Forex Knowledge 17 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 17 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


The Dow (16781.01, + 0.03%) has been steadily gaining over the last two days after the sharp fall but in January we will not have two consecutive down week so far. So the bulls would have to worry about until the 16600-300 breaks and next week turns out to be another down for the week. Dax (0.29%) was found in 9883.98, the support trendline and grew in January-may, tops, 9850-9800 as expected. The second raise 10300-400 still on the cards, as long as it remains above the 9800-700.
At the end of the current (Nikkei 15008.42, + 0.50%) for the repair of the ends above 15250 but significant support for repair can go a few times coming to a 14,700-650. Shanghai (2070.93,-0.72%) has achieved our original goal to 2080 of 2100-05, but the next goal, it has to be kept above support 2060-55.
Nifty (7533.55,-0.11%) were offended by the WPI as an error but tried to create a false bottom, near the intraday 7485. Stoploss long in aggressive would be to ensure the transition between the break below 7485 7485 7450. Any bounce would face selling pressure near 7580 7615. Careful stock picking can produce good results, even in this condition.
COMMODITIES
Commodities are all trading at low levels not only in copper.
(1271.80) in gold and silver (19.639) have fallen a little bit of dollar strength of currencies yesterday. Is a short-term rally in metals over? Or is this just a repair? We'll have to wait and see for a couple of sessions to confirm if the metals have continued a long-term downtrend.
Nymex WTI (106.64) and Brent (112.66) have both been suspended at higher levels after the recent rise in the past week. Need to get up from here or see some fixes before continuing the uptrend. The markets expect oil prices to a looming civil war in Iraq.
Copper (3.0600) is recovered from a well above the level of 3. 3.0-3.07 is valid for an indefinite period, and we will have to see if it rises over 3.07 3.10 in the short-term and focus on long-term downtrend.
FOREX
All currencies (except Sterling) stuck in a narrow range of the dollar itself is stuck in post-ECB's area. The dollar, the rupee is currently driven by internal factors and the data.
EUR (1.3564) tries to find strength to 1.3500-3475 support in the last 3-4 sessions, but confirmed only that a bullish reversal above 1.3630, then 1.3680. The Bias is neutral.
Dollar-yen (102.01) and trade in a few days, but the narrow 102.15 101.60 a 10 week long range 101-103 may continue for another few days. Euro-yen (138.38), try to keep holding up a weak way, but the downside risk is still likely in the testing of 137 is still there. Indicators show bullish reversal possible but which establish a break above 139.50-60.
The original objective of the 1.70 pounds (1.6964) violates any of the above, the Director-General would very much like the 1.6850 BOE said that the interest rate hike may come faster than expected. The rise may reach next target 1.71 levels as soon as 2-3 days to repair.
Aussie (0.9360) is pulled, warned yesterday and is testing major support area 0.9360-40. A Bounce here, a break of less than a large but can produce new 0.9340 take it to 0.93 or even lower. Keep an eye on the activities of the immediate price 0.9360-40.
Dollar-rupee (60.16) to achieve all the goals, and later for repair as long as the price of additional upside down 60.22 points stays above 60.00. Now, it could rise to 60.40-50 or even a major resistance area 60.80-90.
INTEREST RATES
India may WPI was shot the previous 6.1% vs. 5.2% of the depreciating rupee by 20 to 25 paisa for. 10 Yr India (8.65%) also shot up to support close to 8.5%, as expected, and you can now target the 8.70 percent in the short term. No space for the rise of the US consumer price index is to be released today.
UK 10-5 yr yield differential (0.66%) has dropped sharply and stocks than the 0.74 percent of the resistance near Iraq is part of the concern. The pound fell slightly (from 1.6964) ranged from 1.70 1.69 yesterday and can remain in the area close by.
US 5 (v) (1.70%), 10 v (2.59%) and 30 Yr (3.39) are almost stable. US 10-5 Yr yield (0.90%) is stable now, and can recover from 0.94%. But can not negate the fall towards 0.87% right now.

The Japanese and German yields are also trading lower Euro (1.3564) and the dollar yen (102.04) weakened slightly against the u.s. dollar today.

Forex Knowledge 16 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 16 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


Asia-pac is in a negative mood this morning as the violence in Iraq increases. The impacts are not noticeable yet but the possibility of escalation is always there and the markets are trying to assess this risk.
Dow (16775.74, +0.25%) has lost almost all of the previous week'a gains but after January we haven't got two consecutive down weeks so far. So bulls would not be concerned till 16600-300 gets broken and the next week turns out to be another down week. The Dax (9912.87, -0.26%) has found support from the trendline and the January and May tops in 9850-9800 as expected. Another push up to 10300-400 remains on cards as long as it stays above 9800-700.
The Nikkei (15003.83, -0.62%) correction has extended to 14850 already and the correction may go on for some more time with major support coming in 14700-650. The Shanghai (2070.17, -0.03%) has broken above 2055-61 to spike up sharply and may reach 2080-2105 now but another down leg may be pending before any major reversal.
Nifty (7542.10, +1.41%) has broken below 7580 to fall sharply to 7525. The fall may extend to 7500 and 7450 below 7525 and any bounce would face selling pressure near 7580-7615. Stay out of the main index for a while but cautious stock picking may yield good results even in this condition.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1281.26) has been rising towards earlier levels of 1300. The coming sessions may be bullish while Gold may enter into the crucial 1300-1325 levels where it may be ranged in the near term.
Silver (19.778) has stretched its rally nearing towards 20. A break above 20 may take it higher to the crucial 20.5 levels from where we may see a correction. Overall the near term is bullish within a long term down trend.
Nymex WTI (107.27) has come off a bit but is trading higher near 107. Near term remains bullish with a target of 110.
Brent (112.72) is trading higher after the sharp up move last week. If the rise sustains above 114 we may see a target of 116-116.20 in the near term. We need to see if it continues to rise from here or pause for some sessions before resuming its rise. Note that a crucial resistance is coming up near 114. Overall the near term is bullish.
Copper (3.0445) has bounced after the better Chinese IIP and Retail Sales data on Friday. The earlier range of 3.00-3.07 remains intact for now as we may see some consolidation in this range for a few sessions now. Overall long term trend remains down.
FOREX
The possibility of rising rates by the central banks are getting increasing every day with the BOE clearly signaling a rise sooner than expected by the markets with the Pound making multi-year highs now. It makes any rate cut in India tougher and Rupee weaker.
Euro (1.3539) is trying to find strength from the support area of 1.3500-3475 for the last 3-4 sessions but that bullish reversal will be confirmed only on a break above 1.3630 and then 1.3680. The bias is neutral now.
Dollar-Yen (101.87) may test the support area of 101.40-20 before it finds any sustained buying. The 9 week long range of 101-103 may continue for a few more days. The Euro-Yen (137.92) is trying to hold its ground in a very weak manner but the downside risk of testing 137 or even 136 levels is clearly there with increasing probability.
Pound (1.6982) is close to achieving our initial target of 1.70 after breaking out above 1.6850 very sharply as the BOE Governor commented that a rate hike may come sooner than expected. This rise may reach the next target of 1.71 levels very soon.
The Aussie (0.9400) has broken above 0.9410, the last swing high, to confirm the intermediate uptrend and is close to testing the 7 month high of 0.9461 now. Still the lack of bullish momentum may bring some downside risk of seeing 0.93 on the table. Stay cautious.
Dollar-Rupee (59.77) broke above 59.45 to enter our target area of 59.75-60.00 but must trade above 59.80 today to continue the rally. In that case, 60.10 may be possible target but keep an eye on the entire supply zone of 59.80-60.25.
INTEREST RATES
The US 5Yr (1.69%), 10Yr (2.59%) and the 30Yr (3.40) are all lower. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.90%) has dropped further and may test levels of 0.87%-0.85% in the near term.
The German US 2Yr differential (-0.43%) has also dropped targeting support near -0.50% on the weekly from where it may bounce back. The Euro (1.3539) is trading lower but if the Euro strengthens, we may see the yield differential go up. The German 10Yr (1.36%) has dropped and is below crucial resistance near 1.40%.
The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (1.99%) has come off from resistance near 2.04% as expected while the Dollar-Yen (101.86) is trading lower. USDJPY is ranged in the 101-102 region for now and may remain range bound for a few more sessions. The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.41%) and the Japan 10Yr (0.59%) all lower than last week.

The 10Yr GOI (8.59%) has moved up from support near 8.5% as expected amd may now move higher towards 8.70%.

Forex Knowledge 13 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 13 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

The BOJ has kept interest rates unchanged and the size of the u.s. market will be a correction, which spreads to global markets. It is time to keep an eye on the commodities, especially oil.
The Dow (16734.19,-0.65%) has already lost almost all of the previous week's gains, but in the month of January, we do not have two consecutive down week so far. So the bulls would have to worry about until the 16600-300 breaks and next week turns out to be another down for the week. Dax (9938.70,-0.11%) correct too, but immediately the trendline support 9850 can come in aid of the Bulls. The second raise 10300-400 still on the cards, as long as it remains above the 9800-700.
The Nikkei (14878.00,-0.64%) and repair, the repair is extended to 14850 could go on for a while already significant support coming to the 14,700-650. Shanghai (2058.31, + 0.32%) has been trying to emerge as a weak way past 3 sessions, but it has to get before highs 2055-61.2055-61 range must be hard out to signal a good rally.
Nifty (7649.90, + 0.30%) and major uptrend is already partially discounted improved the consumer price index was released today after market hours. Now the big transfer will only break 7580 7700 differently. Keep an eye on 7580 7580 as now just a break below may signal a deeper correction.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1272.96) has risen since the last 6 sessions for the almost immediate protest near 1278 1280, while Silver (19.55) is also heading towards the importance of 19.66. You need to look at where the metals can break those levels or gets pushed back to the previous level. The overall long-term trend is down.
Nymex WTI (107.29) have increased in the next few weeks, breaking above 102.25 violence in Iraq gives a bullish sign threatens oil supplies. It will now target the 110 level in the short term.
Brent (112.81) has also risen quite to our desires. As I said, the prices of the contraction seems to have finally ended, and this can start a fresh bulls targeting the 115-117 in the near future. Overall, the oil market is bullish.
Copper (3.0255) has fallen targeting 3 2.90 in the coming weeks. 2.90-3.05 region in the region can still sometimes we choose it. Overall, the long-term trend is down.
FOREX
The dollar has faced some of the large companies, in particular, the attack on the pound. Perhaps now is the status of the risk-and thus confirms the major currencies.
EUR (1.3558) trying to find the strength to support the region, once again, that the 1.3500-3475 bullish reversal confirmed only above 1.3630, then 1.3680. The Bias is neutral.
Dollar-yen (101.78) is trading below 101.95-85 support area and will now be able to test the 101.40-20 support area before running the buying. 9 weeks long range 101-103 may continue for another few days. That
Euro-yen (137.99) trying to recover on the back of a somewhat tighter Euro but there is clearly a risk of testing the levels of 137.
Pound (1.6945) broke out in a very sharply above 1.6850 Markit reported faster growth in manufacturing in the UK in April and the BOE, the Director-General said that the interest rate hike may come faster than expected. This rise can achieve the 1.70-71 very soon.
Aussie (0.9412) has broken down before the last swing high, strengthen 0.9410 uptrend and a near 7-month high of testing and 0.9461 now. The Weekly close above 0.9409 would add to the bullish feeling.
No cue is from anywhere to any decisive move in the dollar-rupee (59.25), which uses another sideways session uptrend fully intact. We are still waiting for the next stage of the rally and 59.45 above confirms the significant support is still a 59.00
INTEREST RATES
US 5 (v) (1.70%), 10 (v) (2.60%) and a 30 Yr (3.41) have fallen. United States 10-5 Yr yield spread (0.90%) to extend its fall and can either stay ranged from 1.0 to 0.9 in the region or come off more of 0.87 in the next week.
German-US 2 Yr difference (-0.43%) has dropped even further, and may target-0.50% on a weekly basis from which it can recover. EUR (1.35570) grow to support close to the 1.3520 keeps well. The Euro may strengthen towards 1.36, which can increase the return on the price differences. German 10 Yr (1.39%) has fallen strangely but may move once again towards the 1.40% 1.3%.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield differential (2.00%) came off of 2.0% as the dollar-yen (101.77) fell off sharply. The Japanese 10-5 Yr yield spread (0.43%) is dropped from the resistance, as expected, Japan 10 Yr (0.60%) remained stable.

10 Yr India (8.53%) declined slightly and may test of 8.5% before rising from there. A break below the 8.50% may push the 8.30-8.28% in the medium term.

Forex Knowledge 12 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 12 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


The drop in World Bank forecast for growth in 2014 from 3.2% to 2.8% has affected nearly all the global markets including the lowest volatile market of the US and the Asia-Pac is feeling the heat too.
It was mentioned that the price action in Dow (16843.88, -0.60%) is somewhat reminiscent of the September 2012 top, warranting caution and now the biggest single-day correction in last 1 month has emerged. Only on a break below 16800, this correction will extend to the major support area in 16600-300. The Dax (9949.81, -0.79%) has corrected too but the immediate trendline support at 9850 may come in aid for the bulls. Another push up to 10300-400 remains on cards as long as it stays above 9800-700.
The Nikkei (14952.77, -0.77%) correction has extended to 14850 already and the correction may go on for some more time. The Shanghai (2048.97, -0.29%) has been trying to rise in a weak manner for the last 2 sessions but that is getting resisted at the prior highs in 2055-61. This 2055-61 area must be firmly broken to signal a good rally.
Nifty (7626.85, -0.39%) lost all of its intraday gains just after touching 7700, implying that as expected, the correction from 7680 was unfinished and may finish at 7540. Keep an eye on 7580 as now a break below 7580 may signal a corrective mode or at least a sideways mode.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1260.44) is trading above crucial 1260 levels, and if this sustains we may see 1280 in the coming sessions. Near term is bullish while the overall long term is still bearish.
Silver (19.18) made a high of 19.33 yesterday but came off from there slightly. It may target 19.4-19.5 in the coming sessions and a break above 19.5 may take it higher towards 20-20.5. But there are chances of resistance near 19.5 holding which would then keep the prices ranged below 19.5.
Nymex WTI (104.61) has moved up and is targeting 105.22-105.25 in the near term while the overall trend remains up.
Brent (110.35) is in the last leg of the contracting movement that started in 2012. It is ranged in a very narrow 108.5-111 region and as said earlier, any break on either side of the range may initiate a sharp movement. Bias is bullish with a near term target of 112.
Copper (3.0425) is ranged within the 3.01-3.07 region and may continue to consolidate sideways for a few sessions before deciding its further direction. A fall towards 2.95-2.90 is not fully negated yet. We need to wait and watch for any signal of further movement. Overall long term trend remains down.
FOREX
Euro (1.3545) has lost nearly all of the latest gain after creating the major bottom at 1.35, contrary to our expectation. We must watch the price action at the support area of 1.3500-3475 now before taking any stance though the bullish view is still not negated fully.
Dollar-Yen (102.10) has tested exactly the support area of 101.95-85 but the Dollar bulls need a break above the 9 week long range of 101-103 to resume the rally. The Euro-Yen (138.30) is trying to bounce on the back of somewhat firmer Euro but the downside risk of testing 137 levels is clearly there.
Pound (1.6800) is still contained inside the previous week range but is approaching the upper end of the range and the break out level at 1.6850 once again. Keep an eye on 1.6690-40 for support and 1.6850 for resistance.
The Aussie (0.9374) has tested but failed to break above 0.9410, the last swing high, to confirm the intermediate uptrend. 2-34 days of consolidation before any breakout would be more beneficial for the bulls.
No cue is coming from anywhere for any decisive move in Dollar-Rupee (59.27) which spent another sideways session with the uptrend fully intact. We still wait for a break above 59.45 to confirm the next phase of rally and the major support remains unchanged at 59.00.
INTEREST RATES
The US 5Yr (1.71%), 10Yr (2.64%) and the 30Yr (3.47) have all gone up. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.94%) has been falling sharply since Nov13 and may either remain ranged in the 1.0-0.9 region or come off further towards 0.87 in the coming weeks. There is little more room for the yields to rise in the coming sessions while the market awaits the US CPI next week.
The German US 2Yr differential (-0.38%) has dropped beyond the support near -0.28% but is nearing another support at -0.40-0.50% on the weekly from where it may bounce back. The Euro (1.3542) saw a slight up move from support near 1.3520. If the bounce sustains and the Euro strengthens, we may see the yield differential go up. The German 10Yr (1.402%) has moved up well from support near 1.37-1.40% and may now move higher.
The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.04%) is rising and has broken above resistance near 2.0% as the Dollar-Yen (102.10) also moved up a bit from 101.85. The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.573%) and the Japan 10Yr (0.60%) have risen and are testing resistance near current levels.

The 10Yr GOI (8.54%) has stretched its fall further and may test 8.5% before bouncing from there. A break below 8.50% may push it to 8.30-8.28% in the mid-term.

Forex Knowledge 11 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 11 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


The price action of the Dow (16945.92, + 0.02%) is somewhat reminiscent of September 2012 top, require caution, but if a repair will not emerge from the 17,000-200 soon, the bulls could push the index to 17400 600.
Dax (10028.80, + 0.20%) gives its first closure in over 10,000 levels and last repair requires a long-term bullish strength, what with the impending push up 10300-400 for as long as it remains above the 9800-700.
15028.41, + 0.22%), Nikkei (facing selling pressure near 15200-400 than expected. Fix up the 14,700-500 could be healthy for the bulls. Shanghai (2051.90,-0.03%) hits the top end of the contracting authority, between 2010-55. Keep an eye on the 2055 an early sign but the main breakout occurs only above-2080. Please note, once again, the bad news does not affect the price, which is a sign of strength.
Nifty (7656.40, + 0.02%) ended before 7640 a second consecutive day, but it has yet to break above 7740-60 (rising every day). A great uptrend remains intact is likely to rise toward the 8000-8200, and up to 8500 would be impossible but it is yet to be established, if the 7680 repair is complete.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1262.38) has risen to the level of the last sitting and aspires to 1240 1280 1260 above short-term 1261. All in all, the long term downtrend continues.
Silver (19.236) has also grown and can be a key target of 19.36 which if breaks can take it more toward the 19.50-20 in the long term. Gold-Silver ratio (65.59) came down to the level of 66, as expected, but can now recover from near current levels. This may indicate a surge in precious metals a few times now.
Nymex WTI (104.38) made the intra-day high of 105 105.22 105.06 yesterday touches the profitability target range. It may come as a bit of a correction toward the resumption of 104 before its rise towards 105.22 105.25. Gold-WTI in the relationship (12.0858) has been declining since January 14, coming close to the support level of 11.8-11.9 where it can recover towards a 12.5. This would give indications of gold against the WTI in the near future.
Brent (109.71) seems to whipsaw the 108-110 region without any further direction. We'll have to wait and see the rest of the region on both sides of the break moves. Now, in the short term looks bullish target of 111-112.
Copper (3.0570) has risen back to 3.0185 (low 9 June 2014) but could strengthen a bit 3.00 3.10 within the region in the longer term downtrend. The danger to drop towards the 2.95 can't make threes blank unless exchange rates is not seen. However, a break below 2.95 (if seen) can push it down to 2.90.
FOREX
Only the Aussie will be strengthened on the back of Chinese shares, but all the other majors have weakened considerably against the dollar.
EUR (1.3525) has been to fix the ground after you have created a significant victory in almost all of the latest 1.35, which is near to get tested against all odds. We look at the price action in the support area of the 1.3500-3475 now before taking any position even though the bullish View still not banned completely.
Dollar-yen (102.30) is trading close to 101.95-85 but dollar bulls is a support area above the 9 week long range 101-103 will continue to rally. Euro-yen (138.35), is pushed to the level of 140 to the euro's weakness. Now traders take a break after contracting a range of 138-140.
Pound (1.6744) did not break above the 1.6850-85 to signal a bullish reversal and still contained within the week. Keep an eye out for the support and resistance to 1.6850 1.6690-40.
Aussie (0.9377) is marketing more than the power of a large sample of the trendline resistance 0.9365 in but it is still above the Mediterranean, to reinforce the last swing high 0.9410 uptrend.
Dollar-rupee (59.29) spent sideways session uptrend fully intact. We are still waiting for the next stage of the rally and 59.45 above confirms the significant support has continued to 59.00.
INTEREST RATES
The German yield (5 v 0.43% 1.40%), 10 Yr is changed, the inside has generally decreased. But do not delete the invoice to 1.20% 10 Yr right now, because it may include levels of 1.43 percent.
US 5 v (1.40%) and 10 v (2.49%) have gone down a little bit and can align the lower 1.20% and 2.40% of the short-term critical levels of 2.55% and 1.55% keeps still. Yield differences are also trading lower.

10 Yr India (8.63%) has fallen further, while India and the United States for 10 Yr yield spread (5.95%) has risen slightly. India and the United States is still holding 10 yr yield spread to fall to 5.75 per cent, even though the trend is still down in the short-term.

Forex Knowledge 10 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 10 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


Faster than the expected growth of inflation in China, it is estimated that in May against 2.4 (2.5%) is disappointed in Asia-Pac and original on the market in the red.
A longtime bull market price action in the Dow (16943.10, + 0.11%) are somewhat reminiscent of September 2012 top, require caution, but if a repair will not emerge from the 17,000-200 soon, the bulls could push the index to 17400 600. Dax (10008.63, + 0.21%) gives its first closure in over 10,000 levels and last repair requires a long-term bullish strength, what with the impending push up 10300-400 for as long as it remains above the 9800-700.
In the long term to meet the market-Nikkei (15077.54,-0.31%) struggles with the near-400, as expected, as profit booking 15200 is emerging in the 15200-400 in this area. Fix up the 14,700-500 could be healthy for the bulls. Shanghai (2026.83, 0.18%) marketed between 1990-2080 for a base-building process but keep an eye on the breakout between the contracting authority 2010-55 early signs. Please note, once again, the bad news does not affect the price, which is a sign of strength.
The long-term bull market-a nifty (7654.60, + 0.94%) gave its first closing above 7640 7720-40 and we will keep an eye on immediate resistance. 2-3 days by closing more than rising towards 8,000 7640 may signal-8200 and up to 8500 would be impossible. But the failure of these concentrations would be near the turn toward the 7300-200.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1253.98) has been ranged sideways within a 1200-1400 July13, and although it is still possible to stay which keeps the 1230-1225 on the downside. Only a break above: o-1261.11 can signal the rise towards the 1280-1300. All in all, in the long term, the downtrend is still in force.
Silver (19.068) has also decided to stay in areas ranging from 18.5 to 20 in the past 3 months, and unless a break on either side still shows the direction is not regulated. All in all, a downtrend.
Nymex WTI (104.72) shot up yesterday, is in violation of the above 102.94; targeting our level of 105.00 105.22 earlier When Brent (110.17) also jumped up sharply to 108.5 undoing all of the drop in pressure in the formation. All in all, the longer-term bullishness remains intact, 111-112, Brent and WTI aims at 105.25.
Copper (3.0390) extends the targeting in the coming weeks, of which 3.00 2.95, you can see the piece of log back on to the 3.05-3.07 to destruction. A break below the 2.95 can push it down to 2.90.
FOREX
The huge volatility in the euro is still visible but the other majors are almost silent. But the tornado can be that far from all the currencies in the next few days.
EUR (1.3644) is heavily addressed nearly 50% of the latest victory After a significant base of 1.35, which is expected to break soon. At the end of this repair, it might head more toward 1.3750-3800.
Dollar-yen (102.37) is trading near a 9 week long range 101-103 of the top end. The strength remains unchanged at $ 101.95-85 above, but the bulls need a break above 103. Euro-yen (139.10) is pushed to the level of 140 to the euro's weakness. Now traders take a break after contracting a range of 138-140.
Pound (1.6811) trying to get rid of the congestion zone, but it is still within the previous week. Keep an eye out for the big move and 1.6885 1.6690 signals. The trend could cancel down up soon.
Aussie (0.9351) hitting major trendline resistance 0.9365 last 3 days but extensively remain closed 0.92 0.94 in the area. The Bulls are above 0.9400 0.9365 immediately or bears may try to push the price up again.
The dollar-rupee (59.20) repair supported 59.00 59.00 levels as expected and a sideways range-45 may continue at the second session and we may see more rallies, the area is 59.45 peaked.
INTEREST RATES
Yield spreads steps toward the dollar one of the G3.
The German yield (5 v, 10 v 0.40% 1.37%) levels of the day before yesterday, moved slightly on the inside is generally reduced. In spite of this, we see good support at 1.20% 10 Yr., it market for some time to reach those levels, but without breaking below may not be easy.
Revenues from peripheral States of Europe are trending lower, if you look at Italy and Spain. Toni E-4 of the 10 Yr bond yield 1.48 percent in the composite is 1.61%, days before a meeting of the ECB in the past week. Germany and the United States between the 2 Yr spread (-0.37%) has broken below the long-term suppor-0.34%, and Germany and the United States, the 10 Yr spread (-1.27%) less than the Euro-dollar is accelarating (1.3590) pulling with it.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.00%) is also shifted sharply in June, 1.86%, but you might encounter resistance close to the current level. A good rise last 2.10%, it may be necessary to pull the dollar-yen (102.39) 103 past.

India and the United States to produce the 10 Yr spread (5.93%) has fallen sharply in the last week or so RBI after the meeting, but the dollar-rupee has not moved down despite the huge investments into India FII bonds. However, to continue the trend of the spread, the lower to 5.75 percent in the coming weeks.

Forex Knowledge 9 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 9 JUNE 2014 currency Report.



The US payrolls data, Japanese growth data and Chinese Trade data all beat the expectations and created a very positive sentiment for all the markets this morning.
The long-term Bull markets Dow (16924.28, +0.52%) is extending the rise towards 17000-200 as expected but if any correction doesn't emerge from 17000-200 soon, the bulls may generate more momentum to push the index up to 17400-600. The Dax (9987.19, +0.40%) keeps testing the 10000 levels but the last correction implies long term bullish strength, which looks strong enough to push it up to 10300-400 as long as it stays above 9800-700.
The long-term Bear markets - The Nikkei (15161.71, +0.56%) is trying to push its upper boundary but may find it difficult to break above 15200-400 immediately. Profit booking may emerge in this area of 15200-400 though the Double Top is negated. The Shanghai (2039.98, +0.49%) keeps trading in the range of 1990-2080 in a base-building process but keep an eye on 2010 & 2060 for early signals.
The long-term Bull market - Nifty (7583.40, +1.46%) rallied to 7550+ as BankNifty joined the part too as expected and not it faced the last long term resistance in 7600-40. A 2-3 days closing above 7640 may bring a vertical rise towards 8000-8200, even 8500 would not be impossible. But a failure around these levels would mean fall towards 7300-200 again.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1252.88) has risen from 1240 levels but while within the 1240-1260 zone, we cannot negate the danger of a fall towards 1225. However, a break above 1260 (if seen) may take it higher to 1280. Note that it has bounced from support near 1240.48 on the weekly.
Silver (19.04) is in an overall downtrend within which may move up towards 19.4-19.5 in the near term while above 19.
Nymex WTI (102.78) had bounced from 101.6 levels last week but the correction possibly is not over yet as it is heading towards 102.94 from where it may see yet another fall towards 101.5-101before a fresh rise begins. Brent (108.65) after bouncing from 107.76 is stable for now. Bearish pressure still remains while below 109.5 and it may consolidate within 108.5-109 for a couple of sessions. Long term target remains near 111-112.
Copper (3.0470) had the last leg of its short term rally last week and decided to resume its longer term down trend coming back to earlier levels of 3.07-3.00. breaking the support near 3.07 it may see levels of 3-2.95 in the coming sessions.
FOREX
Euro consolidation after the sharp bottom creation has kept most of the currencies quiet but weakness is emerging in Dollar against the EM currencies too. Please note, except Euro, the other major currencies are yet to break out above their respective ranges but whenever they do, Dollar may crash much more.
Euro (1.3644) is in our anticipated corrective mode after creating the major bottom at 1.35. At the end of this correction, it may head higher towards 1.3750-3800.
Dollar-Yen (102.52) is trading close to the upper end of the 9 week long range of 101-103. The strength remains intact above 101.95-85 but the Dollar bulls need a break above 103. The Euro-Yen (139.87) tested 138.70 levels before rebounding to 140 levels on the back of immense volatility in Euro against Dollar. It is taking the shape of a Triangle, which if correct, may push it up to 141.50 levels.
Pound (1.6807) is trying to break out of the congestion zone but it is still contained inside the previous week range. Keep an eye on 1.6690 and 1.6885 for major move signals. The trend may reverse from down to up soon.
The Aussie (0.9351) is very close to a major trendline resistance at 0.9365 but broadly it remains stuck in the range of 0.92-0.94 for now with no clear short term directional clues. Only a break of this range of 0.92-0.94 may produce any meaningful moves.
Dollar-Rupee (59.17) has consolidated in a very narrow range on Friday but may open weak today. The bullish momentum would weaken below the support of 59.00-58.90 but still, only below 58.80-75, a retest of the 58.40-30 levels could be expected.
INTEREST RATES
Lower yields all around except for the USA where there is a slight uptick.
Although the US NFP (+217K) came in little lower than the expected 219K, US Yields are trading higher. The 5Yr (1.67%) and 10Yr (2.61%) had bounced well last week and may be able to remain in positive territory if data does not come out too weak. Retail Sales (Thursday) is the next release to be watched.
European yields are trading lower with a sharp dip in the German 10Yr to 1.35% from levels of 1.43% and 1.40% earlier last week. The 5Yr (0.37%) is seeing a steeper fall and seems headed for important Support at 0.30%.
BOJ is the next big central bank meeting on Friday this week and its a given that policy will remain loose and accomodative especially in the wake of the consumption tax increase.

In India, there are already noises about whether the RBI will bow to the market forces that are driving the 10Yr Yield (8.51%) lower. As there is room for the 10Yr to fall towards 8.25% and even 8.0% in the coming weeks/ months, there may be pressure on the RBI to lower rates going forward.

Forex Knowledge 6 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 6 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


The ECB took the first steps towards monetary policy loosening, but not anything surprising or unexpected move the market in a major way. Most of the markets are slightly positive without a strong trend.
The Dow (16836.11, + 0.59%) shot up to test the contracting authority in the area is 16800-900 top end as expected. This may not extend higher than the 17,000-200, but there is one should be wary of again. Dax (9947.83, + 0.21%) of tests in the 10,000 levels but still looks like an irregular flat correction, which in the long term, the rising power, which seems to be strong enough to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (15076.44,-0.02%) is fading in the 15100-150 as expected and may have created a double top 15140 levels. A short term fix here would be normal and even healthy for the Bulls. Shanghai (2035.87,-0.25%) marketed between 1990-2080 for a base-building process but keep an eye on the 2010 & 2060 early signs.
Nifty (7474.10, + 0.97%) broke down and ended before the 7450 us bulls, as of yesterday. We can expect the 7500-50 soon now, especially when BankNifty manages to get more than 50 15420. 'S any dip in support of expected 7410 7390.
COMMODITIES
Commodities as a whole had a consolidative (gold) or weak (oil, copper), this week and saw a little weak in the coming week.
Gold (1254) confirms this week after has dropped sharply: o last week. Search for 1225 next week. Gold is the weak Euro (gold-Euro 918) and silver (gold black agate Garnet 65.69). Silver (19.06) itself is a long term structural downtrend but will pick up towards the long-term resistance of opportunities at 19.40 in the near future.
Interesting to WTI has shifted a little bit of gold this week, and may rise a bit next week to keep the dollar price of WTI (102.43) near term pressure test 101, maybe even 100. The longer term trend is still bullish, paragraph 110. Brent (108.90) has decreased from 111 to this whole week. However, it will bounce from 107.77 yesterday, a long term trendline support on a weekly basis, candles. It is therefore the very rise of 111-112, again in coming weeks.
Since March, after rising from 2.8770 copper (3.0870) is coming in two weeks to review the long term downtrend from 3.80 (February 13). A break below, however, it is necessary to establish the immediate support to 3.07.
FOREX
The ECB communicates QE coming in the near future in some form. But the surprise is the lack of led to a very sharp recovery at the beginning of the euro and the dollar index in the interim. Please note, except for the euros other currencies still erupt over their respective areas, but when they do, the dollar could crash a lot.
EUR (1.3661) tested the long-term aid of 1.35 to make a great base for the month. After the sharp bounce signals a reversal and a 2-3 day's consolidation, it may head more toward 1.3750-3800.
Dollar-yen (102.36) takes after the break to get to our original goal of 102.75 103.00 and now can not even 50. Still remains strong in the support area 101.95-85. Euro-yen (139.83) tested the levels of 1.38.70 before rebounding on the back of the huge volatility in the level of 140 to the Euro against the dollar. It takes shape of triangle, which if true, could push 141.50 level.
Pound (1.6812) trying to get out of its rut, but it is still within the previous week. Keep an eye out for the big move and 1.6885 1.6690 signals. The trend could cancel down up soon.
Aussie (0.9331) is great, but, generally, the trendline resistance 0.9365 is stuck with the 0.92 0.94 territory now no obvious short-term directional pointers. Just break these 0.92 0.94 can produce any meaningful moves.
Dollar-rupee (59.33) may open weak today after the dollar index started yesterday. Immediate support for 59.00 58.90 below which should be the watch-bullish momentum would weaken. Just below the in-58.40 58.80-75 retest 30 levels should be expected.
INTEREST RATES
Confused on the bond in the world market has a lot of diversification, which can lead to good movements in currencies.
The ECB will make the banks pay for the 0.1%, if they want to keep money overnight. But it also lends them a cheap fixed rate for 8 years, starting to give undertakings. The market is the acclaimed Draghi, sending yields lower (German 10 Yr of 1.40% compared to 1.43 percent yesterday in the morning), and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.90%. Spanish 10 Yr (2.82%) is not shifted down a lot though and has a 1.42 percent higher than the German 10 Yr; as of yesterday, there is a long term support near current levels, that does not degrade easily.
Raghu Border still the darling of the global bond investors. India's 10 Yr India has now dropped 8.53% and 8.25% applied to much lower levels of close to or even lower than that. India and the United States for 10 Yr spread (5.95%) 6.02%, and may be subject to 5.75% in the next few days/weeks.
This is a great development and the rupee.

US yields (2.58%) is a tiny bit smaller than the day before, but the crucial 2.50% above the level of support.

Forex Knowledge 5 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 5 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


All markets are in quiet mode. The biggest trigger is now a political decision of the ECB of today. Wait until the silence of the meet and an unstable environment.
The Dow (16737.53, + 0.09%) has traded the narrow 80 points in the last three sessions, and can explode soon. Keep an eye on the downside and 16800 16400-900 explosive breakout of different upside down. Dax (9926.67, + 0.07%) there is a small correction, but the bullish momentum remains unchanged above the 9,800-700 support area and the long-term uptrend appears to be strong enough to Push 10300-400.
The Nikkei (15077.22, + 0.06%), a struggling area of 15100-150 as expected. A short term fix here would be normal and even healthy for the Bulls. Shanghai (2023.22,-0.08%) has come down in 2060-65, as expected, and the sideways move in 1990 to 2080 can continue a little at the base of the development process.
Nifty (7402.25, 0.18%) used a very flat in the session, but the choice is clear now. Be the bull immediately above that, but remain cautious until 7450 breakout. We look forward to a new record above 7450 to 7500 and fast enough, but below the 7450, tied to the region, the movement can continue.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1243.77) will remain for now at lower levels around 1240. It may be at risk of poverty continue to fall if the ECB cut interest rates, which, in turn, may add to the u.s. dollar. While the above 1240, 1240-1260, may continue to consolidate sideways for the regions, but it can be pushed down to fall below 1230 1240-1225. In the short term looks bearish and the overall downtrend.
Silver (18.80) is trading lower but before the crucial support close to 18.5. You can select either remain within, or 18.5-19 varied from drops still to test levels at 18.5-18: 00. Gold-Silver ratio (66.18) is stable, and is now in the area and can continue as 66.9 65.75 more sessions. In the short term looks bearish.
Copper (3.0910) tumbled heavily in the news that the Chinese authorities are investigating the use of loans, which can damage the metal demand. Is this an indication of future repair? Or it will bounce back to enlarge the 3.10 to preserve the last uptrend? You need to look at a couple of sessions with a confirmation. The note is broken, but the channel support almost 3.10 tests of long-term support to near current levels on a daily basis.
Brent (108.24) is a correction phase now, which can extend to 107.83-107 on the downside if it breaks the 108. After the bounce number 109-110 to take back to the targeting of 112 in the long term. Failure to do so may Ricochet 108-107.33 (if it occurs) to take it down to the level of the 107-106. Note that it is the last of the correction phase ends in the long term, a contraction that began in May2012.
Nymex WTI (102.40) is interrupted by almost 102-103 levels decide on its strengthening. It needs to rise above the rest ranged from 104.5 to 102.95 within 102-103 of may remain in the a couple of the sessions. Support almost 102 still keep the uptrend continues.
FOREX
Almost all the major pairs trade like zombies, Waiting anxiously for the ECB's decision is the stimulus coming or not? Or to facilitate the steps? Today all couples can break sharply as they correspond to the regions. Beware of false breakouts.
EUR (1.3598) precariously is tested to support the region in the last 6-7 1.3590-70 sessions, expect the ECB's next. The Breakout area 1.3570 1.3650 can determine the direction in the short term, although a significant trend.
Dollar-yen (102.56) takes after the break to get to our original goal of 102.75 103.00 and now can not even 50. Euro-yen (139.45) has already pulled out of 140, as expected. The fall would be a break below 139.00 139.30 deeper.
Pound (1.6746) is stuck in a small selection of 1.6690 1.6790 for over a week now. This area can be broken today, and take a dip in the 1.6670-20 cannot be ruled out. But it remains to be seen if the last hope the Bulls 1.66 remains protected or not.
Aussie (0.9277) remains closed 0.92 0.94 territory now no obvious short-term directional pointers. Just break these 0.92 0.94 can produce any meaningful moves. The second test 0.9215 0.92 can mean a corrective mode.
Bullish momentum dollar rupee (59.33) remains unchanged above 59.20 as it gets very close to our target area 59.50-75. 59.10 59.20-17 and still supports-05. The larger repair signaled just below 59.20 hiatus.
INTEREST RATES
The ECB's meeting today. German 10 Yr (1.43%) is to see a little bit of rise from the level of near the middle of may (1.33%), presumably a bit of position squaring ahead of the ECB's decisions. But the rest of the yield curve suggests a less pronounced going forward. Toni E-4 and E-7-10 yr yield has risen a little more than a composite of a couple of weeks, but the general trend is still downward. It said Spain-German 10 Yr spread (1.44 percent) to test the long-term trendline support levels 0% since 2007, which can easily break coming up.
All in all, it is difficult to assess the impact of the ECB's activities in the market today.
Remarkably, the U.S. produces all bounced sharply this week after it broke the crucial support level last week, and have for a while. 5-v (1.63%) is seen as particularly steep climb. But is the current bounce as invalid as a break below the support last week? Or the hundreds continue to rise? You need to look at for a few days.

In India, 10 Yr India (8.59%) is oriented less now. Cut out the SLR is seen as potentially a big deal. Technically, now 10 Yr may trend lower in the coming weeks. This is a big change from the previous expectations (including ours), higher return on investment. India and the United States for 10 Yr spread (6.02%) can also be another 25bp. could attract good FII.

Forex Knowledge 3 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 3 JUNE 2014 currency Report.



There was literally no change in the US or European markets or even in most of the Asian markets, but our domestic Indices like Nifty enjoyed a great rally ahead of the RBI policy today. The implication of this Policy announcement has multifold implications. Watch out.
The lack of bullish momentum and a contracting range in Dow (16743.63, +0.16%) despite the higher highs and lows can keep the bulls a bit anxious. Keep an eye on 16400 on the downside and 16800-900 on the upside for an explosive breakout beyond this contracting range. The Dax (9950.12, 0.07%) is taking a pause near the minor resistance at 9985-10050 but the major uptrend looks strong enough to push it up to 10300-400.
The Nikkei (15031.23, +0.64%) is getting very close to our target area of 15200-300 as expected, where a short term correction can be expected. Some profit booking may emerge at 15200-300. The Shanghai (2041.67, +0.12%) faced good selling pressure near 2060-65 as expected but the sideways move in the broader range of 1990-2080 may continue for some more time in a base-building process.
Nifty (7362.50, +1.83%) rally to 7360-65, though completely in line with our expectation, has made the picture very unclear for this morning which will be resolved only after the RBI policy. If the 7400-50 area is crossed easily, then the correction is finished and new highs near 7600 can be expected. But a failure near 7400-50 may produce a downmove in a Triangular pattern. No clear bias right now.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1245.56) is trading on lower levels and may either target support near 1230-1225 or remain ranged in the 1240-1260 region. While Silver (18.835) has bounced from just above support near 18.5 and may range in the 18.5-19 region for a couple of sessions before breaking above 19.00. Overall trend remains down. Gold-Silver ratio (65.95) is stable for now within the 66.9-65.75 region but looks bearish in the near term targeting 65.5.
Copper (3.1535) is on an eventual rise towards 3.20-3.25 with decrease in momentum. No major movement expected for now while it is in a near term uptrend.
Brent (108.94) is falling sharply and may test support near 108.5 which if holds may help Brent to bounce back to 110, else the correction may extend downwards to 108-107.5 before starting a fresh rise again.
Nymex WTI (102.51) has also been falling and may test 102 levels for now. A failure to bounce back from 102 may push it down to 101.9-101.5-100 levels. But overall trend remains up with a target of 104.5-105-105.22 on the longer term.
FOREX
Dollar rectified the mixed signal to a clear signal by gaining against almost all the major currencies now. It would be better to follow the Strong Dollar for now until a clear reversal signal emerges.
Euro (1.3602) has been retesting the lows as the ECB is against any kind of strength in Euro. The German CPI coming low is not helping Euro to rise higher either. Unless 1.3640 is broken immediately, the support area of 1.3590-70 runs a risk of breaking down.
Dollar-Yen (102.37) has broken above 102.15 as expected and now it may rise towards the next resistance at 102.75-103.00, even 103.50. The Euro-Yen (139.25) has nearly achieved our initial target of 139.40 but the area of concern for the bulls begins here in the region of 139.40-140.00. Keep an eye for any sudden bear attack.
The weakness and loss of bullish momentum in Pound (1.6746) is pronounced and now a dip to 1.6670-20 can't be ruled out. But it remains to be seen if the last hope for the bulls at 1.66 remains protected or not.
The Aussie (0.9249) remains stuck in the range of 0.92-0.94 for now with no clear short term directional clues. Only a break of this range of 0.92-0.94 may produce any meaningful moves.
Dollar-Rupee (59.15) has broken above 29.20 but could not sustain above it. Still the bullish bias remains intact above 59.02-58.97 and the targets of 59.50-75 remains on course if the RBI doesn't reverse the picture.
INTEREST RATES
RBA and RBI meetings today. Both are expected to not do anything today. The difference is, the first is expected not to raise rates, the second not to lower them. Both would prefer a weaker currency, though.
But, as suggested yesterday, the RBI could announce some measures on the Rupee side. There could be some more relaxation of Gold import restrictions or allowing FIIs to hedge/ trade on the Exchange Futures. Very important will be the RBI's outlook on CPI. The last release was 8.59% and the trend is steadily higher. Given that Forward Premia (6-mths 8.19%) have been moving up over the last couple of weeks, there may be pressure on the 10Yr GOI (8.67%) to rise as well.
Over in Europe, the ECB is keen to talk down the Euro and the German CPI also came in lower than expected. So, the market expects is looking to Draghi really "do what it takes" this time to save Europe from deflation. Lower interest rates/ some sort of QE.

The Bank of England meeting is also due Thursday and the Bank is resisting raising rates.