and the 30Yr (3.44%) saw a bounce. All in all, we may see the US yield curve steeping in the coming months.
In Europe, the Euro (1.3837) saw a huge drop after the ECB Monetary Policy statement yesterday. The ECB kept the rates unchanged and Draghi hinted that the ECB will wait for the June forecasts and then decide on further course of action. The German 10Yr (1.44%) is still trading low and can target 1.40% while below 1.45%.
The BOE also kept its interest rates unchanged even though the Economic conditions have shown signs of improvement and unemployment falling below the BOE's threshold limit of 7%.
The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.42%) is testing support at current levels and we may see a bounce from here taking the yields higher. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.01%) has remained stable as the Dollar-Yen (101.70) trades lower.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.76%) has come off from the resistance near 8.80% and is vulnerable to a fall towards 8.60% while below 8.80%.

Forex Knowledge 8 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 8 MAY 2014 currency Report.



EQUITIES
A surprising jump in both Imports & Exports for China and the statement from the Fed Chairperson Yellen assuring the market about the Fed's continued support to the economy boosted the sentiment in nearly every market today.
The Dow (16518.54, +0.72%) bounced from 16350 levels on the back of a Fed statement about no hurry to raise interest rates. But the risk of further fall remains as long as this 10 week long range of 16000-16600 remains intact. Keep watching for a break above 16650 for a signal for a rise towards 17000 levels.
The Dax (9521.30, +0.57%) is stuck in a narrow range of 9350-9650 for the last 9 sessions and broadly, inside 9050-9720 for more than 2 months. A breakout above 9720 may produce a very sharp rally to 10000-10200 but the initial signal for any significant move would come only on a break beyond 9350-9650.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2027.13, +0.85%) faced sharp rejection from 2040 exactly as expected. The index runs the risk of resuming the major downtrend anytime now. Any attempt to bounce may not be that smooth with 2070-80 expected to stiffly push down any bounce.
The Nikkei (14186.56, +1.09%) has bounced a little from our support area of 14000-13850 but the trend remains weak below 14500-700. No clarity is available in this range of 14000-14700. Bias remains neutral.
The Nifty (6652.55, -0.93%) tested the lower boundary of the range of 6650-6850 as CNX IT broke down sharply firmly below 9050-40 to signal further downside towards 8600-500. Any bounce on the back of the global cues needs to make a new high above 6720-40 to negate the weakness. If Nifty trades below 6650, keep an eye for 6620 where the correction has a chance to end. Below 6620, the door to 6500 opens up.
COMMODITIES
Mixed signals from Commodities. Gold-Silver testing crucial Supports, with long-term bullishness/ bearishness at stake. Copper looks a little vulnerable to weakness while Crude is potentially bullish.
Gold (Spot 1290) has dipped in line with yesterday's expectation of fall to 1300. Crucial Support seen in the 1290-1279 region over today-tomorrow. Needs to hold to keep near-term bullishness intact and produce a bounce towards 1325 again. Break below 1279, if seen, could bring serious doubt to Gold strength.
Silver (19.27) too has crucial near-term Support coming up between 19.00-18.65. These need to hold in order to produce a bounce, else the long-term downtrend, which provides strong Resistance at 20.25-40 could push prices lower in the next few weeks.
WTI (100.86) is moving up this week after having dipped to 98.75 last week. The rise above 100.40-75 over yesterday-today raises trust in an overall bullish scenario. A Week Close above 102.50 would suggest chances of rise towards 105 in the coming weeks.
Brent (108.02) has also bounced from crucial Support at 107 and can aim for higher levels if it manages to rise past 109. We remain bullish for 114 in the medium/ long term.
Copper (3.0365) trades below 3.05 today, which puts our target of 3.10 at risk. The failure to stay above 3.05 is a first sign of potential weakness. It needs to remain above 3.00 at least if it wants to look strong. Else, there will be danger of a fall towards 2.90.
FOREX
Dollar Index (79.2340) is trying to bounce from 79 but till it trades above 79.50-55 soon, the risk remains. But the band of 79.00-78.60 has provided support for nearly 2 years now and that is the hope for bulls.
The Euro (1.3913) is going under a small correction after breaking above 1.3900 and hitting 1.3951 so far. Keep an eye if ECB takes some step near 1.4000-50 but a break above 1.4050 would open the door to huge upside targets.
Dollar-Yen (101.87), even in the current weak state, has managed so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. We keep watching a break of the long term support at 101.00-100.50 for major moves on the downside.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.75) has remained almost unchanged as both Euro and Yen appreciated considerably but may move sharply any day now. The broader range of 140.00-143.50 must be broken to generate a trending move.
Pound (1.6948) is correcting after reaching our target zone of 1.7000-50 as it made a high at 1.6996. Remaining above 1.6850-30 on any correction, it may rise towards 1.7250-90 in the next few sessions.
Aussie (0.9368) broke above 0.9315 to make a high at 0.9370 as expected but it remains to be seen if it manages to break above the strong resistance area of 0.9380-0.9400 to confirm a reversal and rise to 0.9540-80. A failure may result in another fall to 0.92.
Dollar-Rupee (60.1350) ended the day at the high of a 19 paisa range but keeping the current downtrend in mind, the price-action at 60.25-28 remains to be seen before giving the Dollar Rupee bulls any hope. Failure to break above 60.25-28 keeps the possibility of testing the major support zone of 59.80-60 alive very much.
INTEREST RATES
The US yield curve steepened a little as the 10Yr (2.62%) and the 30Yr (3.40%) saw a slight bounce yesterday while the 5Yr (1.64%) dipped. The yields have crucial supports coming up at 1.62%, 2.50% and 3.35% for the 5, 10 and 30Yr respectively. The 30-10Yr spread (0.78%) is also testing support at current levels. So we can expect the US Yield curve to start steepening in the coming months if the supports hold.
The German-US 2Yr yield differential (-0.25%) saw a slight dip as the Euro (1.3913) trades lower ahead of the ECB Meeting. With the Euro targeting the longer term resistance near 1.40-50 we can expect the yield differential to rise further towards -0.20%.
The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.41%) is testing support at current levels and we may see a bounce from here taking the yields higher. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.02%) has come up slightly, moving in perfect co-relation with Dollar-Yen (101.87) and we can expect it to rise from here if the Dollar-Yen bounces from the support at current levels.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.80%) has come up to test a resistance at current levels. A break above 8.80% and it can target 8.90% otherwise it is vulnerable to a fall towards 8.50-8.60%.

The ECB and BOE will come out with their Monetary Policy statement today evening. With the Euro getting stronger and low inflation still a concern for the ECB we need to see whether Draghi makes in changes in the Monetary Policy. While in England with the unemployment falling below 7% the BOE is may now consider increasing the interest rates.

Forex Knowledge 7 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 7 MAY 2014 currency Report.


EQUITIES
A stronger Yen and a sharp fall in the tech stocks in US has unnerved the Asian markets this morning in the backdrop of a weak Chinese economy and the Russia-Ukraine standoff.
The Dow (16401.02, -0.78%) failed to break above 16650 for 3 consecutive days resulting in a fall as expected. We may see further fall to 16300 or lower as long as this 10 week long range of 16000-16600 remains intact..
The Dax (9467.53, -0.65%) is stuck in a narrow range of 9350-9650 for the last 9 sessions and broadly, inside 9050-9720 for more than 2 months. A breakout above 9720 may produce a very sharp rally to 10000-10200 but the initial signal for any significant move would come only on a break beyond 9350-9650.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2022.62, -0.27%) faced sharp rejection from 2040 exactly as expected. The index runs the risk of resuming the major downtrend anytime now if not already started. Any attempt to bounce may not be that smooth with 2070-80 expected to stiffly push down any bounce.
The Nikkei (14125.12, -2.30%) has broken below 14200 even before reaching our strong resistance at 14675-700 below which the trend remains weak. Now the price action in the support zone of 14000-13850 remains to be seen. Bias remains neutral.
The Nifty (6715.30, +0.24%) spent the day in a narrow 40-point range and may keep trading in narrow ranges like this till the General Election result day. If it manages to stay above 6700 in the initial hours, a rise to 6750 levels may be expected. Only a break below 6650 and then 6620 would open the door to much lower levels of 6500-6400.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1311.667) has paused after its rise in the last two sessions, as resistance near 1315.32 holds for now. A break above this level would ensure a rise towards 1320-1330. The double- bottom on the charts indicates near term bullish strength which negates the earlier bearish views. We may see a fall to 1300 before a fresh upward rally.
Silver (19.667) is trading near crucial 19.66 which if breaks may rise towards 20-20.5. The near term range may be restricted within 18.5-20. Overall it is ranged within the long term downtrend.
Copper (3.0550) has been trading near the channel support for the last 5-sessions still aiming to reach 3.10.
Nymex WTI (100.08) may trade within 100.42-98.71 for a couple of sessions now. A break above 100.42 and further 100.76 is needed to confirm a rally upwards. Note that a break below 98.71 could lead to a fall to 97-96 levels.
Brent (107.24) is nearing to test long term support near 107-106.81 from where it may bounce back to 108-109 levels. Near term view is bullish.
FOREX
A rise in Eurozone sales has strengthened the Euro considerably and that has resulted in stronger Yen and EM currencies. Dollar is running weak against nearly everything.
Dollar Index (79.14) has hit a new 12-month low at 79.06 and currently consolidating near the major support of 79-78.50. Still no sign of buyers is visible and further drop to 78.90-60 looks more probable now. Only a break above 80.15 would be an initial sign of strength.
The Euro (1.3925) has broken above 1.3900 and hit a high of 1.3951 so far. Keep an eye if ECB takes some step near 1.4000-50 but a break above 1.4050 would open the door to huge upside targets.
Dollar-Yen (101.60), even in the current weak state, has managed so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. We keep watching a break of the long term support at 101.00-100.50 for major moves on the downside.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.49) has remained almost unchanged as both Euro and Yen appreciated considerably. The broader range of 140.00-143.50 must be broken to generate any meaningful move.
Pound (1.6971) has almost reached our target zone of 1.7000-50 as it made a high at 1.6996 so far. Remaining above 1.6850-30 on any correction, it may rise towards 1.7250-90 in the next few sessions.
Aussie (0.9342) broke above 0.9315 to make a high at 0.9367 as expected but it remains to be seen if it manages to break above the strong resistance area of 0.9380-0.9400 to confirm a reversal. A failure may result in another fall to 0.92.
Dollar-Rupee (60.10) has failed to break above 60.25-28 despite repeated attempts and the fall has resumed in line with our expectation. This failure keeps the possibility of testing the major support zone of 59.80-60 alive very much.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have dipped a little yesterday and the yield curve continues to flatten. They have crucial supports coming up for the 5Yr (1.67%) at 1.62%, the 10Yr (2.59%) at 2.50% and the 30Yr (3.38%) at 3.35%. The 30-10Yr spread (0.80%) is also testing support at current levels. So we can expect the US Yield curve to start steepening in the coming months if the supports hold.
The German-US 2Yr yield differential (-0.28%) moved up along with the Euro (1.3925) which broke above the resistance near 1.39. With the Euro targeting the longer term resistance near 1.40-50 we can expect the yield differential to rise further towards -0.20%.
The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.42%) has come to test supports at current levels and we may see a bounce from here taking the yields higher. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (1.98%) has been moving in perfect co-relation with Dollar-Yen (101.60) and we can expect it to rise from here if the Dollar-Yen see a bounce from the support at current levels.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.77%) has moved up a little but is still vulnerable to a fall towards 8.50-8.60% while below 8.80%.

We have the ECB and BOE Meeting tomorrow. With the Euro rising on the back of a good PMI and Retail Sales data and the low inflation still a concern we need to see what whether Mario Draghi makes any changes in the Monetary policy. While in England with the unemployment falling below 7% the BOE may now consider increasing the interest rates.


EUR/USD: BUY AT 1.3910 FOR 1.4005 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.3863
USD/JPY: MISSED SELL AT 101.78, LOOK TO SELL 101.80/85
GBP/USD: LONG AT 1.6700 FOR REVISED 1.7044; STOP AT 1.6880
USD/CHF: SHORT AT .8824 FOR REVISED .8698; STOP REVISED AT .8785
AUD/USD: BUY AT .9322 FOR .9461; STOP AT .9261
USD/CAD: SHORT AT 1.0980 FOR 1.0858 OBJECTIVE, REV STOP 1.0979

Crosses
EUR/JPY: LONG AT 141.40 FOR 143.47; STOP AT 140.89
EUR/GBP: POSSIBLY SELL
EUR/CHF: SHORT AT 1.2190 FOR 1.2123; STOP AT 1.2218
EUR/CAD: SHORT AT 1.5215 FOR 1.5005 OBJ, STOP 1.5315
GBP/JPY: LONG AT 172.50 FOR 174.85; STOP AT 171.60

NZD/USD: LONG AT .8600 FOR REVISED .8842; STOP AT .8630

Forex Knowledge 6 MAY 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 6 MAY 2014 currency Report.


EQUITIES
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified but the effect seems largely contained to the commodities and the equities or Forex have not been affected till now.
The Dow (16530.55, +0.11%) is once again trading close to the upper end of the 10 week long range of 16000-16600 and made a high at 16620 on NFP data before coming down. But the bulls still need a new high above 16650 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend or they will run the risk of going towards 16300 and lower.
The Dax (9529.50, -0.28%) is facing selling once again from the upper end of the range of 9050-9720. This rangebound movement inside the broad range of 9050-9720 is going on for a considerable time now but a breakout above 9720 may produce a very sharp rally to 10000-10200.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2028.85, +0.07%) is testing our resistance at 2030 now and may reach 2040-50 now. The upward journey may not be that smooth with 2070-80 expected to stiffly push down any bounce.
The Nikkei (14457.51, -0.19%) has bounced from our target zone of 14200. The trend remains weak below 14675-700. But a break above 14700 will take it higher to 15000-200. Bias is neutral now.
The Nifty (6699.35, +0.07%) bounced as expected but was limited to 6740 levels so far. Today it may try to bounce again towards our expected 6770-90, the major resistance areas now inside the broader range of 6650-6850. Only a break below 6650 and then 6620 would open the door to much lower levels of 6500-6400.
COMMODITIES
Gold, Copper and Silver potentially bearish while Crude may trade higher in the near term.
Gold (1309.019) and Silver (19.51) are stable for now. Gold came off from crucial 1315.32 which if holds may push it to 1300; else it may rise higher to 1320. Silver remains stable while below crucial resistance at 19.66. Overall metals are in a long term downtrend.
Copper (3.0500) is testing channel support on the daily and may bounce a little targeting 3.08-3.10. Overall longterm down trend is in force since Jan12 and the bears would hover around unless we see a break above 3.10-3.15.
Nymex WTI (99.41) is trading within crucial levels of 98.71-100.76 and unless a break on either side of this range it may remain ranged. A break above 100.76-100.99 could take it higher to 101.12-102 levels. However if a break below 98.71 is seen, it may fall further towards 96-94. Overall it's in an uptrend since Jun12.
Brent (107.71) fell sharply as the 200-day MA holds well for now. While below resistance at 109.18, it may trade in the broad 107-109 region. It needs to break crucial level of 108.74 and then 109.18 above which it may target 110. Note that it is testing channel support on the daily charts and may bounce back in the next couple of sessions.
FOREX
The major currencies remain largely unchanged after the Friday spikes produced by the surprising US NFP data.
Dollar Index (79.4690) keeps trading inside the broad range of 79.25-80.50 and is close to the major support of 79-78.50 now. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will reverse from down to up. A break above 80.15 would be an initial sign of strength.
The Euro (1.3880) is trading in a narrow sideways range of 1.3860-90 after bouncing from 1.3810. While the bounce is bullish enough, it must break above 1.3900 to confirm immediate rise to 1.4000-50.
Dollar-Yen (100.06) tested 103 briefly before sharply reversing to the downside. It has managed so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. We keep watching the long term support at 101.00-100.50 for major moves.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.66) has tested the 141 as expected but the broader range of 140.00-143.50 must be broken to generate any meaningful move. It may trade in this range for some more time.
Pound (1.6877) has lost some of its bullish momentum contrary to our expectation when it tested 1.6820 after the NFP data. The immediate recovery keeps alive the possibility of further rise towards 1.7000-50 but another dip to 1.6800-6760 can't be ruled out before any rally.
Aussie (0.9285) may rise to the strong resistance area of 0.9380-0.9400 if it manages to break and stay above 0.9315 now. A failure may result in another fall to 0.92. Major supports remain at 0.9160-30.
Dollar-Rupee (60.21) has bounced from 60.00 levels but doesn't bring any conclusive reversal yet. The oversold state has produced a 23 paisa bounce similar to the bounce of 25 paisa on 28th April before falling again. So it remains to be seen if it manages to break above 60.25-28 today to reach the strong resistance zone of 60.40-50. If it fails to break above 60.25-28, the fall may resume again.
INTEREST RATES
The US 5Yr (1.68%), 10Yr (2.61%) and the 30Yr (3.40%) yields saw a slight rise yesterday. The yields have crucial supports coming up at 1.62%, 2.50% and 3.35% respectively. The 30-10Yr spread (0.80%) has also come to test support at current levels. We can now expect the US Yield curve to steepen in the coming months if these supports hold.
The German-US 2Yr yield differential (-0.29%)remained stable and may come to test the support near -0.35% as the Euro (1.3880) struggles to break above the long term resistance at current levels. The German 10Yr (1.46%) remained stable and can target 1.40%.
The Japanese markets are closed today. The Japan yield spreads have come to test supports at current levels and we may see a bounce from here.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.74%) dropped below the support near 8.80% and is vulnerable to further fall towards 8.50-8.60% while below 8.80%.

Over in Australia, we have the RBA Meeting at 10.00 (IST) and it is expected that the RBA will keep its rates unchanged.