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Saturday, 18 February 2017

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Monday, 17 August 2015

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Tuesday, 17 June 2014

Forex Knowledge 17 JUNE 2014 currency Report.



Forex Knowledge 17 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


The Dow (16781.01, + 0.03%) has been steadily gaining over the last two days after the sharp fall but in January we will not have two consecutive down week so far. So the bulls would have to worry about until the 16600-300 breaks and next week turns out to be another down for the week. Dax (0.29%) was found in 9883.98, the support trendline and grew in January-may, tops, 9850-9800 as expected. The second raise 10300-400 still on the cards, as long as it remains above the 9800-700.
At the end of the current (Nikkei 15008.42, + 0.50%) for the repair of the ends above 15250 but significant support for repair can go a few times coming to a 14,700-650. Shanghai (2070.93,-0.72%) has achieved our original goal to 2080 of 2100-05, but the next goal, it has to be kept above support 2060-55.
Nifty (7533.55,-0.11%) were offended by the WPI as an error but tried to create a false bottom, near the intraday 7485. Stoploss long in aggressive would be to ensure the transition between the break below 7485 7485 7450. Any bounce would face selling pressure near 7580 7615. Careful stock picking can produce good results, even in this condition.
COMMODITIES
Commodities are all trading at low levels not only in copper.
(1271.80) in gold and silver (19.639) have fallen a little bit of dollar strength of currencies yesterday. Is a short-term rally in metals over? Or is this just a repair? We'll have to wait and see for a couple of sessions to confirm if the metals have continued a long-term downtrend.
Nymex WTI (106.64) and Brent (112.66) have both been suspended at higher levels after the recent rise in the past week. Need to get up from here or see some fixes before continuing the uptrend. The markets expect oil prices to a looming civil war in Iraq.
Copper (3.0600) is recovered from a well above the level of 3. 3.0-3.07 is valid for an indefinite period, and we will have to see if it rises over 3.07 3.10 in the short-term and focus on long-term downtrend.
FOREX
All currencies (except Sterling) stuck in a narrow range of the dollar itself is stuck in post-ECB's area. The dollar, the rupee is currently driven by internal factors and the data.
EUR (1.3564) tries to find strength to 1.3500-3475 support in the last 3-4 sessions, but confirmed only that a bullish reversal above 1.3630, then 1.3680. The Bias is neutral.
Dollar-yen (102.01) and trade in a few days, but the narrow 102.15 101.60 a 10 week long range 101-103 may continue for another few days. Euro-yen (138.38), try to keep holding up a weak way, but the downside risk is still likely in the testing of 137 is still there. Indicators show bullish reversal possible but which establish a break above 139.50-60.
The original objective of the 1.70 pounds (1.6964) violates any of the above, the Director-General would very much like the 1.6850 BOE said that the interest rate hike may come faster than expected. The rise may reach next target 1.71 levels as soon as 2-3 days to repair.
Aussie (0.9360) is pulled, warned yesterday and is testing major support area 0.9360-40. A Bounce here, a break of less than a large but can produce new 0.9340 take it to 0.93 or even lower. Keep an eye on the activities of the immediate price 0.9360-40.
Dollar-rupee (60.16) to achieve all the goals, and later for repair as long as the price of additional upside down 60.22 points stays above 60.00. Now, it could rise to 60.40-50 or even a major resistance area 60.80-90.
INTEREST RATES
India may WPI was shot the previous 6.1% vs. 5.2% of the depreciating rupee by 20 to 25 paisa for. 10 Yr India (8.65%) also shot up to support close to 8.5%, as expected, and you can now target the 8.70 percent in the short term. No space for the rise of the US consumer price index is to be released today.
UK 10-5 yr yield differential (0.66%) has dropped sharply and stocks than the 0.74 percent of the resistance near Iraq is part of the concern. The pound fell slightly (from 1.6964) ranged from 1.70 1.69 yesterday and can remain in the area close by.
US 5 (v) (1.70%), 10 v (2.59%) and 30 Yr (3.39) are almost stable. US 10-5 Yr yield (0.90%) is stable now, and can recover from 0.94%. But can not negate the fall towards 0.87% right now.

The Japanese and German yields are also trading lower Euro (1.3564) and the dollar yen (102.04) weakened slightly against the u.s. dollar today.








Monday, 16 June 2014

Forex Knowledge 16 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 16 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


Asia-pac is in a negative mood this morning as the violence in Iraq increases. The impacts are not noticeable yet but the possibility of escalation is always there and the markets are trying to assess this risk.
Dow (16775.74, +0.25%) has lost almost all of the previous week'a gains but after January we haven't got two consecutive down weeks so far. So bulls would not be concerned till 16600-300 gets broken and the next week turns out to be another down week. The Dax (9912.87, -0.26%) has found support from the trendline and the January and May tops in 9850-9800 as expected. Another push up to 10300-400 remains on cards as long as it stays above 9800-700.
The Nikkei (15003.83, -0.62%) correction has extended to 14850 already and the correction may go on for some more time with major support coming in 14700-650. The Shanghai (2070.17, -0.03%) has broken above 2055-61 to spike up sharply and may reach 2080-2105 now but another down leg may be pending before any major reversal.
Nifty (7542.10, +1.41%) has broken below 7580 to fall sharply to 7525. The fall may extend to 7500 and 7450 below 7525 and any bounce would face selling pressure near 7580-7615. Stay out of the main index for a while but cautious stock picking may yield good results even in this condition.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1281.26) has been rising towards earlier levels of 1300. The coming sessions may be bullish while Gold may enter into the crucial 1300-1325 levels where it may be ranged in the near term.
Silver (19.778) has stretched its rally nearing towards 20. A break above 20 may take it higher to the crucial 20.5 levels from where we may see a correction. Overall the near term is bullish within a long term down trend.
Nymex WTI (107.27) has come off a bit but is trading higher near 107. Near term remains bullish with a target of 110.
Brent (112.72) is trading higher after the sharp up move last week. If the rise sustains above 114 we may see a target of 116-116.20 in the near term. We need to see if it continues to rise from here or pause for some sessions before resuming its rise. Note that a crucial resistance is coming up near 114. Overall the near term is bullish.
Copper (3.0445) has bounced after the better Chinese IIP and Retail Sales data on Friday. The earlier range of 3.00-3.07 remains intact for now as we may see some consolidation in this range for a few sessions now. Overall long term trend remains down.
FOREX
The possibility of rising rates by the central banks are getting increasing every day with the BOE clearly signaling a rise sooner than expected by the markets with the Pound making multi-year highs now. It makes any rate cut in India tougher and Rupee weaker.
Euro (1.3539) is trying to find strength from the support area of 1.3500-3475 for the last 3-4 sessions but that bullish reversal will be confirmed only on a break above 1.3630 and then 1.3680. The bias is neutral now.
Dollar-Yen (101.87) may test the support area of 101.40-20 before it finds any sustained buying. The 9 week long range of 101-103 may continue for a few more days. The Euro-Yen (137.92) is trying to hold its ground in a very weak manner but the downside risk of testing 137 or even 136 levels is clearly there with increasing probability.
Pound (1.6982) is close to achieving our initial target of 1.70 after breaking out above 1.6850 very sharply as the BOE Governor commented that a rate hike may come sooner than expected. This rise may reach the next target of 1.71 levels very soon.
The Aussie (0.9400) has broken above 0.9410, the last swing high, to confirm the intermediate uptrend and is close to testing the 7 month high of 0.9461 now. Still the lack of bullish momentum may bring some downside risk of seeing 0.93 on the table. Stay cautious.
Dollar-Rupee (59.77) broke above 59.45 to enter our target area of 59.75-60.00 but must trade above 59.80 today to continue the rally. In that case, 60.10 may be possible target but keep an eye on the entire supply zone of 59.80-60.25.
INTEREST RATES
The US 5Yr (1.69%), 10Yr (2.59%) and the 30Yr (3.40) are all lower. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.90%) has dropped further and may test levels of 0.87%-0.85% in the near term.
The German US 2Yr differential (-0.43%) has also dropped targeting support near -0.50% on the weekly from where it may bounce back. The Euro (1.3539) is trading lower but if the Euro strengthens, we may see the yield differential go up. The German 10Yr (1.36%) has dropped and is below crucial resistance near 1.40%.
The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (1.99%) has come off from resistance near 2.04% as expected while the Dollar-Yen (101.86) is trading lower. USDJPY is ranged in the 101-102 region for now and may remain range bound for a few more sessions. The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.41%) and the Japan 10Yr (0.59%) all lower than last week.

The 10Yr GOI (8.59%) has moved up from support near 8.5% as expected amd may now move higher towards 8.70%.







Friday, 13 June 2014

Forex Knowledge 13 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 13 JUNE 2014 currency Report.



The BOJ has kept interest rates unchanged and the size of the u.s. market will be a correction, which spreads to global markets. It is time to keep an eye on the commodities, especially oil.
The Dow (16734.19,-0.65%) has already lost almost all of the previous week's gains, but in the month of January, we do not have two consecutive down week so far. So the bulls would have to worry about until the 16600-300 breaks and next week turns out to be another down for the week. Dax (9938.70,-0.11%) correct too, but immediately the trendline support 9850 can come in aid of the Bulls. The second raise 10300-400 still on the cards, as long as it remains above the 9800-700.
The Nikkei (14878.00,-0.64%) and repair, the repair is extended to 14850 could go on for a while already significant support coming to the 14,700-650. Shanghai (2058.31, + 0.32%) has been trying to emerge as a weak way past 3 sessions, but it has to get before highs 2055-61.2055-61 range must be hard out to signal a good rally.
Nifty (7649.90, + 0.30%) and major uptrend is already partially discounted improved the consumer price index was released today after market hours. Now the big transfer will only break 7580 7700 differently. Keep an eye on 7580 7580 as now just a break below may signal a deeper correction.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1272.96) has risen since the last 6 sessions for the almost immediate protest near 1278 1280, while Silver (19.55) is also heading towards the importance of 19.66. You need to look at where the metals can break those levels or gets pushed back to the previous level. The overall long-term trend is down.
Nymex WTI (107.29) have increased in the next few weeks, breaking above 102.25 violence in Iraq gives a bullish sign threatens oil supplies. It will now target the 110 level in the short term.
Brent (112.81) has also risen quite to our desires. As I said, the prices of the contraction seems to have finally ended, and this can start a fresh bulls targeting the 115-117 in the near future. Overall, the oil market is bullish.
Copper (3.0255) has fallen targeting 3 2.90 in the coming weeks. 2.90-3.05 region in the region can still sometimes we choose it. Overall, the long-term trend is down.
FOREX
The dollar has faced some of the large companies, in particular, the attack on the pound. Perhaps now is the status of the risk-and thus confirms the major currencies.
EUR (1.3558) trying to find the strength to support the region, once again, that the 1.3500-3475 bullish reversal confirmed only above 1.3630, then 1.3680. The Bias is neutral.
Dollar-yen (101.78) is trading below 101.95-85 support area and will now be able to test the 101.40-20 support area before running the buying. 9 weeks long range 101-103 may continue for another few days. That
Euro-yen (137.99) trying to recover on the back of a somewhat tighter Euro but there is clearly a risk of testing the levels of 137.
Pound (1.6945) broke out in a very sharply above 1.6850 Markit reported faster growth in manufacturing in the UK in April and the BOE, the Director-General said that the interest rate hike may come faster than expected. This rise can achieve the 1.70-71 very soon.
Aussie (0.9412) has broken down before the last swing high, strengthen 0.9410 uptrend and a near 7-month high of testing and 0.9461 now. The Weekly close above 0.9409 would add to the bullish feeling.
No cue is from anywhere to any decisive move in the dollar-rupee (59.25), which uses another sideways session uptrend fully intact. We are still waiting for the next stage of the rally and 59.45 above confirms the significant support is still a 59.00
INTEREST RATES
US 5 (v) (1.70%), 10 (v) (2.60%) and a 30 Yr (3.41) have fallen. United States 10-5 Yr yield spread (0.90%) to extend its fall and can either stay ranged from 1.0 to 0.9 in the region or come off more of 0.87 in the next week.
German-US 2 Yr difference (-0.43%) has dropped even further, and may target-0.50% on a weekly basis from which it can recover. EUR (1.35570) grow to support close to the 1.3520 keeps well. The Euro may strengthen towards 1.36, which can increase the return on the price differences. German 10 Yr (1.39%) has fallen strangely but may move once again towards the 1.40% 1.3%.
The United States and Japan, 10 Yr yield differential (2.00%) came off of 2.0% as the dollar-yen (101.77) fell off sharply. The Japanese 10-5 Yr yield spread (0.43%) is dropped from the resistance, as expected, Japan 10 Yr (0.60%) remained stable.

10 Yr India (8.53%) declined slightly and may test of 8.5% before rising from there. A break below the 8.50% may push the 8.30-8.28% in the medium term.








Thursday, 12 June 2014

Forex Knowledge 12 JUNE 2014 currency Report.

Forex Knowledge 12 JUNE 2014 currency Report.


The drop in World Bank forecast for growth in 2014 from 3.2% to 2.8% has affected nearly all the global markets including the lowest volatile market of the US and the Asia-Pac is feeling the heat too.
It was mentioned that the price action in Dow (16843.88, -0.60%) is somewhat reminiscent of the September 2012 top, warranting caution and now the biggest single-day correction in last 1 month has emerged. Only on a break below 16800, this correction will extend to the major support area in 16600-300. The Dax (9949.81, -0.79%) has corrected too but the immediate trendline support at 9850 may come in aid for the bulls. Another push up to 10300-400 remains on cards as long as it stays above 9800-700.
The Nikkei (14952.77, -0.77%) correction has extended to 14850 already and the correction may go on for some more time. The Shanghai (2048.97, -0.29%) has been trying to rise in a weak manner for the last 2 sessions but that is getting resisted at the prior highs in 2055-61. This 2055-61 area must be firmly broken to signal a good rally.
Nifty (7626.85, -0.39%) lost all of its intraday gains just after touching 7700, implying that as expected, the correction from 7680 was unfinished and may finish at 7540. Keep an eye on 7580 as now a break below 7580 may signal a corrective mode or at least a sideways mode.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1260.44) is trading above crucial 1260 levels, and if this sustains we may see 1280 in the coming sessions. Near term is bullish while the overall long term is still bearish.
Silver (19.18) made a high of 19.33 yesterday but came off from there slightly. It may target 19.4-19.5 in the coming sessions and a break above 19.5 may take it higher towards 20-20.5. But there are chances of resistance near 19.5 holding which would then keep the prices ranged below 19.5.
Nymex WTI (104.61) has moved up and is targeting 105.22-105.25 in the near term while the overall trend remains up.
Brent (110.35) is in the last leg of the contracting movement that started in 2012. It is ranged in a very narrow 108.5-111 region and as said earlier, any break on either side of the range may initiate a sharp movement. Bias is bullish with a near term target of 112.
Copper (3.0425) is ranged within the 3.01-3.07 region and may continue to consolidate sideways for a few sessions before deciding its further direction. A fall towards 2.95-2.90 is not fully negated yet. We need to wait and watch for any signal of further movement. Overall long term trend remains down.
FOREX
Euro (1.3545) has lost nearly all of the latest gain after creating the major bottom at 1.35, contrary to our expectation. We must watch the price action at the support area of 1.3500-3475 now before taking any stance though the bullish view is still not negated fully.
Dollar-Yen (102.10) has tested exactly the support area of 101.95-85 but the Dollar bulls need a break above the 9 week long range of 101-103 to resume the rally. The Euro-Yen (138.30) is trying to bounce on the back of somewhat firmer Euro but the downside risk of testing 137 levels is clearly there.
Pound (1.6800) is still contained inside the previous week range but is approaching the upper end of the range and the break out level at 1.6850 once again. Keep an eye on 1.6690-40 for support and 1.6850 for resistance.
The Aussie (0.9374) has tested but failed to break above 0.9410, the last swing high, to confirm the intermediate uptrend. 2-34 days of consolidation before any breakout would be more beneficial for the bulls.
No cue is coming from anywhere for any decisive move in Dollar-Rupee (59.27) which spent another sideways session with the uptrend fully intact. We still wait for a break above 59.45 to confirm the next phase of rally and the major support remains unchanged at 59.00.
INTEREST RATES
The US 5Yr (1.71%), 10Yr (2.64%) and the 30Yr (3.47) have all gone up. The US 10-5Yr yield spread (0.94%) has been falling sharply since Nov13 and may either remain ranged in the 1.0-0.9 region or come off further towards 0.87 in the coming weeks. There is little more room for the yields to rise in the coming sessions while the market awaits the US CPI next week.
The German US 2Yr differential (-0.38%) has dropped beyond the support near -0.28% but is nearing another support at -0.40-0.50% on the weekly from where it may bounce back. The Euro (1.3542) saw a slight up move from support near 1.3520. If the bounce sustains and the Euro strengthens, we may see the yield differential go up. The German 10Yr (1.402%) has moved up well from support near 1.37-1.40% and may now move higher.
The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (2.04%) is rising and has broken above resistance near 2.0% as the Dollar-Yen (102.10) also moved up a bit from 101.85. The Japan 10-5Yr yield spread (0.573%) and the Japan 10Yr (0.60%) have risen and are testing resistance near current levels.

The 10Yr GOI (8.54%) has stretched its fall further and may test 8.5% before bouncing from there. A break below 8.50% may push it to 8.30-8.28% in the mid-term.