Forex Knowledge 30 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 30 APRIL 2014 currency Report.


EQUITIES
Today is big day for various kinds of data. BOJ will start the day with its rate decision and statement. Then Germany will release Retail Sales data with Italy releasing its CPI data too. This will be capped off by US GDP data and the FED decision, widely expected to continue the $10 Billion QE cut. All these may affect all the financial segments for the next few sessions.
The Dow (16535.37, +0.53%) is close to the upper end of the 10 week long range of 16000-16600 once again. But the bulls still need a new high above 16650 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.
The Dax (9584.12, +1.46%) shot up sharply after two days of loss. This rangebound movement inside the broad range of 9050-9720 may continue for some more time before a breakout but a breakout above 9720 may produce a very sharp rally to 10000-10200.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2024.04, +0.18%) is enjoying the second 30 points bounce in the entire fall from 2147 to 1997. Now only an extension above 2030 may take it to 2050 levels, otherwise the fall may resume again. 2080 stands as the trend decider zone.
The Nikkei (14321.60, +0.23%) has reached close to our target zone of 14200 with the risk of falling further to 14000-13900. The trend remains weak below 14675-700. But a break above 14700 will take it higher to 15000. Bias is neutral now.
Regarding the Nifty (6715.25, -0.68%), the expected bounce never came and it closed near the day low of 6709 and looks ready to hit 6685-6650 by the weekend. The midday bounce failed exactly at our resistance area of 6655-6685. Right now the most the bulls can hope for is a bounce towards 6685 if they manage to find buyers from this support area of 6685-6650.
COMMODITIES
Metals are in an overall downtrend while the Oil market looks bullish.
Gold (1294.89) is trading low as the resistance near 1306 holds well for now. It may range in the 1290-1300 regions targeting 1280 on the downside until a break above 1309-1310 is seen. Note crucial support coming up in the 1286-1290 while within the overall downtrend.
Silver (19.441) is falling towards 19.24-19.00 from where it may bounce back to 20-20.5. But if it breaks below 19 it may face the danger of a fall to 18.5.
Copper (3.0750) is trading low as resistance near 3.139 is holding well for now. It may fall a little more towards 3.05 before rising towards 3.15 again. Overall near term uptrend persists.
Brent (108.62) bounced from support near 107.86 but while below 109 we cannot negate an initial fall to 107-106.5 before rising to 110-112. Near term looks bullish.
Nymex WTI (100.42) is trading lower nearing 100 which if breaks may push prices towards 98. However, if it bounces from 100 or levels above, it may target 103 and further 104-105. Overall it is in an uptrend.
FOREX
Dollar Index (79.8020) is stuck in the narrow range of 79.50-80.00 for the last two weeks and the broad range of 79.25-80.50 may remain in force for some more time. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will reverse from down to up. A break above 80.15 would be an initial sign of strength.
The Euro (1.3805) is trading inside 1.3770/85-1.3880 for the last two weeks and this narrow range may break this week giving birth to a trending move towards either 1.3655 on the lower end or 1.4000-30 on the upper end.
Dollar-Yen (102.35) is coming down after facing rejection from the resistance of 102. It has managed to hold above 101.50-20 so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. We keep watching the long term support at 101.00-100.50 for major moves.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.32), contrary to our expectation, came down even after breaking above 142. This false breakout increases the possibility of testing the major support at 141-140 now, below which a major breakdown would be signaled.
Pound (1.6825) is trading inside the narrow range of 1.6750-1.6870 just like the other major currencies. To reach 1.7000-50 in the next 1-2 weeks, it must break above 1.6870. The short term momentum remains intact above 1.6730-1.6695.
Aussie (0.9281) remains in a weak state and facing selling pressure on all rallies now till it manages to break above 0.9380-0.9400 but it may try to bounce to 0.9330 levels now above which the initial signal for strength may come. Major supports remain at 0.9160-30.
Dollar-Rupee (60.42) remains in a weak state with no reversal signals visible. But the RBI may be buying at the lower levels and it remains to be seen the buyers? activity at the support area of 60.20, that may be the trend decider for the next few sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr yield (2.69%) has fallen below 2.70% and is vulnerable to a fall towards 2.60% or else it can target 2.85% if it breaks above 2.75%. The US 5Yr yield (1.73%) is trading in the resistance zone of 1.73%-1.75% and may rise to 1.80% in the near term on a break above 1.75%. The two day FOMC Meeting will conclude today and we may see yet another cut in the bond purchases by $10 Billion.
The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.26%) remained unchanged and is testing resistance at current levels. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.16%) rose yesterday while the Euro (1.3805) came off from the high of 1.3878. The German 10Yr yield (1.50%) remained unchanged and is testing resistance at current levels. It is vulnerable to a fall to 1.45% while below 1.50%. A break above 1.50% can take it higher towards 1.60%.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.07%) has come down again to test the support near 2.06% moving in perfect co relation with the Dollar-Yen (102.35) which also dropped. The Japan 10Yr yield (0.62%) remained unchanged and testing resistance at current levels. A break above the current resistance can take it towards 0.65%. The BOJ Meeting has just concluded with no change in its main policy rates.

The Indo- US 10Yr spread (6.11%) has dropped below the support near 6.15% with the fall in Dollar-Rupee (60.4250). The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.83%) also dropped further and is expected to maintain a range of 8.75% - 9.00%. A break beyond this range will give us further direction.

Forex Knowledge 29 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 29 APRIL 2014 currency Report.


SHARES OF THE
16448.74, + 0.53%), Dow (tested the complete 10-week trade between 16,300 rebounding 16,000 16600 as expected. The Bulls are still a new high 16650 reaffirms the uptrend.
Dax (9446.36, + 0.48%) fell to a lower once again, after failing to break above our resistance to 9720. Rangebound movement, 9050-9720 wide may continue for some time before the breakout.
Asia-pac, Shanghai (2006.47, + 0.15%) broke less than 2050-35 support and can rise to the level of 1985-75-50 in 2035. will act as good durability now above trend for the decider. 2080
The Nikkei (14288.23, + 0.00%) has reached near our 14200 14000 13900 from the target zone – the risk of facing selling pressure after strong resistance 14675-700 to weaken a little bit yen. The trend of a weak below 14675-700. But the above is greater than 15,000 to 14,700. Bias is neutral.
(6761.25,-0.32) only the strength of the return on investment (ROI) and a nifty, until the above 6820 buyers remain subdued. In Pause mode, we might get another 40-60-point rise before the first significant drop in the will. As mentioned earlier, to keep watch on 6740 20. This sharper correction in the support area has brought the possibility of a sideways move 6650-6850 in the next few days.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1295.47) came from 1306.4 but is trading the central level within the General downtrend of 1295-1310. The change can be triggered by sharply above 1310 1400 to 1280 on the downside.
Silver (19.54) remains crucial, and there are currently almost ranged between levels. It can reach 20-20.5 19 but the break below 19-18.5 may trigger a sharp decline of 16.5 to 16.
Copper (3.1080) became a little bit of the channel resistance near 3.139 on a daily basis, but more than 3, it can be used to target the 3.15-3.17 in the near future.
Brent (108.25) dropped sharply on the news that Libya is ready to resume oil exports and supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia seems to be imminent. If the decline continues, can be applied to 106.5 on the downside from where it can again rise toward the 110-112.
Nymex WTI (100.88) is stable now, testing near the crucial support and we will see if this keeps rising 100.76 targetting 104-105 in the near future. But the break below 100 (if seen) can be pushed to 98-96. Notice the uptrend after Jan14.
FOREX
The dollar index (79.6560) is stuck with 79.50 80.00 80.50 79.25 narrow for two weeks and may be valid for some time. Only the above 80.55-60, a trend that translates from down to up. It would be the first sign of the strength of the above 80.15.
EUR (1.3860) is trading within a narrow range for two weeks and 1.3785 1.3880 may break this week to give birth to the trends toward either end of 1.4000-1.3755 to the top of the 30 or less.
Dollar-yen (102.50) is testing resistance at 103.00 102.75 which continues to climb-40 is possible. It has managed to keep above the 101.50-20 so far, stick around for the 10-week-long extensive 101-104. We keep a watch on the long-term support of 101.00 100.50-large shipments.
Euro-yen (142.08) 140.00 142.00 erupted in various large directional transmission and can now reach out to 143.00 144.00 145.50-25 to begin with and then can not be ruled out.
Pound (1.6813) is trading within a narrow 1.6750-1.6870 as other major currencies. To get to the 1.7000-50 1-2 weeks must be above 1.6870. In the short-term, the momentum will be maintained above 1.6730 1.6695.
Aussie (0.9238) calculates the look continues to be weak and may face selling pressure all the demonstrations for now until you dissolve 0.9380 above 0.9400. The large supports are 0.9160-30.
Dollar-rupee (60.6450) returns to 60.40 support. The strength of the Euro can make EM currencies dollar & rupee retest support area once again, and if it is intact, then bounce to 60.40 60.80-90. But it still may take a break down 60.40 60.20. Either the probability is 50%.
INTEREST RATES
US 10 Yr yield (2.71%) has risen above the 2.70% to 2.85% in the short term, and if it breaks down more than 2.75 percent. US 5 Yr yield (1.75%) saw a slight rise and 10-5 Yr yield spread rose 0.96 percent. At the two-day FOMC meeting ends tomorrow, and they are expected to keep the key policy interest rates unchanged and cut the bond purchases another $ 10 billion.
Germany and the United States (-2%) and the spread of Yr 10 yr 0.26 (-1.22%) remained stable yesterday after the Euro (1.3860) rose to test the resistance of the 1.3865 1.3785 near the ceiling. German 10 Yr yield (1.50%) rose and is testing at the current level. Is prone to fall 1.45% to less than 1.50%. Per above 1.50% 1.60% last more.
The United States and Japan in 10 years spread (2.11%) returns to support almost 2.06 percent expect to move in perfect co. in relation to the dollar-yen (102.50), which also introduced the bounce. Japan 10 Yr yield (0.61%) is testing resistance at its current level. Pause before the current resistance will take it towards a 0.65 per cent. The Japanese market is closed today. We have a meeting tomorrow and the Bank of Japan, it is expected that the BOJ will keep its key policy interest rates unchanged.

The Indo-US 10 Yr spread (6.18%) fell 6.15% bounce near the support. India's 10 Yr yield 8.86%), Indian (also has fallen. It can maintain different 8.75%-9.00%. After the break, this region offers us a new direction.

Forex Knowledge 28 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 28 APRIL 2014 currency Report.


STOCKS
There is a feeling of escalation coming in the old stand-off between USA and Russia as Russia faces the threat of new sanctions. The Asian markets have begun this week in a stuttering mode in light of this development.
The Dow (16361.46, -0.85%) finished the 10th week of trading in the range of 16000-16600. The weak close signals a move to 16300-200 again as the bulls still need a new high above 16630 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.
The Dax (9401.55, -1.54%) dropped lower once again after failing to break above our resistance of 9720. This rangebound movement inside the broad range of 9050-9720 may continue for some more time before a breakout.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2012.61, -1.17%) broke below our support of 2050-35 and may reach the 1985-75 levels once again. The 2035-50 area is going to act as a good resistance now above which 2080 stands as the trend decider zone.
The Nikkei (14262.71, -1.15%) has reached close to our target zone of 14200 with the risk of falling further to 14000-13900 after facing selling pressure from the strong resistance of 14675-700 with the Yen weakening a bit more. The trend remains weak below 14675-700. But a break above 14700 will take it higher to 15000. Bias is neutral now.
The Nifty (6782.75, -0.85%) has triggered our short term stoploss in its first sign of weakness. But please note, as long as the major support band at 6740-20 is not broken, the main trend remains firmly up. Only a break below 6720 will signal a weakness of the major trend and a deeper cut towards 6650-6600.This sharper correction has brought the possibility of a sideways move between 6650-6850 for the next few days, which can’t be ruled out in the light of the upcoming General Election result.

COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver look bearish while Copper, Brent and WTI Crude are potentially bullish.
Gold (1304.86) is trading just below crucial resistance near 1307.24 which if holds may lead to some ranged moves in the 1300-1305 region before rising towards 1310. Note that it is testing crucial resistance levels on the weekly and the daily line charts. Overall downtrend persists.
Silver (19.7) continues to range sideways testing 19.5-19.66 levels. Currently testing resistance, there are possibilities of a fall to 19.5-19; else could range sideways for a few more sessions. Gold-Silver ratio (66.209) has been ranged in the broad 65-67 region and may target 67-67.5 in the coming sessions.
Copper (3.1335) has risen and is targeting resistance near 3.15. Copper-Gold ratio (5.16) is stable for now but may fall a little more toward 5 indicating a rise in Copper against in the near term.
Brent (109.81) seems to have slowed its rising momentum entering into a ranged pattern still targeting 111-112 on the upside while WTI Crude (100.88) has fallen sharply and is now testing crucial support near 100.76. If this holds we may see a rise again targeting 104-105 in the near term. Brent-WTI spread (9.48) is on a rally and is nearing resistance at 10.
FOREX
The currencies must break beyond the narrow range they continue to trade in for the last two weeks and till then absolutely no change would be visible.
Dollar Index (79.7960) is stuck in the narrow range of 79.50-80.00 for the last two weeks and the broad range of 79.25-80.50 may remain in force for some more time. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will reverse from down to up. A break above 80.15 would be an initial sign of strength.
The Euro (1.3825) is trading inside 1.3785-1.3865 for the last two weeks and this narrow range may break this week giving birth to a trending move towards either 1.3755 on the lower end or 1.4000-30 on the upper end.
Dollar-Yen (102.12) has been pushed down a bit by the resistance at 102.75-103.00 as expected but without any serious momentum. It has managed to hold above 101.50-20 so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. We keep watching the long term support at 101.00-100.50 for major moves.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.16) must break beyond the range of 140.00-142.00 for a major directional move. A breakdown would take it to 138 and then 136 but a breakout on the upside could take it to 144.00-145.50.
Pound (1.6788) is trading inside the narrow range of 1.6750-1.6850 just like the other major currencies. To reach 1.7000-50 in the next 1-2 weeks, it must break above 1.6850. The short term momentum remains intact above 1.6730-1.6695.
Aussie (0.9284) is in a weak state right now and may face selling pressure on all rallies now till it manages to break above 0.9380-0.9400. Major supports are at 0.9160-30.
Dollar-Rupee (60.60) corrected to test our major support zone of 60.60-40. A bounce from here will keep the uptrend intact. A few days of sideways range between 60.40-61.00 is also possible.
INTEREST RATES
We have the FOMC and the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting this week. The US Fed will continue to cut its Bond purchase while the BOJ is expected to maintain its Monetary Policy.
The US 10Yr yield (2.68%) dipped further taking the 10-5Yr yield spread (0.94%) lower. The US 5Yr yield (1.74%) remained stable. A break above the resistance at 1.75% and the 5Yr can rise further towards 1.85%. The 10Yr on the other hand is vulnerable to a fall towards 2.65% while below 2.70%.
The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.27%) and the 10Yr spread (-1.20%) are expected to be ranged between -0.30% to -0.20% and -1.2% to -1.1% respectively as the Euro (1.3825) remains ranged between 1.3785 -1.3865. The German 10Yr yield (1.48%) has fallen below 1.50% and is vulnerable to a fall to 145% while below 1.50%.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.06%) is currently testing support at current levels and can bounce from here. The Dollar-Yen (102.12) is down and can see a bounce from the support near 102. The Japan 10Yr yield (0.62%) is testing resistance at current levels. A break above the current resistance can take it towards 0.65%.
The Indo- US 10Yr spread (6.23%) bounced from the support near 6.15%. The Indian 10 Yr GOI yield (8.89%) rose contrary to our expectation and can now target 9.00%.
DATA TODAY
No major data release today.

FRIDAY'S DATA
No major data release friday.

Forex Knowledge 25 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 25 APRIL 2014 currency Report.


The deadlock between the United States and Russia will continue and affect the price of wheat is on the higher side. The stock market in the world ex-Japan take this development as positive.
The Dow (16501.65, + 0.00%) trading sideways near the 16600 levels after rising again for the third time, the 16000 levels in 9 weeks. But the bulls still new high 16630 reaffirms the uptrend.
Dax (9548.68, + 0.05%) will not find it easy to break above 9720 than it looks like a nice variation to close it. It must reach the above item 9970 9720-10000. The weakness can be set below the 9400.
Asia-pac, 2059.58, + 0.12%), Shanghai (has found support for the second time in 2050-35 as expected and is trading sideways for the downside-2100 to 2050-35-15 in the last session, in accordance with our assessment of the upside-down.
14495.57, + 0.63%), Nikkei (faces selling pressure strong resistance 14675-700 to weaken a little bit yen. The trend is still weak below 14675-700 and previous 14200. But the above is greater than 15,000 to 14,700. Bias is neutral.
Nifty (6840.80, + 0.37%) has signaled its intention to go more toward the 6950-7000. Correction higher in the way should be limited to a 6800-6780 now. A sharper correction would bring an opportunity to move within the next few days, 6850 6650 sideways with a view of the future on the basis of the results of the general election. Today is the day to figure out the real power.
COMMODITIES
Copper and gold is on the rise and silver can confirm. Oil markets are potentially strong.
Gold (1292.41) is returned to the levels of support almost 1270 as it should and can now rise towards the 1300-1310 while still inside the overall downtrend.
Silver (19.57) ranged from the very area of 19.91 18.93 support almost 18.93 but cannot confirm a sideways a few times when the general areas of 19.0-20.0 downtrend. The Gold-Silver ratio (66.02) is recovered from a support almost sixty-five and can target to 67 in the next few weeks.
Copper (3.1160), as expected, has shown its first outbreak of 3.10 from last one month and if it maintains it can target the resistance near the 3.15-3.17 in the coming weeks. To rise above the 3.17 to launch a fresh uptrend.
Brent (110.34) has started a rally towards the resistance near the 112, though crude oil WTI (101.97) can now rise towards a 104-105 100.76 above. All in all, both are on the uptrend.
FOREX
Currencies continue to trade very narrow this whole week and therefore absolutely no change does not appear in the save the Aussie dollar, the rupee.
The dollar index (79.7560) 80.00 80.10 has struggled to close as expected. Wide 79.25-80, 50, may be valid for some time. Only the above 80.55-60, a trend that translates from down to up.
EUR (1.3835) trying to recover support from 1.3790-60 and the rally higher above the 1.3865. From a broader perspective of the great benefits is to break above 1.40, and at the same time, the dollar index is less than 79.
Dollar-yen (102.42) has been pushed a little resistance, as expected, but without serious 102.75 103.00 momentum. It has managed to keep above the 101.50-20 so far, stick around for the 10-week-long extensive 101-104. We keep a watch on the long-term support of 100.75-50 large shipments.
Euro-Yen Cross (141.70) will test our resistance to 141.65-90 140.50 139.50 after finding to buy support than expected. The above 141.65-143.50 142.00 can now take more toward the opposition.
Pound (1.6806) has ended in a small repair and again look to major uptrend. At the time, the 1.7000-50 1-2 weeks, because in the short-term, the momentum remains unchanged over 1.6730 10.
Aussie (0.9271) broke below 0.9300 test 0.9250 levels and may face selling pressure all the demonstrations for now until you dissolve 0.9380 above 0.9400. The great 0.91340-0.9200 supports are, and then to 30.
Dollar-rupee (61.07) gained 61.20 goal. The trend is still firmly at the top above 60.95. The next target is 61.35-50. Use any dip to get to long 60.60 (40).
INTEREST RATES
10-5 Yr yield spread (0.95%), contrary to the expectations of the United States has dropped to less than 10 support the u.s. Yr return (2.69%) fell further even though the 5 Yr yield (1.74%) moved a little bit. Break before the resistance rate of 1.75% and 5 Yr cannot continue to grow towards a 1.85 percent. 10 Yr and, on the other hand, is exposed to the decline towards the 2.70 2.65% below%.
Germany and the United States (-2%) and the spread of Yr 10 0.25 v (-1.15%) saw the rise of the Euro (1.3835) rose further. German 10 Yr yield (1.53%) is seen is a little more grown up. After the break the 1.55% and 10 Yr target the 1.60%.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr spread (2.06%) has come down to test the current levels of support and can bounce from here, along with the dollar-yen (102.41), which dropped a little bit and see the bounce 102 102.50 support zone. Japan 10 Yr yield (0.62%) is in place and is testing resistance at its current level. Pause before the current resistance will take it towards a 0.65 per cent.

The Indo-US 10 Yr spread (6.15%) remained unchanged at the current level, and test support, where you can see a bounce. India's 10 Yr India (8.85%) is stable, but can count on support from 8.75% to test almost before the bounce back to 9: 00% and after it.

Forex Knowledge 23 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 23 APRIL 2014 currency Report.


STOCKS
The Chinese PMI data from HSBC has come at 48.3, still below 50, which is not taken as a very encouraging sign for the Asian markets even when the US and the European markets are rising strongly.
The Dow (16514.37, +0.40%) has reached close to 16600 levels after bouncing back from 16000 levels for the third time in the last 9 weeks. But the bulls still need a new high above 16630 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.
The Dax (9600.09, +2.02%) crossed the resistance of 9450 in the strongest rally in quite a while. Now a break above 9720 may set it up for a target of 9970-10000.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2068.93, -0.19%) has found support in 2050-35 as expected and now may move sideways between 2050-35 on the downside and 2100-15 on the upside for the next few sessions.
The Nikkei (14470.54, +0.57%) is facing selling pressure from the strong resistance of 14675-700 with the Yen weakening a bit more. The trend remains weak below 14675-700 and we may see 14200 again.
The Nifty (6815.35, -0.03%) has signaled its intention to go higher towards 6950-7000. Any correction on the way to the higher levels should be limited to 6745-20 now. A sharper correction would bring the possibility of a sideways move between 6650-6850 for the next few days, which can’t be ruled out in the light of the upcoming General Election result. Our bias remains bullish for now.
COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver potentially weak while Copper can rise. Crude and Brent have paused but may resume its uptrend in the coming sessions.
Gold (1284.195) continues to fall targeting 1275-1270 while Silver (19.469) is stable at lower levels below 19.66. Gold may slightly bounce from 1277-1275 levels but overall the near term looks bearish. Silver if falls further may test support near long term support in the 19.00-18.5 zone.
Copper (3.047) has been consolidating since the beginning of Apr’14 and may continue so for some more sessions gearing up for further upmove. A rise towards 3.15 could only be confirmed above 3.07-3.08.
Brent (109.41) has paused in the last 2-3 sessions but while above 109, it may target 112. Overall longterm uptrend persists. WTI Crude (101.68) has fallen sharply but while it trades above 100.76 it may target 104-105 again. Crude-Gold ratio (0.792) has come off slightly from resistance and may fall a little towards 0.07 before rising further to 0.081-0.083.
FOREX
Absolutely no change is visible in most of the currencies except Aussie as they trade in a very narrow range for the last 2-3 sessions.
Dollar Index (79.84) has been struggling near 80.00-80.10 as expected and it may face more selling from 80.30 as well. The broad range of 79.25-80.50 may remain in force for some more time. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will reverse from down to up.
The Euro (1.3818) is trying to bounce from our support zone of 1.3790-60 and rally higher. From the broader perspective, for major gain it has to break above 1.40 and simultaneously Dollar Index must break below 79.
Dollar-Yen (102.51) has managed to hold above 101.50-20 so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. Now it is testing the resistance at 102.75-103.00 as expected and this resistance zone may push it down once again. We keep watching the long term support at 100.75-50 for major moves.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.65) is testing our resistance of 141.65-90 after finding buying support from 140.50-139.50 as expected. Now a break above 141.65-90 may take it higher towards the major resistance of 143.50.
Pound (1.6834) has finished the small correction and resumed its major uptrend in line with our expectation. It may reach 1.7000-50 in the next 1-2 weeks as the short term momentum remains intact above 1.6730-10.
Aussie (0.9312) is testing the lower end of the range of 0.93-0.94 it has been trading in for the last two weeks after the inflation rose less than expected. The bulls must respond right now from 0.93 levels, otherwise it may drop to 0.92. Our bias is neutral for the moment.
Dollar-Rupee (60.76) chose the bullish possibility and reached 60.89. Now the overall target is 61.20-35 but it may take a pause before reaching there. The short term bullish momentum remains intact above 60.60-40.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr yield (2.71%) and the 5Yr yield (1.73%) remained stable and are trading just below resistance at current levels. A break above 2.75% and 1.75% i.e. the respective resistances, we may see the yields rising further towards 2.85% and 1.85% in the near term. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.98%) has dipped a little as expected and may come down further to test support near 0.95%-0.96% before we see a bounce.
The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.27%) dropped below the immediate support at -0.25% and may now test the support near -0.32%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.18%) on the other hand saw a bounce from -1.23% (18-Apr-14) levels along with Euro (1.3818) which bounced from the 8-MA support on the 3 Day line charts. The German 10Yr yield (1.53%) saw a bounce from near the support at 1.50%. A break beyond 1.55% and the 10Yr can target 1.60%.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.10%) remained unchanged as Dollar-Yen (102.51) remained stable. The Japan 10-5Yr yield differential (0.42%) is unchanged and near the support zone of 0.40%-0.41%. The Japan 10Yr yield (0.61%) can target 0.65% on a bounce of the yield differential.
The Indo- US 10Yr spread (6.15%) remained stable. The Indian 10 Yr GOI yields (8.86%) were unchanged and can drop further to test the support near 8.75% before a bounce back to 9.00% and beyond.
DATA TODAY
1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST AU CPI
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.80 % ...Actual 0.6 %

9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 451 K ...Previous 440 K


DATA YESTERDAY
US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 4570 K ...Previous 4600 K ...Actual 4590 K

Forex Knowledge 22 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 22 APRIL 2014 currency Report.


STOCKS
The general sentiment in the global markets is positive today as the earnings are coming well and the weak Yen has boosted the Japanese Export to lift the ex-China Asian mood.
The Dow (16449.25, +0.25%) rose to our target of 16400-450 as expected after bouncing back from 16000 levels for the third time in the last 9 weeks. But the bulls still need a new high above 16630 to confirm the end of the correction and a resumption of the uptrend.
The Dax (9409.71, +0.99%) is close to the strong resistance of 6450 and the price action here may decide the short term trend. The long term uptrend will get damaged on a break below the major support zone of 9150-9050.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2061.11, -0.23%), contrary to our expectation, has failed to resume the uptrend and now may move sideways between 2050-35 on the downside and 2100-15 on the upside.
The Nikkei (14556.52, +0.30%) diluted the bearish momentum a bit after closing above 14350 last week and rose further to the strong resistance of 14675-700 with the Yen weakening a bit more. The current technical picture is somewhat muddy and the next 1-2 sessions may give the required clarity.
The Nifty (6817.65, +0.56%) registered a new high and signaled its intention to go higher towards 6950-7000. Any correction on the way to the higher levels should be limited to 6745-20 now. A sharper correction would bring the possibility of a sideways move between 6650-6850 for the next few days, which can’t be ruled out in the light of the upcoming General Election result. Our bias remains bullish for now.
COMMODITIES
Crude strong, Gold and Silver potentially weak, Copper can rise. Suggests industrial commodities have a hedge over financial commodities, which might be positive for overall growth.
Gold (1286.65) and Silver (19.35) are stable at lower levels today after having fallen yesterday. Gold is in danger of further decline towards 1270 initially, as mentioned yesterday. Such a dip, if seen, could also pull Silver down towards the long-term Support region of 19.00-18.50. The Gold-Silver ratio (66.495) can move up some more in the near term to test the Jul-13 high near 67.46.
WTI Crude Futures (104.25) continue to look bullish for a possible rise towards 108. Brent (109.85) also continues to be in a steep climb, targeting 112. We note that WTI Crude, in general, is looking strong as it is rising against Gold (Crude-Gold ratio 0.0810 is rising towards 0.0830) and Euro (Crude-Euro ratio 75.57 can rise towards 76.25+). That's something to be borne in mind for the near term at least.
Copper (3.05) continues to consolidate sideways. But, as mentioned yesterday, it seems to be preparing for a rise towards 3.15. A break above 3.07 is needed as confirmation.
FOREX
No real change in the currency markets but the Citi Economic Surprise Index may point to further bounce for the Dollar. A strong Dollar could be a reality when the ECB begins its own version of QE but we still wait for that to take place.
Dollar Index (79.96) has been struggling near 80.00-80.10 as expected and it may face more selling from 80.30 as well. The broad range of 79.25-80.50 may remain in force for some more time. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will turn from down to up.
The Euro (1.3795) is trying to bounce from our support zone of 1.3790-60 and rally higher. From the broader perspective, for major gain it has to break above 1.40 and simultaneously Dollar Index must break below 79.
Dollar-Yen (102.66) has managed to hold above 101.50-20 so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. Now it is testing the resistance at 102.75-103.00 as expected and this resistance zone may push it down once again. We keep watching the long term support at 100.75-50 for major moves.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.62) is testing our resistance of 141.65-90 after finding buying support from 140.50-139.50 as expected. Now a break above 141.65-90 may take it higher towards the major resistance of 143.50.
Pound (1.6796) has finished the small correction and resumed its major uptrend in line with our expectation. It may reach 1.7000-50 in the next 1-2 weeks as the short term momentum remains intact above 1.6730-10.
Aussie (0.9355) may trade in the range of 0.93-0.94 for some more time before making a decisive move. Bulls are attempting to push it higher from 0.9315 in line with our expectation. Our bias is neutral for the moment.
Dollar-Rupee (60.59) is facing two possibilities - (1) the upside gets over at yesterday’s high of 60.60 and the downside for 60.00 or lower opens and (2) Dollar Rupee breaks above 60.60 at today opening itself and extends the rise to 60.80-61.00. One of these two possibilities should be discarded today.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.71%) saw a slight rise while the 5Yr (1.72%) remained stable after the bounce from 2.63% and 1.64% in the previous session. Currently trading just below resistance at current levels the yields can target 2.75% and 1.75% on a break above the respective resistances. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.99%) has come up with the rise in the 10Yr but it may still come down further to test support near 0.95%-0.96% before we see a bounce.
The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.21%) saw a slight dip along with the Euro (1.3795) which also dropped and is testing the 8-MA support on the 3 Day line charts. The German 10Yr (1.51%) is stable and is trading just above the support at 1.50%. A range of 1.45%-1.55% can be expected for now. A break beyond this range will give us further direction.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.10%) remained unchanged and so did the Dollar-Yen (102.66) which remained stable near yesterday’s levels, showing perfect co-relation with the yield spread. The Japan 10-5Yr yield differential (0.42%) saw a slight bounce from the support zone of 0.40%-0.41% as reflected by the slight rise in the Japan 10Yr (0.61%). A further bounce and the yield can target 0.65%.
The Indo- US 10Yr spread (6.16%) has seen a small bounce from the support near 6.12%-6.13% as expected. The Indian 10 Yr GOI yields (8.86%) remained stable and can drop further to test the support near 8.75% before a bounce back to 9.00% and beyond.
DATA TODAY
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 4550 K ...Previous 4600 K

DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

Forex Knowledge 21 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 21 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

STOCKS
Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand markets are closed today. The other markets are trading nearly flat though the Japanese market is trying to shrug off a poor trade data and a weakening export growth.
The Dow (16408.54, -0.10%) rose to our target of 16400-450 as expected after bouncing back from 16000 levels for the third time in the last 9 weeks. But the bulls still need a new high above 16630 to confirm the end of the correction and a resumption of the uptrend.
The Dax (9409.71, +0.99%) is close to the strong resistance of 6450 and the price action here may decide the short term trend. The long term uptrend will get damaged on a break below the major support zone of 9150-9050.
In the Asia-pac, Shanghai (2096.13, -0.08%) is in a corrective mode after the recent rally but it is finding some buying emerging from 2090-80 as expected and may resume the uptrend for a target of 2170-80.
The Nikkei (14607.98, +0.63%) diluted the bearish momentum a bit after closing above 14350 last week and rose further to the strong resistance of 14675-700 with the Yen weakening a bit more. The current technical picture is somewhat muddy and the next 1-2 sessions may give the required clarity.
The Nifty (6779.40, +1.56%) bulls did a tremendous job as they repaired almost all the technical damage with a close near the weekly high, more importantly above the resistance of 6750-60 as required. A new high above 6820 now will signal the next phase of upmove towards 6950-7000. We have got a clear stoploss at 6665 now for the investors which may be raised with further rise.
COMMODITIES
Renewed strength in the Dollar has pushed Gold (1286.5) down below the 1300-1295 support region, reasserting the overall downtrend and opening up chances of further losses towards 1270 initially and then 1250 in the coming weeks. 1310 likely to be good near-term and medium-term Resistance now.
Silver (19.31) has also fallen alongwith Gold, but we note long-term trend Support in the 19.00-18.50 region. While an eventual break below 18.50 can be envisaged, it is not a clear given. It may take time at the least. And in case Silver bounces past 19.75-20.00, the chances of a decline will reduce. Note that the Gold-Silver ratio (66.54) may see some Resistance near 67.46, the previous high in Jun-13.
Copper (3.0450) continues to consolidate sideways within a relatively wide range of 2.98-3.08. It seems to be preparing for an eventual rise towards 3.15, but needs to break above Resistance at 3.07 to confirm.
Brent (109.07) and WTI (104.09) continue to move up in line with expectation, targeting 112 and 108 respectively. The Brent-WTI Spread (4.98) continues to be in an overall decline and can test 4.00, lending credence to the projections of 112 and 108 on Brent and WTI above.
FOREX
Dollar Index (79.90) has been struggling near 80.00-80.10 as expected and it may face more selling from 80.30 as well. The broad range of 79.25-80.50 may remain in force for some more time. Only on a break above 80.55-60, the trend will turn from down to up.
The Euro (1.3811) is trying to bounce from our support zone of 1.3790-60 and rally higher. From the broader perspective, for major gain it has to break above 1.40 and simultaneously Dollar Index must break below 79.
Dollar-Yen (102.65) has managed to hold above 101.50-20 so far to remain in the 10 week long broad range of 101-104. Now it is testing the resistance at 102.75-103.00 as expected and this resistance zone may push it down once again. We keep watching the long term support at 100.75-50 for major moves.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.76) is testing our resistance of 141.65-90 after finding buying support from 140.50-139.50 as expected. Now a break above 141.65-90 may take it higher towards the major resistance of 143.50.
Pound (1.6794) has finished the small correction and resumed its major uptrend in line with our expectation. It may reach 1.7000-50 in the next 1-2 weeks as the short term momentum remains intact above 1.6730-10.
Aussie (0.9321) may trade in the range of 0.93-0.94 for some more time before making a decisive move. Bulls may attempt to push it higher from 0.9325 or even 0.9300-0.9270. Our bias is neutral for the moment.
Dollar-Rupee (60.2950) made a weekly high at 60.49 but failed to break above our supply zone of 60.50-60. A break below 60.20-15 may weaken it further towards 59.80-60 but the cue from the other EM currencies keep the possibility of another bounce alive. All in all, our stance remains bearish below 60.60 as only a break above 60.60 would confirm a rise to 60.90-61.00.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.70%) and 5Yr (1.72%) both bounced from 2.63% and 1.64% respectively. They are currently trading just below resistance at current levels. A break above the resistances and we may see the yields target 2.75% and 1.75% respectively. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.98%) has remained stable; it may come down further to test support near 0.95%-0.96% before we see a bounce.
The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.22%) saw a bounce from the support at -0.25% as expected. The 10Yr spread (-1.19%) is also up but the Euro (1.3811) dropped and is testing the 8-MA support on the 3-Day line charts. The German 10Yr (1.51%) saw a slight bounce and is now trading just above the support at 1.50%. A range of 1.45%-1.55% can be expected for now. A break beyond this range will give us further direction.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.10%) saw a bounce from the 2.03% levels along with the Dollar-Yen (102.65) which bounced after making a low near 101.86 on Thursday. The Japan 10-5Yr yield differential (0.41%) is trading at the support zone of 0.40%-0.41%. A bounce from here and the Japan 10Yr (0.60%) can target 0.65%.
The Indo- US 10Yr spread (6.13%) dropped and has come to test the support at current levels and may bounce from here. The Indian 10 Yr GOI yields (8.85%) saw a fall from near 9.00% and may now drop further to test the support near 8.75% before a bounce back to 9.00% and beyond.
DATA TODAY
No major data release today.

FRIDAY' s DATA
No major data release on Friday.


RANGE 141.32- 142.10

RANGE 1.3790-1.3850

RANGE 1.6734-1.6828

RANGE 0.8796-0.8849

RANGE 102.19-102.68

Forex Knowledge 18 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 18 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

RANGE 140.70-141.79

RANGE 1.3863-1.3775

RANGE 1.6734-1.6828

RANGE 0.8836-0.8772

 RANGE 101.84-102.54

Forex Knowledge 17 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 17 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

E/J TODAY RANGES 141.97 - 140.57

E/U TODAY RANGES 1.3855 - 1.3776

  G/U TODAY RANGES 1.6881 - 1.6790

U/CHF TODAY RANGES 0.8773 - 0.8836

U/J TODAY RANGES 101.46 - 102.26

Forex Knowledge 16 APRIL 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 16 APRIL 2014 currency Report.